Posted on 10/27/2007 7:12:41 PM PDT by nwctwx
16L.NONAME
WHXX01 KWBC 280036 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0036 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162007) 20071028 0000 UTC
As much as I hate to see the destruction and upsets to people’s lives due to a hurricane I hope this hits just west of Mobile cause ALL of Alabama desperately needs rain! I’m in northern Alabama and we have been in a drought situation here for several years now.
We picked up 4” from this last three day rain event here on I-95 in NC. That only makes us 16” down for the year.
More of a trough, I think. It's more or less here already, it's supposed to linger until then.
Hi, LCS.
| Tropical Storm Public Advisory |
...Depression on the verge of becoming a tropical storm... ...Significant rainfall and flooding potential for portions of the Caribbean...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch is also in effect for Jamaica. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 72.5 west or about 220 miles...355 km...southwest of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 145 miles...235 km...south of Port au Prince Haiti.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. Even though the center of the depression could pass south of Hispaniola...heavy rains to the north and east of the center will pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Above normal tides are likely within the warning area.
The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over Hispaniola...southeastern Cuba...and Jamaica...with possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...16.5 N...72.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$ Forecaster Knabb
Doesn’t look like anyone will get any rain except Cuba.
It’s a pretty large system. Still holding out hope for rain here, although we are out of the cone for now in Tampa Bay.
It rained for about 36 hours straight down here due to that system. Hope the SE US gets some of it.
It’s not an eye. It is an area of slightly warmer cloud tops surrounded by colder cloud tops, most likely formed by a collapsing thunderstorm. Wait another hour and the rest of the tops around it will warm too.
Thanks for the info.
Rain, yes. Wind, hopefully not so much.
Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the depression has strengthened to a tropical storm with maximum winds near 50 mph. A special advisory will be issued at approximately 200 PM EDT...and the special public advisory will take the place of the intermediate public advisory previously scheduled for that time. $$ Forecaster Knabb
If this is the stationary front they are talking about, this thing's been hanging over us for a week moving back and forth over Central Florida.
If they are counting on this cold front to keep moving down and push it NE they better hope it picks up speed.
They already named it Noel. Merry Christmas
000
WTNT31 KNHC 281443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007
...DEPRESSION ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...
...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
HAITI.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD PASS SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA...HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
WILL PASS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND
JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
Nice touch adding the witch.
Statement as of 2:15 PM EDT on October 28, 2007
...Noel becomes 14th named storm of the Atlantic season... A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Tropical Storm Warning is also recommended for the southwestern Dominican Republic from Barahona westward. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch is also in effect for Jamaica. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 215 PM EDT...1815z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was relocated near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 71.8 west or about 150 miles...235 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti. Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph...8 km/hr. A general northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours...taking the center of Noel near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight. Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km...mainly to the north from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft was 996 mb...29.41 inches. Above normal tides are likely within the warning area. Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over Hispaniola...southeastern Cuba...and Jamaica...with possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Repeating the 215 PM EDT position...16.5 N...71.8 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph. Minimum central pressure...996 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Knabb
I really hate spaghetti models. They bug me more than the cones.
I ate my supplies but still have water...
Time to think about 1. cash 2. prescriptions 3. pets 4. canned food 5. batteries, etc.
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