Posted on 11/13/2007 8:08:22 AM PST by Spiff
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Rudy Giuliani on top, Mitt Romney in second, and Fred Thompson sinking in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 27% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while Romney has moved up a couple of points to 16%. John McCain remains in third at 13% while Thompson is now tied with Mike Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul's support fell a point to 5% and no other Republican tops 2% (see recent daily numbers).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton is the top choice for 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Barack Obama earns the vote from 20% while former Senator John Edwards attracts 17%. Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% and no other candidate tops the 3% level among Likely Democratic Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).
Just 25% of Americans believe Democratic candidates have been “piling on” Clinton and attacking her unfairly. Democrats are more likely to believe that to be the case, but there is no gender gap on the issue.
New state election polls show Giuliani and McCain competitive with Clinton in Connecticut, Clinton competitive in Georgia, and Clinton doing well in Tennessee against anyone but Thompson. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss has solid leads over three potential challengers in his bid for re-election and former Senator Bill Frist is a very early favorite for the 2010 Governor’s election in Tennessee.
Romney is now seen as the most conservative Republican candidate, a crown previously worn by Thompson. Huckabee is gaining fast, hampered only by a relatively low level of name recognition. Polling data from the past week has been kind to Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.
Among Democrats, the campaign has become a tale of two narratives that will collide in Iowa on January 3. In one narrative, Clinton’s campaign has been hurt by the stumbles of recent weeks while the other considers her the dominant frontrunner. Both have the virtue of being true.
Finally, 61% of Americans now want U.S. troops to come home from Iraq within the year.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily, Monday through Friday. The Presidential Tracking Poll will be updated seven days a week beginning Saturday, December 1, 2007. Daily results are based upon a four day rolling average and new results are posted each day by noon Eastern.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
If romney is actually three points under 16 = 13, and McCain is one points over, and Huck and Thompson are two points over, then we have a whole new ball game. Everyone is tied at 13. Sheesh
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
I think it is very much too late. If he manages to eke out a victory in SC, then, maybe that will breathe some life into him. But I can’t see Fred winning the nomination (sadly, b/c I am for him).
I’m not sure what happened to his campaign. He was a very promising candidate. It seemed that this cycle was tailor made for him. He had some brilliant days, including his Leno announcement. But after that? Nothing happened.
Nor does it equal 8 -- within the MOE, Romney could be as low as 12 and Thompson as high as 15.
That said, the extremes of the MOE are more often seen on a 50/50 proposition. For lower values, you are much less likely to see results off the "true" value by as much as the MOE.
All in all, what we're seeing is the net result of the relentless negative drumbeat against Thompson coupled with some key endorsements that Giuliani and Romney have picked up. Now that Thompson has started running ads, picked up the campaign pace, and received the endorsement of the NRLC, I expect to see a turnaround in a few days.
Ain't life cruel? :-}
I am not sure what happened to Fred. I really feel like the field we have has been better overall than in past years.
You're just full of lies and disinformation aren't you? Fred is not last in this poll. As for the margin of error, each candidate's numbers are +/-4.
I think a lot of Romney’s future depends on Thompson. Thompson’s poor polling makes SC make or break for him. If he loses SC, will he drop out? If he does, that helps Romney in the bigger states such as CA (Romney is currently around 20% behind Guiliani). If Thompson lingers, that will effectively undercut Romney, giving Giuliani a large portion of the delegates needed...
I’m fairly certain that at this stage, it will be Romney or Giuliani.
If somehow it is McCain that will be one of the greatest comebacks since George Foreman.
The only real question is whether Romney’s early victories will pull the rug out from under Rudy in FL and on Feb. 5. If yes, then Romney wins it all. If no, then Giuliani wins it all.
But as for Huckabee, Fred and McCain, I don’t see them doing much.
This is how money wins elections, Romney the most Conservative?
How? Other then he has been tirelessly working the circuit, wereas Fred really hasn’t been.
Fred Thompson is tied with Mike Huckabee for last place according to these poll results. That is what I said and that is the truth. I never said that Fred was alone in last place.
BTW Spiff, I am a Hunter supporter. You can see exactly how much polls mean to me.
That's because they had like a one year head start. Where are all the idiots who said the race started to early? either not in the race or sucking wind. And ppl can whine about the MSM all they want, but that doesn't make it go away. Gotta deal with it.
“I’m still rooting for Fred to get it together.” ?
I’m still rooting for Republican primary voters to “get it togetehr.”
To wake up and start reading the positions and votes for these candidates.
Rudy: pro-sanctuary city, anti-gun, anti-life
Romney: pro-socialized medicine, weak-kneed conservative
Huckabee: Big spender, pro-Amnesty
McCain: pro-amnesty, believes in global warming
This should be a three way race between Thompson, Hunter and Tancredo
Actually, Since Fred started campaigning in October, his numbers have dropped steadily and drastically. His campaign ads and appearances actually tend to work against him. The more people see him, the more his support drops off.
I think a lot of Romney’s future depends on Thompson. Thompson’s poor polling makes SC make or break for him. If he loses SC, will he drop out? If he does, that helps Romney in the bigger states such as CA (Romney is currently around 20% behind Guiliani). If Thompson lingers, that will effectively undercut Romney, giving Giuliani a large portion of the delegates needed...”
Interesting points. If Fred fails to win SC, then the rationale for his campaign seems to really crater and he really should quit. I think that is likely as the money will be gone. If the Southerner can’t win in SC over the MA governor, then, he will have to move on.
Now if Romney wins SC, look for the folks at Bob Jones to claim victory! And, in fact, they might well have the right to do so. Perhaps the announcement that the RR is dead will be sown to be premature?
It's an absolute bold-faced lie. L.Ron has 5% and there's a gaggle comprising 2%. One of the gaggle is in last place.
You wouldn't know the truth if it slapped you in the face and called you Charlie.
FT needs to make some major policy speeches, and do some town hall meetings.
Also, what if he challenges Mitt or others to a one on one debate?
That could shake things up a bit.
Oh, by the way, seen the news yet? This is an endorsement brought about from the grassroots level, not a single bought-off official.
True we don't know for sure and anything can happen. But if I were Giuliani I'd much rather have those first four or five states behind me than waiting for ones that "may" materialize into victories down the road. Human nature being what it is once everyone in the GOP sees Romney winning early on they'll tend to rally around him. I'm still hoping Duncan Hunter can gain traction but realistically it's beginning to look like Romney's to lose.
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