[Southack]

I’m underwhelmed by Al Qaeda and new wanna-be’s who talk to the news media but have no relevant battles under their belts.

To me, it reeks of displaced Sunnis (e.g. fleeing losses in Iraq and Pak Army advances near Waziristan) claiming to be new heros (arriving in Afghanistan) rather than defeated cowards (arriving in Afghanistan).

For one thing, these new groups aren’t claiming to have new funding or new weapons or new strategies...which a *real* grassroots movement would be expected to have if it showed up suddenly on a new battlefield in a foreign land to change the course of a war.

Instead, they all show up and announce that they are recruiting new cannon fodder.

...doesn’t pass the smell test.

My money says that they are defeated ragtag elements retreating to sparsely populated Islamic areas in hopes of mere survival rather than grandiose Offensives against the world’s only super-power.

[Recon Dad]

I follow this very closely and knowing what is happening in Helmand is the AQ and the rest are getting their asses kicked. We seem to be getting better and better intel which results in more and more dead for the bad guys.

[agere_contra]

Excellent analysis.