Rasmussen Daily Poll (Romney takes 2nd place/16%)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 13 November 2007 | Rasmussen Reports

[Spiff]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Rudy Giuliani on top, Mitt Romney in second, and Fred Thompson sinking in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 27% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while Romney has moved up a couple of points to 16%. John McCain remains in third at 13% while Thompson is now tied with Mike Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul's support fell a point to 5% and no other Republican tops 2% (see recent daily numbers).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton is the top choice for 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Barack Obama earns the vote from 20% while former Senator John Edwards attracts 17%. Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% and no other candidate tops the 3% level among Likely Democratic Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).

Just 25% of Americans believe Democratic candidates have been “piling on” Clinton and attacking her unfairly. Democrats are more likely to believe that to be the case, but there is no gender gap on the issue.

New state election polls show Giuliani and McCain competitive with Clinton in Connecticut, Clinton competitive in Georgia, and Clinton doing well in Tennessee against anyone but Thompson. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss has solid leads over three potential challengers in his bid for re-election and former Senator Bill Frist is a very early favorite for the 2010 Governor’s election in Tennessee.

Romney is now seen as the most conservative Republican candidate, a crown previously worn by Thompson. Huckabee is gaining fast, hampered only by a relatively low level of name recognition. Polling data from the past week has been kind to Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.

Among Democrats, the campaign has become a tale of two narratives that will collide in Iowa on January 3. In one narrative, Clinton’s campaign has been hurt by the stumbles of recent weeks while the other considers her the dominant frontrunner. Both have the virtue of being true.

Finally, 61% of Americans now want U.S. troops to come home from Iraq within the year.

The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily, Monday through Friday. The Presidential Tracking Poll will be updated seven days a week beginning Saturday, December 1, 2007. Daily results are based upon a four day rolling average and new results are posted each day by noon Eastern.

Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

[bethtopaz]

It seems that the more people hear and see Thompson, the less inclined they are to support him.

I guess the Arthur Branch image is wearing thin. Hmmmm.

[JRochelle]

Oh my.

Arguing with JR gets you nowhere, only makes one look like a fool.

[snarkybob]

“Fred’s supporters who fail to see the direction of his campaign (I support him, but don’t think he has much of a chance right now) remind me of the folks here who were saying even in Nov. 06 that there was NO WAY the GOP would lose either the House or the Senate and they might even gain - and of course polls are meaningless.”

Sadly, I’ve noticed that same thing. That’s why I referenced the “The MSM fear Fred” That’s so much BS. I think FDT would be a fine president, except that I no longer believe he can win. To claim that Fred is really out front, or has some Brer Rabbit trick up his sleeve is, IMHO just a bit delusional.

[LS]

It's silly to ascribe to ALL pollsters some "fear" of Fred or any other candidate. They all show the same three facts:

1) Rudy is way ahead nationally, anywhere from 6-12 points in most polls;

2) In the primary states, 3 of the first 4 show a clear Mitt victory; SC up in the air; then after that, Rudy is leading pretty substantially in most of the next wave of primaries.

3) and McCain, in all the SurveyUSA polls, LEADS all Republicans in head-to-head polls vs. Hillary (although Rudy still beats her, only not quite as much as McCain), and Mitt isn't close to beating her.

[mouske]

“He’s a little tired and slow, which doesn’t work well in the shark pool.”

I think maybe voters may be tired of accepting one of the sharks. Thompson is the only candidate that will answer questions with a yes answer or a no answer - and not both to the same question. I saw him interviewed by David Gregory on TV this morning. The interviewers appear to not know how to respond to the direct answers.

[bethtopaz]

“I think Fred thought it would just come to him.”
*************
I think you’re right.

[Spiff]

This is Rasmussen's Daily Tracking Poll chart. According to this chart, Thompson is tied for last place. Of the frontrunner candidates, the ones that are being tracked on charts and tables like this, Thompson is tied for last place with Huckabee for today's Rasmussen poll results. That's not a lie no matter how you want to paint it or how effective you are at having the thread title changed.

I don't like being called a liar as I'm not one. I can be wrong. I may be wrong here on the whole margin of error interpretation. You can call me wrong as I've been wrong before. But a liar, I am not.

And if you're going for the whole statistical tie thing (for the first time, might I add) then technically Thompson is now statistically tied (within 8 points, by your definition) with Ron Paul who is at 5% and one point above a statistical tie with the losers who are at 2%. It's a pointless argument and it cuts both ways.

[ConservativeDude]

agreed entirely. Fred would actually be a great President. But he ain’t really out in front now....

[Petronski]

According to this chart, Thompson is tied for last place.

False. The chart does not show all persons in the poll. The lie that was deleted from your headline didn't say anything about the chart, it said Thompson was last in the poll...most plainly a lie.

I don't like being called a liar . . .

SO STOP LYING.

[FastCoyote]

“Let’s hear another “WooHoo!” from the Mitt Romney supporters!!”

Romney will split off large chunks of the party. Some because of Mormonism. Others because he is Bush Lite and won’t fight the Democrats once he is nominated. WooHoo, the end of the party.

[snarkybob]

“agreed entirely. Fred would actually be a great President. But he ain’t really out in front now”

Again it’s only my opinion, but his support never surged the way I excepted it to. I honestly thought that within 6 weeks of declaring he would lead the others. Maybe not by a lot, but I never expected him to be unable to close, and that was when he was still generating a great deal of enthusiasm and mystique. I just don’t think he has the horses to keep up with other top tier candidates. Plus it’s not just that he trails, but he seems to be trending down, while Huckabee is trending up.

[Wallace T.]

It seems that the more people hear and see Thompson, the less inclined they are to support him.

My favorite in this race is Duncan Hunter, as he is the most consistent, all-around conservative. Fred Thompson, while not as consistent, is still far better than Giuliani, Romney, and McCain. Conservatives in the GOP need a champion, and he will either be Hunter or Thompson. The victory of Giuliani or Romney in the race for the Republican nomination will be the posthumous triumph of Nelson Rockefeller in the liberal-conservative struggle in the GOP that started in the 1930s and the effective renouncement of the heritage and political philosophy of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan.

[ConservativeDude]

Romney will split off large chunks of the party. Some because of Mormonism. Others because he is Bush Lite and won’t fight the Democrats once he is nominated. WooHoo, the end of the party.”

You could say the same thing about Huckabee and Giuliani. If either of them are nominated, large chunks fall off.

Thompson was supposed to be the mainstream conservative candidate of consensus, but he can’t campaign apparently.

[bethtopaz]

Remember when Huckabee challenged Thompson to a one-on-one debate and was scoffed at? Bitter irony, to say the least...
***********************
I remember that. Thompson had not yet participated in a debate with the other candidates. He said he preferred a Lincoln/Douglas style debate - one on one.

Huckabee took him up on it and actually sent him an R.S.V.P.

CNN offered to host the debate and a group of Republican women in New Hampshire offered to sponser it.

If my facts are wrong, let me know.

But this would have been a great opportunity for Fred to “strut his stuff” at no cost to him.

He said “No.”

That “No” spoke loudly to me that he just wasn’t interested in doing what it takes to earn the nomination.

[FastCoyote]

“You could say the same thing about Huckabee and Giuliani. If either of them are nominated, large chunks fall off.”

Quite true. That’s why I’m not ready to give up on Fred yet.

[4integrity]

For the record, I haven’t yet committed to a particular R candidate. And, with all due respect to Fred Thompson supporters......what Fred needs to find is some ENERGY.

I witnessed FT speak at Presidency IV and it sure didn’t look or sound like he REALLY wanted this job. Lord knows, being Pres of the US is a thankless job....so, think you REALLY have to want the job. Fred needs to convince people, in words and actions, that he is truly interested in and has the ability to take on the toughest job in the world.

[LexBaird]

B-his staff knows something he doesn’t...and knows that his way will work despite the naysayers

Or C: His campaign staff think they do, but are wrong.

I've long thought, regardless of Thompson's positions, his campaign strategy sucks. Now maybe I'm wrong, and his cunning plan is just about to be revealed, and I'll be stunned by it's unconventional brilliance. But I doubt it. At this point, all the cards are just about played, all the trumps are known, and the only unknown is a gaffe that implodes some candidate.

[Drew68]

Well, then I guess the Republican party base no longer exists.

No, the base still exists. They are just placing more importance on issues other than abortion, gays and guns. Guiliani's lead isn't manufactured. It is real. And outside of Free Republic, there are many conservative voters who are giving him their support.

[karnage]

Fred seems to be treating this whole thing as a lark. At first, I thought his unorthodox tactics were fresh and exciting. But the more I see, the more I see an actor playing a role...

[ConservativeDude]

And outside of Free Republic, there are many conservative voters who are giving him their support.”

This is quite true.

He may well win the nomination. The only question is whether Romney’s early wins will translate into momentum. No one “knows” the answer to that because it hasn’t happened yet. But that is at this late state the only variable and the answer to that will determine whether the nominee is Giuliani or Romney.