(Rasmussen) Daily Tracking Poll - 9 Nov 07 (goodbye statistical tie for 2nd)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9 November 2007 | Rasmussen Reports

[ReveBM]

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Friday, November 9th

[SNIP]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mike Huckabee back in single digits and Ron Paul gaining another percentage point of support in the very unsettled race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Rudy Giuliani remains on top with 23% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide. Fred Thompson earns 16% of the vote followed by John McCain at 13% and Mitt Romney at 11%. Mike Huckabee is now the top pick for 9% while Ron Paul’s support has inched up to 6%. No other Republican tops 1% (see recent daily numbers).

The muddled state of the GOP race may reflect growing frustration with the available choices. Rudy Giuliani is now viewed favorably by just 63% of GOP voters, matching his lowest rating of the year. Mitt Romney, who has a growing lead in New Hampshire, is viewed favorably by 54% of Republican voters nationwide, his lowest rating in several months. Fred Thompson is viewed favorably by 53%, his lowest total ever.

Bucking the trend is John McCain, now viewed favorably by 60% of GOP voters, near the high end of his measured support this year. McCain, however, also boasts very high unfavorable ratings among GOP voters--36%. Only Ron Paul, at 43% has higher unfavorable in the GOP field. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Republicans have a favorable opinion of the Congressman from Texas. Finally, Mike Huckabee’s numbers remained stable this week at 46% favorable, but 29% don’t know enough to offer any opinion at all (see history of favorable ratings for the candidates among all voters and among Republican voters.)

[SNIP]

[Kevmo]

oops, typo. Intrade link:

https://www.intrade.com/

Fred Thompson link, works for me but I’m not sure if it gets through the secure server.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=462622&z=1194634397388

[Ancesthntr]

I will not sit out the election. If Rudy were nominated, I would have no one to vote for on the Presidential line. Unless a third party candidate represents my views, it would be an undervote. I will vote in all other races that I may that have a candidate I can support. My complaint would then become that the Republican party nominated someone that I morally could not support. In that case, I also suppose that I would have to resign from the party that has left me.

I don't like Rudy at all (well, maybe on foreign/WOT policy, but that is IT), and I desperately don't want to see him get the nomination.

BUT.

If it is the very imperfect Rudy vs. the almost completely imperfect Hillary, my choice is clear. Sitting out the election (or this particular election) when you would have otherwise voted for a Republican is giving 1/2 of a vote to Hillary. If enough people do this, we have 1992 all over again. Do you think that this country was better off with 8 years of Clinton than another 4 of that idiot RINO, Bush 41? I don't...and I won't make the mistake of not voting "R" again. The Dems have such incredible baggage that I've made it my mission to keep them from power, as much as that decision is within my ability to influence it.

Me, I want Fred. He's not as good in my mind as Duncan Hunter (though he's at about 95% IMHO), but Hunter is unelectable. What good is a perfect candidate who can't win?

In other words, I follow General George S. Patton, Jr.'s motto that:

THE PERFECT IS THE ENEMY OF THE GOOD.

[dirtymac]

Yes, I agree. I am morally superior and if I cannot get a candidate that completely reflects my views (because mine are the most righteous), then I will not participate in the voting for a morally inferior.

Let the united States be stuck with a total and absolute corrupt and evil President. The evil effect will be felt for generations to come but I will not sully my hands with such participation. This will serve to teach America that they must come up to my standards and those others that think like me. This is called tough love

This attitude by any Republican is so absolutely stupid and repugnant it should be repudiated at any opportunity.

Why not just say that if your candidate is not nominated you will vote for Hillary. Stupid Stupid Stupid.

[Petronski]

That’s NOT a poll.

[jellybean]

Again I ask, where is the poll at this link:

Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.

http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

I'll lay odds that CaliforniaArchitect at that link is our very own Kevmo spreading his sunshine over at InTrade. Anyone want to take that bet?

[Kevmo]

Actually, I’m ko over there — acknowledged Hunter supporter.

[Kevmo]

True enough. If I could go back and change the post I’d remove “Here’s one” and put in “Here’s Intrade results” or something like that.

Thanks for the correction.

[The Pack Knight]

I expect McCain to drop our following New Hampshire, and possibly a couple of the lesser knowns as well. The lions’ share of those votes will likely go to Fred, bringing him at least even with Rudy, if not ahead by a few pts, but still within the margin of error.

I think you're right. I'll go further and say I'll be surprised if Tancredo makes it to January, and that I would not be at all surprised if Huckabee, Hunter, or both have dropped out by New Hampshire. McCain will drop out if he fails to win New Hampshire. Paul will probably stick it out until the convention a la Howard Dean.

I think it'll be down to Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, and maybe Paul by South Carolina, and perhaps down to 3 or even 2 by Feb. 5.

[The Pack Knight]

I’d worry that a “smoky back room” type convention would guarantee an Establishment RINO. Like Rudy.

I think you're exactly right. The more I've considered the possibility of a brokered convention, the more I think it plays to Rudy's favor. 1976 all over again, in other words, except there's no equivalent to Jesse Helms this time.

Fortunately, and for what it's worth, if Rudy is nominated in this fashion, it would likely be at the price of a conservative running mate, which I don't think he'd object to anyway. I know I've said this before, but my guess would be Mark Sanford, who I think is on Rudy's short list anyway, assuming Sanford wants the job.

Come to think of it, Sanford could be on another short list. Mentioning Jesse Helms and the 1976 convention brings up an intriguing, if somewhat unlikely possibility. If there is any sort of deadlock at the convention, there could be a move to draft a consensus candidate who isn't even currently running. Mark Sanford would certainly fit that bill, and he certainly seems to be positioning himself for a future Presidential run.

Of course, that move would require someone with real clout, and there simply isn't an "archconservative" of Helms' stature and influence out there today. Even Helms himself couldn't push his draft candidate through in 1976, though having to contend with Reagan didn't help.

It's definitely fun to speculate, but I'd much rather see Fred win outright so we don't have to worry about it.

[gpapa]

If it came down to a brokered convention a couple of things are likely to happen.

1. A platform fight will occur and it will be a battle royal.

2. Credentials will be challenged for those States which moved up their primaries against the RNC’s wishes.

[Mr Apple]

FRED IN '08.

[Darkwolf377]

Only Ron Paul, at 43% has higher unfavorable in the GOP field.

Ron Paul pulling ahead in SOMEthing! WooHoo! :D

[iowamark]

Ron Paul’s support has inched up to 6%.

In absolute terms, Ron Paul is pure evil. However, in a field with Rudy, Romney, and the Huckster; he looks comparatively normal.

[cajungirl]

This “I will sit it out” Dude is begging for attention and wants to disrupt. He is enjoying playing with everyone on this thread.

May I move that we ignore these people who are here to play and toy with serious people?

[Doofer]

This “I will sit it out” Dude is begging for attention and wants to disrupt. He is enjoying playing with everyone on this thread.

May I move that we ignore these people who are here to play and toy with serious people?

Actually 45.6% of the members in a Free Republic Opinion Poll say they're going to sit out the upcoming election if the chose is between Clinton or Rudy, so that Dude as you refer to him isn't alone.

that poll can be found here if you're interested in taking a look!

[cajungirl]

They freeped the poll. Hah!

[napscoordinator]

If you and the other {I can’t vote for XXX, because they don’t pass my purity test} sit out this election, please leave both the pubbie party and FR.

Actually it should be the Rudy supporters who should leave FR not those who have high morals. You mixed up those who should stay and those who should leave. This is a conservative website...Did you forget?????

[seemoAR]

The Communist Media is ramming the freaks down our throats and ignoring the good candidates.