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I’d worry that a “smoky back room” type convention would guarantee an Establishment RINO. Like Rudy.

I think you're exactly right. The more I've considered the possibility of a brokered convention, the more I think it plays to Rudy's favor. 1976 all over again, in other words, except there's no equivalent to Jesse Helms this time.

Fortunately, and for what it's worth, if Rudy is nominated in this fashion, it would likely be at the price of a conservative running mate, which I don't think he'd object to anyway. I know I've said this before, but my guess would be Mark Sanford, who I think is on Rudy's short list anyway, assuming Sanford wants the job.

Come to think of it, Sanford could be on another short list. Mentioning Jesse Helms and the 1976 convention brings up an intriguing, if somewhat unlikely possibility. If there is any sort of deadlock at the convention, there could be a move to draft a consensus candidate who isn't even currently running. Mark Sanford would certainly fit that bill, and he certainly seems to be positioning himself for a future Presidential run.

Of course, that move would require someone with real clout, and there simply isn't an "archconservative" of Helms' stature and influence out there today. Even Helms himself couldn't push his draft candidate through in 1976, though having to contend with Reagan didn't help.

It's definitely fun to speculate, but I'd much rather see Fred win outright so we don't have to worry about it.

If it came down to a brokered convention a couple of things are likely to happen.

1. A platform fight will occur and it will be a battle royal.

2. Credentials will be challenged for those States which moved up their primaries against the RNC’s wishes.