Don't know about peak oil or peak hemp, but I've been hearing about peak antifreeze for decades now.
Posted on 10/16/2007 6:11:57 PM PDT by SJackson
“Peak oil” is becoming the latest doomsday buzzword. What is it? It’s a well-thought-out theory that predicts that the rate at which we find and recover oil is soon going to fall behind the rate at which we consume it. The point at which that happens is the “peak.” Prior to this peak, prices will have been relatively stable and reasonable, and the economies of the world have grown because the supply of energy outpaced the demand. But there is coming a time, and some say it’s here now, when the world’s oil fields cannot produce as fast as we consume. Demand will exceed supply, oil prices are going to skyrocket, and the world’s economies are going to begin to fail as the oil fields themselves fail.
Oil today is important to civilization. We use it to produce electric power and to make gasoline, heating oil, fertilizer, chemicals, plastics, and more. Eighty-four percent goes to power and fuel, and only 16% to other things. What happens if we run out? Tidy little doomsday scenarios have been woven and show how transportation will stop running, food production will drop because of less fertilizer and pesticides, currency markets will fail, prices of everything will take off, and this will mean both the end of civilization as we know it and an irreversible decline in the human condition. It’s all very neat, but that doesn’t mean it’s accurate.
(Excerpt) Read more at backwoodshome.com ...
I think the Libs should just start killing themselves
As usual, the only hope for the future of mankind is to adopt some list of radical, leftist policies.
Good point, RightWhale, it’s what I was saying earlier. Many of our “resources” are not easily exploitable. It’s all about building refineries and how we play the market now.
The U.S. will not and cannot achieve energy independence.
Not really. One oil company just gave up some of their Alaska leases on the North Slope because they weren’t worth developing at $80 a barrel. If it is not economic to produce, it is neither a reserve nor a resource.
Exon and Shell said they could produce oil shale oil for $30 to $40 per barrel in the Rockey Mountain news. $50 a barrel on the north slope must be court costs with the wacko left.
Heard that a thousand times. It’s been fundamentally wrong every time.
Exon and Shell have some new technology to heat the oil in place and tests have led to costs of $30. It is just a stop gap until ethanol can be made from cellulose and coal gasification looks good also. Lots of new stuff is not viable with crude prices where they are at.
The cost of producing Saudi oil is still $2. Nobody will process oil for $30 plus. They can’t compete.
We will never get Saudi oil for $2 a barrel. $30 per barrel is about what oil costs out of the ground in Colorado so this is competitive. What the US does not have because of the wackos is enough refinery capacity.
Coal-to-gasoline conversion becomes economically worthwhile when oil is stable at over $35/bbl
A confounding factor these days is that to the OPEC countries, oil reserves, production, well depletion, etc., are closely guarded state secrets. And since quotas are based on reserves, these stated figures have been inflated over the years, such that the Saudis have more reserves now than they had 30 years ago.
Right, watch the escalating price, and form your own conclusion. I've made lots of money in the oil/energy sector over the last five years. Anybody who looks at the exponential curve of the performance in this area would be aware of what is happening. Others are wearing rose colored glasses.
Colorado shale oil might compete with Colorado pumped oil and with what’s left of Alaska North Slope oil, but not with most oil on the world market. So long as we can afford it we’ll pay for it if there is no cheaper alternative, but right now and for a while longer if war is averted cheaper alternatives are still available.
The US has because we have set aside many of our promising area and will not allow exploration of them. The world proved reserves still continue to grow in average every year in spite of meeting an increasing demand.
So does the Alaskan North Slope. Continued exploration and changes in technology create more recoverable reserves.
Don't know about peak oil or peak hemp, but I've been hearing about peak antifreeze for decades now.
My quick answer is lots of oil/gas purchases are not in your precious markets. China has long term contracts with Iran some at 36$ per barrel. China pays Iran with weaponry and consumer goods. China also just might defend Iran in a confrontation with the USA. This also figures into how much China “pays” for Iranian oil
China has similar deals with Venezuela plus Chavez sell his oil at a discount to his Latin allies and has deals with Cuba where he sends oil and they send doctors for the Venezuelan poor
very good-—thanks
Long term contracts are part of the market. There may be political issues that influence the contracts but the contracts are still between a willing buyer and seller. I think we agree that energy markets are manipulated primarily on the supply side.
I am not sure what energy policies you favor. I think that you would agree that we should develop our own energy supplies. Other countries outside of these cartels are also trying to develop their own supplies. I think that we should use the tools available to pressure the cartels. I am confident that the market will adjust if we do not interfere with development of our own energy supplies. Given the trend of our current energy policies, we are heading for a situation in which our energy costs will be much higher than the rest of world. This situation will lead to less investment, low job growth, and low tax revenues.
Western coal is very clean and is my favorite. Burn it for electric and convert it into diesel for automobiles and heating oil for homes and jet fuel for airplanes. All three of these are pretty much kerosene which is easier to make from coal than is gasoline
We should have a crash program to develop and promote Western coal but this is stalled by our greenies. Coal has more carbon than oil or natural gas so when you bun it your get more CO2. Global warming is bullshit but this is what prevents us from developing coal and getting way from foreign oil
I despise our trade deficit and energy imports are the fastest growing part of it, Not our China/Asian imports
You minimize these long term contracts at your own peril. This is the kind of stuff that nations go to war over when oil is at $88 like today
In other words China has long term contracts with Iran and if we attack Iran they attack Taiwan. If China can size Taiwan that adds Taiwan's GDP to China's. Taiwan has a very very excellent technological base and China will harness some of it for exotic new weaponry for the China military.
What is Taiwan's GDP?
I am not minimizing the non competitive nature of energy markets. The issue is the policies that we can make and pursue. We cannot stop Iran from agreeing to sell China oil below market prices. We can oppose Iran for its terrorist support and nuclear ambitions. Please indicate the policies that we should support given the non competitive nature of the energy market and the danger of rogue states like Iran.
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