Posted on 11/08/2007 2:36:39 PM PST by Former Military Chick
WASHINGTON - U.S. defense officials have signaled that up-to-date attack plans are available if needed in the escalating crisis over Iran's nuclear aims, although no strike appears imminent.
The Army and Marine Corps are under enormous strain from years of heavy ground fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Still, the United States has ample air and naval power to strike Iran if President Bush decided to target nuclear sites or to retaliate for alleged Iranian meddling in neighboring Iraq.
Among the possible targets, in addition to nuclear installations like the centrifuge plant at Natanz: Iran's ballistic missile sites, Republican Guard bases, and naval warfare assets that Tehran could use in a retaliatory closure of the Straits of Hormuz, a vital artery for the flow of Gulf oil.
The Navy has an aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf area with about 60 fighters and other aircraft that likely would feature prominently in a bombing campaign. And a contingent of about 2,200 Marines are on a standard deployment to the Gulf region aboard ships led by the USS Kearsarge, an amphibious assault ship. Air Force fighters and bombers are available elsewhere in the Gulf area, including a variety of warplanes in Iraq and at a regional air operations center in Qatar.
But there has been no new buildup of U.S. firepower in the region. In fact there has been some shrinkage in recent months. After adding a second aircraft carrier in the Gulf early this year - a move that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said was designed to underscore U.S. long-term stakes in the region - the Navy has quietly returned to a one-carrier presence.
Talk of a possible U.S. attack on Iran has surfaced frequently this year, prompted in some cases by hard-line statements by White House officials. Vice President Dick Cheney, for example, stated on Oct. 21 that the United States would "not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon," and that Iran would face "serious consequences" if it continued in that direction. Gates, on the other hand, has emphasized diplomacy.
Bush suggested on Oct. 17 that Iran's continued pursuit of nuclear arms could lead to "World War III." Yet on Wednesday, in discussing Iran at a joint press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Bush made no reference to the military option.
"The idea of Iran having a nuclear weapon is dangerous, and, therefore, now is the time for us to work together to diplomatically solve this problem," Bush said, adding that Sarkozy also wants a peaceful solution.
Iran's conventional military forces are generally viewed as limited, not among the strongest in the Middle East. But a leading expert on the subject, Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says it would be a mistake to view the Islamic republic as a military weakling.
"Its strengths in overt conflict are more defensive than offensive, but Iran has already shown it has great capability to resist outside pressure and any form of invasion and done so under far more adverse and divisive conditions than exist in Iran today," Cordesman wrote earlier this year.
Cordesman estimates that Iran's army has an active strength of around 350,000 men.
At the moment, there are few indications of U.S. military leaders either advising offensive action against Iran or taking new steps to prepare for that possibility. Gates has repeatedly emphasized that while military action cannot be ruled out, the focus is on diplomacy and tougher economic sanctions.
Asked in late October whether war planning had been ramped up or was simply undergoing routine updates, Gates replied, "I would characterize it as routine." His description of new U.S. sanctions announced on Oct. 25 suggested they are not a harbinger of war, but an alternative.
A long-standing responsibility of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is to maintain and update what are called contingency plans for potential military action that a president might order against any conceivable foe. The secret plans, with a range of timelines and troop numbers, are based on a variety of potential scenarios - from an all-out invasion like the March 2003 march on Baghdad to less demanding missions.
Another military option for Washington would be limited, clandestine action by U.S. special operations commandos, such as Delta Force soldiers, against a small number of key nuclear installations.
The man whose responsibility it would be to design any conventional military action against Iran - and execute it if ordered by Bush - is Adm. William Fallon, the Central Command chief. He is playing down prospects of conflict, saying in a late September interview that there is too much talk of war.
"This constant drumbeat of conflict is what strikes me, which is not helpful and not useful," Fallon told Al-Jazeera television, adding that he does not expect a war against Iran. During a recent tour of the Gulf region, Fallon made a point of telling U.S. allies that Iran is not as strong as it portrays itself.
"Not militarily, economically or politically," he said.
Fallon's immediate predecessor, retired Army Gen. John Abizaid, raised eyebrows in September when he suggested that initiating a war against Iran would be a mistake. He urged vigorous efforts to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but failing that, he said, "There are ways to live with a nuclear Iran." He also said he believed Iran's leaders could be dissuaded from using nuclear arms, once acquired.
The possibility of U.S. military action raises many tough questions, beginning perhaps with the practical issue of whether the United States knows enough about Iran's network of nuclear sites - declared sites as well as possible clandestine ones - to sufficiently set back or destroy their program.
Among other unknowns: Iran's capacity to retaliate by unleashing terrorist strikes against U.S. targets.
Nonmilitary specialists who have studied Iran's nuclear program are doubtful of U.S. military action.
"There is a nontrivial chance that there will be an attack, but it's not likely," said Jeffrey Lewis, director of a nuclear strategy project at the New America Foundation, a nonpartisan public policy group.
We may be taxed by events in Iraq, but, if needed we would step up to the plate.
A diplomatic strike! Yeah, that's the ticket!
A blockade is a peaceful solution.
Carpet bomb them with U.N. resolutions and they will change their attitude in a hurry!
IAF will take care of this. We just need to shut up and stay out of their way. Maybe be can offer some red cross aid.
We have a military unsurpassed in the history of the world. Forgetting our land and sea based assets for the moment, we have enough destructive firepower on the 20-24 nuke submarines to destroy any number of bad guys countries. Each sub carries 24 missiles and each missile carries 10 warheads. Do the math, 24 boats x 24 missiles per boat x 10 warheads per missile = 5760 nuke warheads, each with more destructive power then the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Now keep in mind this is NOT including our Navy or land based assets.
This is the reason I personally believe no Nation will EVER attack us with nukes. If they do their destruction will be both swift and total.
Of course the nutbag ragheads are a different story but I believe if the terror supporting nations are put on notice that if we are nuked by one of the independent animal groups that They (M.E. nations) will be held responsible and will pay a terrible price. Of course we will have ample evidence on hand before we annihilate anyone, this also will not be a problem.
The US has ample air and naval power to strike anywhere.
It would also have the power to quickly win wars and restore the peace if it weren't for the propaganda war waged by leftist politicians and media!
The fact that France is falling in line HELPS in achieving a dimplomatic solution!
The irony is that because you had the West fractured and Germany and France against the raq intervention is what caused the Ba’ath reguime to assume we would take no action. It emboldened them.
As Western nations turn up the heat and stand united, an Iran is probably even going to back down. The economic consequences of a North America and Europe isolating Iran would be devistating. The problem is getting everyone to speak with one voice.
BUMP
This would be the weekly ‘we’re ready and the plan is in place’ thread. It’s good somebody is keeping the plan updated. Hillary! will be needing it.
JUST DO IT ALREADY....”The bombing/air-strike/manned&unmanned starts in five minutes.”
_____________________
I am worried about this recent agreeing behavior of the French. It would be nice to be able to trust it, but I don't just yet. So much of a complete turn-around is a bit unsettling. I think anything they are doing now to act like an ally might just be a front for what they really want: to advance their desires to get the US to approve and join the EU in exchange for any help we might get from them. Just my thoughts now.
Bttt
Before we drop the big one on Iran, it would be a wise move to get that joker Fallon out of Centcom, because not only is he on record, stating that he thinks that Iran could be a ‘stabilizing’ influence in the Middle East (try and imagine George S. Patton saying that about the Soviets and Eastern Europe?), Fallon was more than happy to play footsie and talk about ‘cooperation’ with the ChiComs when he was in charge of the Pacific Fleet.
He’s the kind of Admiral that Jimmy Carter would absolutely love, the kind that will look for ANY reason not to take out our enemies like the threats they are. If Fallon wants to be a diplomat (and his statements suggest that), he should resign, retire and go sign up with Condi Rice and her merry little band of appeasers over at State.
We should not give iran so much as a band aid... let the rooskies and chicoms feed and clothe them.
LLS
What you are seeing in France is the difference between gore and President Bush.
LLS
I can’t give the exact timing of an attack on Iran but, I can give an indication as to when it might happen.
When we see a great exodus of American troops leaving Iraq, know the attack on Iran will be soon.
For some reason?/ for which I can’t understand, it’s as if Iran wants America to attack them.
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