Posted on 10/10/2007 11:47:13 AM PDT by TitansAFC
Front-runner Rudy Giuliani increasingly claims the mantle of invincibility -- issues, schmissues, he's the only guy who can beat Hillary.
Judging from my recent cocktail party conversations, it's having an impact. But these same conversations reveal how much wishful thinking goes into the myth of Rudy the Invincible.
"I can't believe the American people will vote for that woman and her husband, a philanderer," one wealthy businessman told me.
"Who are you supporting?" I innocently inquired.
"Rudy," he said.
Can you spell "cognitive dissonance"?
Sean Hannity spends hours every afternoon criticizing those in the GOP coalition (such as Dr. James Dobson) who won't vote for Rudy; sure Giuliani may be wrong on gay marriage and abortion, but he'll be much better than Hillary because he'll appoint "strict constructionist" Supreme Court justices, right?
More self-delusion. Bucking the tide by appointing judges with sufficient intellectual integrity to overturn Roe v. Wade is very hard. Ronald Reagan wanted to do it, and he got it right only once. Even President Bush put appointing his good friend Harriet Miers ahead of appointing a Sam Alito. Only when the base went ballistic did Bush back down, and only because he really is a conservative who cares about what conservatives think.
Rudy? Here's a safe bet: He will appoint a loyalist crony to the bench. When the base erupts, he'll tell the base where it can stick its objections. That's Rudy.
When he's on your side, you admire how fearlessly he will defend your views. When he's not on your side, he ruthlessly steamrolls over you. And on abortion? Don't kid yourself: Rudy is not on our side.
And the Supreme Court is not the only issue of concern to social conservatives. What will Rudy do if and when a resurgent Democrat majority tries to repeal the Hyde Amendment, which bans federal funding for abortion? Or for that matter overturns the federal definition of marriage in the Defense of Marriage Act? Will Rudy spend his political capital on vetoing either of these? He's made us no promises. Instead, he's counting on widespread self-delusion and cognitive dissonance to carry enough social conservatives to win the nomination.
My question is: What is he counting on afterward? Because, frankly, Rudy's electoral prospects don't look that good.
The once-powerful Reagan coalition had three legs -- strong on defense, less government and social conservatism. But the war in Iraq is not the same as the war on communism. It's very unpopular, and Rudy has become as identified with this unpopular war as John McCain. Meanwhile, he has abandoned social conservatism. What's left of the Reagan coalition for Rudy to run on? Naked fiscal conservatism? Conservatives are deluding themselves if they think fiscal conservatism by itself is a winning political coalition. Do they not remember the party of Gerald Ford? It was very fiscally conservative, socially moderate, and a permanent minority party.
The halo of "America's Mayor" is already slipping. For months, polls showed Rudy Giuliani leading Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup, but by June of this year that lead had begun to evaporate. The latest poll, conducted in late September by ABC News and The Washington Post, shows Hillary Clinton beating Rudy Giuliani by eight points. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney trails Clinton in a head-to-head matchup in the latest Rasmussen poll by only nine points. One point better than Romney does not a convincing argument make for abandoning all principles.
And that's before Christian conservative leaders bolt the party, which has abandoned them on abortion, to run a third-party candidate.
A little political realism, please. If you think a candidate who breaks up the Republican Party is the best man to lead the nation, vote for Rudy. But don't imagine, it's going to be easy to elect him.
It was a sea change, that everyone could see and everyone was affected by. My guess is that’s where Sean’s Rudy love comes from
I was there, and observed both the city's nadir under Dinkins, and its amazing renaissance under Giuliani. The comparison between Reagan v. Carter is fully appropriate.
It was _more_ than "night-to-day". From the chaos and disorder, came a sense that the city might actually have a civil, governable future and be a desirable enviornment in which to live.
This doesn't mean I love New York City or the folks that live there, or that I'm an unwavering partisan for Rudy. I live out of town and out of state. But having worked into and out of both Manhattan and the South Bronx since 1979, I saw the changes as did everyone else who was there at the time. They were impossible NOT to see.
Will Hillary beat Rudy? Can't say for sure, too early to see how the dynamics are going to shape up. Frankly, I think ANY candidate is going to have a difficult time beating her, all those "negatives" notwithstanding. Things aren't going well for the Republicans right now, and to deny that is to be a-whistlin' past the graveyard in the dark. We shall see.
As for myself, I will vote for the Republican nominee in November of '08.
Even if it's Ron Paul.
ANYbody but her!
That's like condemning our entire country to New York's fortunes under Dinkins....
- John
We don’t have a PERFECT candidate for our views and beliefs.....the Dems do!! Hillary is winning and more abortions will be done and MAggie and I will be PAYING for the ABORTIONS!
We don’t have a PERFECT candidate for our views and beliefs.....the Dems do!! Hillary is winning and more abortions will be done and MAggie and I will be PAYING for the ABORTIONS!
My parents were part of the conservative movement that challenged the tired country clubbers in support of Ronald Reagan. I was a teen at the time and wore a “Write in Reagan” t-shirt to high school until the ‘76 election.
He was the first president I ever voted for (’80). I am now the age my parents were then and the job has to be done all over again.
I’m supporting Duncan Hunter and will write in his name in the general if Rudy is nominated.
And every time the GOP calls me for money, I give them a piece of my mind instead.
Agree with ya !
No lesser of 2 evils votes in our family.....What one has done, their history and their past factual record is what we deal with. Not false promises, no chicken in every pot bribes etc . Rudy isn’t on our list of potential voters now or tomorrow.
I am watching , listening , learning about Hunter . Thus far he’s my first choice.
Nothing set in stone yet. Except that we will never vote for Rudy. Even if he is the lesser of two evils. Never again will we vote in such a manner.......
There’s a difference between someone slightly imperfect vs someone totally liberal. If Rudy is the new face of the GOP, we might as well stop being conservative now.
People act like I’m trying to sabeutage the GOP. Hannity even said the other night a vote for anyone else is giving half a vote to Hilary. Guess we’re really not a “big tent” anymore.
Never, ever believe the lying-sack-of-sh*t Hillary.
- You learn all you need to know about this “journalist” who penned the article in the first paragraph when she admits: “Judging from my recent cocktail party conversations...”.
I don’t accept the opinions of anyone who picks up her views on today’s candidates at cocktail parties. That’s the forum where trendy journalists and left wing elitists go to reinforce each other’s views that they know better what’s good for them than the huddled masses and they can sooth each other in their shared self loathing.
They won’t be content until they’ve elected someone who spouts nonsense about “mutual dialog” and “negotiations” with avowed terrorists who have already announced their intentions to commit mass murder of anyone who opposes them and to hack off the heads of those who don’t accept the imposition of Sharia Law.
We need a strong leader like Rudy who doesn’t pander to these crawlers and draws a line in the sand - unlike Hitlery whose line changes on a daily basis, depending on what the polls say.
It was the Rino RNC that insisted on running moderate Gerry Ford in ‘76 that gave us Jimmy Carter and the Rino RNC that insisted on Bob Dole in ‘88 that gave us Clinton.
Now the Rinos insist that Rudy is the one and they will give us the Hildebeast.
For them it’s all about maintain their position in the corridors of power. They have no principles except power.
er, um ‘92, forgot about “read my lips” Bush Sr.
This really is a mess and it hasn’t even begun yet. Especially if Dobson and group run a third party candidate.
Hillary beats Rudy because Rudy’s nomination will destroy the Republican Party. Period. It will result in the creation of a socially and religious conservative third party which will siphon off more than enough votes to sink Giuliani, but not enough votes to elect whomever they choose to run as their candidate (cough...Alan Keyes...cough, cough).
How does supporting a liberal of either party do anything but advance liberalism? A liberal Republican, elected with your vote, is much more likely to get leftist legislation passed because conservatives signed off on it.
OH So True. The real issue is that this is the way it will be for many elections in the future UNLESS we do say NO to ANY liberal or RINO. This election is fixed because the shadow government gets their candidates & they are always to the liberal side. I really feel these elections at the national level are a waist of time - the least evil is our choice.
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