Posted on 10/26/2007 5:20:32 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
While Fred Thompson travels the nation with his message of consistent conservatism and touts his border security and immigration reform proposal, a recent national tracking poll shows that Thompson has pulled into a virtual tie with Rudolph Giuliani. This poll further shows that Giuliani has lost almost a third of his support in the last 12 days.
In a separate Field Poll conducted in California, Giuliani's "support has eroded markedly among the party faithful, setting up the prospect of a shootout in February's primary," wrote the San Francisco Chronicle, dropping 10 points since August.
Earlier this week, a Rasmussen poll showed Giuliani and Thompson both statistically tied with Hillary in a head-to-head matchup in Ohio.
The “battleground” poll is a trade name for a specific poll done by Ed Goas (GOP) and Celinda Lake (Dem). They agreed to poll together, then do separate analysis for their parties. It was very reliable, and usually battleground polls tend to get more useful information about the voters than generic Rasmussen or Field or Mason-Dixon Polls (although on the state level in the last three election cycles, MD has been dead accurate-—the most accurate, statewide, of any).
Look at the next post. Reality? Where. You can’t even read RCP correctly. Look at the average, look at the leader, look at the #2 guy. #2 guys get delegates too. Where are Fred’s delegates?
Mason Dixon is and has been for years the Gold standard of state polling.
Many of the polls used by RCP in their averages should be discounted because of their poor methodology (and when has Quinnipiac ever been anywhere close to reality?). Rasmussen has a recent history of being most accurate and uses a tight "likely primary/caucus voter" screen.
We're talking delegates here and winning states. Where do you see Fred's delegates in any of these polls?
Iowa: 2nd, possibly 1st
South Carolina: 1st
Florida: 2nd, outside chance at 1st
New Hampshire: Anywhere from 2nd to 4th
Nevada: Polling is all over the board, no one has a clue what's going on
Michigan: 2nd or 3rd
California: 2nd, picking up a lot of conservative districts
Pennsylvania: 2nd
New Jersey: Winner-take all, none for Thompson barring complete Giuliani collapse
Hannity is gonna be pretty pissed about this - get ready for a Guliani fest on his show (that is if you listen to him, which I dont).
Bringing up the supposed mob hit yet they won’t talk about him and his defrocked priest pedophile employee.
More and more GOP voters are realizing Rudy’s pro abortion, anti gun, pro gay marriage/rights, and has a personal life that mirrors Bill Clinton’s.
And its beginning to show in the polls.
You can only run so far on name recognition and 9/11. Rudy’s a fraud and once the issues are clearly framed by his opponents and his positions clearly defined he’ll be a has been by February.
With that, I bid you adieu.
You may peruse an 'average' of polls of differing methodology and sample size all you wish.
If you're looking for accuracy, Rasmussen is the place to find it. If you want to massage whatever conventional wisdom you've bought into, you can look at the RCP average all day and see whatever you want.
Rasmussen is the only pollster who polls likely caucus/primary voters. Nobody else does.
Beyond that, you are so blinded by polls that you don't seem to be aware that polls are merely a snapshot in time and not graven in stone.
Fred Thompson has not run a single ad in Iowa, Florida, or SC yet.
There is still a lot of time left in this thing. Your 'look, this is reality' crap is really silly and will only serve to make you look foolish in the long run.
Take a step back, stop being so concerned about predicting things correctly. It is clouding your judgment and makes you say silly thinks like this:
We're talking delegates here and winning states. Where do you see Fred's delegates in any of these polls?
This is anyone's race. Even Huckabee could have something to say about it before it's over and done with. If you think there won't be a dynamic change one way or another in Iowa and NH before votes are cast, you're really being naive.
True.
What is also true is that Rasmussen tends towards a pretty good record of accuracy.
Fox News Dynamics Polls are bigger joke than all of CNN.
Polls of Registered Voters, like SurveyUSA, are worthless at this point, especially when they are coupled with low quantity samples.
I beg to differ. There is a choice of writing in Micky Mouse or leaving the presidential race as an undervote.
Rooooooty pingy.
Actually, if you follow the link to the story it says: “Fred Thompson Campaign” at the bottom.
Rooty has FOX by the short-and-curlies...might explain the poll.
For some reason FNC thinks Rudy is the second coming of Christ.
Rudy is not just an "unperfect" candidate, he is an uber liberal and therefore a lousy candidate for republicans. People are finally finding this out and now he is dropping like a rock....GOOD!
Rudy cannot beat Hillary, he will be eaten alive by her and her hounds. Even if he did win, conservatives still lose and lose big and for a long time. Rudy is bad news all the way around.
Agreed, if Rudy gets the nod I for one will be doing a write-in for President.
Actually though...the recent Rass poll did show that Fred does just about as well as Rudy against the Beast in Ohio...at least as of this week.
Rudy’s support I can grudgingly understand. But why MCCAIN???
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