Posted on 11/13/2007 8:08:22 AM PST by Spiff
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Rudy Giuliani on top, Mitt Romney in second, and Fred Thompson sinking in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 27% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while Romney has moved up a couple of points to 16%. John McCain remains in third at 13% while Thompson is now tied with Mike Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul's support fell a point to 5% and no other Republican tops 2% (see recent daily numbers).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton is the top choice for 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Barack Obama earns the vote from 20% while former Senator John Edwards attracts 17%. Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% and no other candidate tops the 3% level among Likely Democratic Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).
Just 25% of Americans believe Democratic candidates have been “piling on” Clinton and attacking her unfairly. Democrats are more likely to believe that to be the case, but there is no gender gap on the issue.
New state election polls show Giuliani and McCain competitive with Clinton in Connecticut, Clinton competitive in Georgia, and Clinton doing well in Tennessee against anyone but Thompson. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss has solid leads over three potential challengers in his bid for re-election and former Senator Bill Frist is a very early favorite for the 2010 Governor’s election in Tennessee.
Romney is now seen as the most conservative Republican candidate, a crown previously worn by Thompson. Huckabee is gaining fast, hampered only by a relatively low level of name recognition. Polling data from the past week has been kind to Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.
Among Democrats, the campaign has become a tale of two narratives that will collide in Iowa on January 3. In one narrative, Clinton’s campaign has been hurt by the stumbles of recent weeks while the other considers her the dominant frontrunner. Both have the virtue of being true.
Finally, 61% of Americans now want U.S. troops to come home from Iraq within the year.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily, Monday through Friday. The Presidential Tracking Poll will be updated seven days a week beginning Saturday, December 1, 2007. Daily results are based upon a four day rolling average and new results are posted each day by noon Eastern.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
None should fear it, and it would certainly give Republicans/Conservatives/Independents and even Democrats a much needed SERIOUS airing of issues.
Imagine real debates, one on one. How refreshing. They are all capable men, each would do fine. And their differences would be interesting.
AND I would bet it would put the GOP ahead in even generic polling, and give us a boost against the Dim Congress and the DNC candidates for President.
No.
Next.
OK...if what so many say is true, which is, that Fred is “lazy” or not campaigning hard enough...I know he (or his staff) has got to be reading the MSM reports as well as FR...where many of his best supporters are.
Either:
A-he doesn’t want to win
or
B-his staff knows something he doesn’t...and knows that his way will work despite the naysayers
I would lean “B” because why do all that stuff and not want to win it?
I see management has deleted the lie from your title.
Fred’s supporters who fail to see the direction of his campaign (I support him, but don’t think he has much of a chance right now) remind me of the folks here who were saying even in Nov. 06 that there was NO WAY the GOP would lose either the House or the Senate and they might even gain - and of course polls are meaningless.
They were wrong then, and they are wrong now.
With your method of interpretation no poll would ever mean anything. This poll shows a very consistant trend of Thompson losing support for this entire month untill Fred’s support going down met Huckabee’s support coming up. You can spin all day long like a top but it is not going to change the fact that Thompson’s campaign is in a total tailspin at the moment. I have to wonder if when Fred finally drops out of the race you will say that the media reports are simply a fraud and the Fred actually fights on.
Yes, and that's my point. Sometimes the base compromises on policy in order to choose someone who's more charismatic, handsome, or has a better biography, or speaking voice, or whatever. It's a fashion show as well as a policy contest. That's why GWB won.
Hunter never got off the blocks because, for whatever reason, the base didn't take his candidacy seriously. Maybe cuz he's just a congressman. Maybe he's a little stiff. A little square. I don't know.
The roots picked up on Fred cuz he seemed like he'd have the charisma, looks, popularity to win the day. Funny thing is it's in those areas he seems to falter the most. Or maybe it's just me.
I would lean “B” because why do all that stuff and not want to win it?”
Because that is how campaign professionals pay their bills? It is not that they don’t want to win, but they are going through the motions, getting a paycheck, looking for the next gig, etc. At least that’s my experience with campaign professionals. It’s all about them...not the candidate.
That's not a fact, it's your opinion.
As for my "method of interpretation," go crack a statistics text and leave the science to the grownups.
The roots picked up on Fred cuz he seemed like he’d have the charisma, looks, popularity to win the day. Funny thing is it’s in those areas he seems to falter the most. Or maybe it’s just me.”
I think you are quite right. That deal where he spoke for a few seconds in Florida was just plain weird. Who the hell wouldn’t kill to speak before a large audience of GOP faithful and deliver some good applause lines. Yet, Fred decided to retire early. That’s just weird.
Lol, I will leave you to your spinning, but the fact remains that this poll has been extremely consistant in showing a trend and 5% gap is quite significant in politics.
Headline fixed!
I complained about it. I said this is a common tactic for Spiff. Lying is his strong suit.
P.S.
I know I’m not the only one who complained!
Didn’t mean to take credit for the fix.
Yup I too would very much like to see Duncan Hunter as part of any administration that wins, and Tom Tancredo also. They are both respected conservatives that deserve consideration.
I’ll get worried when his numbers are still in the tank about 12 hours before the primary, but even then I would still be optimistic. That’s Fred...
“A-he doesn’t want to win
or
B-his staff knows something he doesn’t...and knows that his way will work despite the naysayers”
You left out option C....that he’s just not very good at this.
Again, I’m not slagging the candidate, but only the most devoted FredHead fails to see that FDT has been under performing. Remember the couple of months before he declared, the battle cry was “Just wait till Fred joins the race” it seems to me that his expectations keep getting rounded down....”Just wait till he starts really campaigning” “Just wait till he starts his TV ads”
“Just wait till......(insert your favorite one here)
I thought he was great as Arthur Branch, but Artur Branch isn’t the candidate.
The only way to make that sort of thing work is if it comes from a leader. It makes him look secure in his position and gets participants who are eager for exposure. But, even so, it is not worth the risk in a world of "gotcha" media, looking for the slightest gaffe.
Perhaps a challenge to debate specific points via editorials would be more viable, especially if the venue was web based. Say, if a news site sponsored it.
I thought he was great as Arthur Branch, but Artur Branch isn’t the candidate.Dick Morris, is that you?
Exactly. But will they wake up and figure it out before it is too late?
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