Posted on 10/05/2007 9:18:17 PM PDT by Doofer
At least Romney is investing in himself. Unlike Soros who has an even bigger fortune that he’s investing in all manner of left wing organizations that seem to have one objective: to smear Republicans. Does AP write about that ?
Not true--if he wins in two or three states and expects that to carry him to the nomination, why is he consistently behind in the polls?
The man is running a very crisp campaign. He’s a brilliant guy.
"Crisp"? How does one spend all those millions and stay stuck in 3rd or 4th place and be considered brilliant?
Exactly--he will have demolished the candidates who could win against Hillary and will be very pleased with himself for buying a nomination, but for the general election he will have demoralized just enough of those he needs to win.
Romney made his money the old fashioned way, he earned it.
If he has the money to spend on his own campaign to supplement that of donors, then that makes him a more competitive general election candidate. Especially, as he hasn't exactly been a slouch at getting money from donors as well.
“If he has the money to spend on his own campaign to supplement that of donors, then that makes him a more competitive general election candidate. Especially, as he hasn’t exactly been a slouch at getting money from donors as well.”
That is sterile thinking, if Mitt succeeded in slicking his way through, he would not find a large number of votes on the other side, that is what is being learned in this primary.
Conservative apathy means not only losing the White House, but low turnout would hurt all the way down the ticket.
The primary is to weed out the chafe until we get a vote getting winner, that can turn out the party for the entire ticket during the election.
A man that has to buy a primary, doesn’t have the hard earned, passionate support to motivate the party voters to turn out in eager droves in the election.
A man that cannot get his own party excited will not defeat the darling of the left, our first women President.
This is why I am giving money to both F. Thompson, and Guiliani (Shudder)..
It may be the ONLY way to block him!
“....with $45 million raised from about 100,000 donors this year
Very impressive.”
Somehow Obama has had 350K donors. Hillary had 100K this quarter.
I can’t imagine who all these people are.
OR Fred Thompson relies on a lot of volunteer grass-roots supporters, that which he actually has, Mitt seems to lack except in IOWA an NH...
Ansell’s chart is very compelling and what you say about Romney’s lack of national traction is true, so far. But things could change fast if Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire. I wouldn’t write Romney off just because his national poll numbers so far don’t look all that great.
I think the race is going to come down to Romney vs. Thompson, and though I do believe Thompson will win, still, it could end up being a tight race.
As for the G-man, I think he’s going to fade. The others aren’t even contenders.
Sure, nothing is written in stone (remeber when Howard Dean’s nomination was a done deal?). But I see no evidence of Giuliani fading—only of conservatives WISHING he would.
Giuliani’s poll numbers have sagged since the start of this race... they’re certainly not growing. I don’t know if that’s evidence of anything.
Anyway, I’m not citing evidence. I’m just making a personal prediction that Giuliani will fade fast, after South Carolina.
I predict that sometime in the first two months of ‘08, the race is going to come down to Romney vs. Thompson. I could be wrong. That’s just my prediction.
I just don’t see Giuliani having anywhere to go but down. He has zero support among conservatives and no chance of getting any.
Romney’s support from that group is also very low, but I believe he does have a chance of winning enough conservatives to his side to be competitive against Thompson.
Giuliani has no chance of that.
Folks, think,
The base does not win. The middle wins. And far more broadly in the array of truth . . . money wins. If you look back at the 2004 election you will see that the “base” did not carry Dean to the nomination. Kerry would not have been the nominee had he not provided money to his own campaign from mortgaging his house. Dean’s money advantage would have crushed him had he not had a huge influx of discretionary money, run the necessary ads in Iowa, and won there.
Dean then lost in New Hampshire and his money dried up and it is popular to talk and think about The Scream, but that scream occurred because he lost in Iowa, and he lost because Kerry had money and persuaded non political, non extreme, non base Democrats he was the man who could beat Bush.
The other concept to keep in mind is that it is very likely in a 3 man race that the GOP nomination can be won by a candidate who does not outright win a single state. The nomination is won by securing delegates. A consistent 2nd place finish can gather more delegates than the other two candidates who might bounce between 1st and 3rd.
And, of course, if you finish 1st in New Hampshire, Iowa AND MICHIGAN, your momentum is pretty powerful even if you do finish 2nd in all the southern states. New York and California primaries occur pretty early next year and they are not southern states.
“There is no mistake about victory. If the strategy wins, it wins. If it gathers the non political junkies via TV, then he is victorious.The man is running a very crisp campaign. He’s a brilliant guy.”
He may be brilliant. But that does not mean he will win. After what I heard Rush report yesterday about the socialist type health care in Mass, Romney sure does not sound so good! Wish I could link to the article, but would have to listen to yesterday’s program again to catch the title of the article Rush read. Maybe someone else has the link or remembers where the article came from.
I do not know what you heard or saw, and I don’t know what the norm is in Massachussetts, but I will say this.
The “norm” on FR is very likely to be health care group insurance plans through their employer.
THAT is not “the norm” nationally anymore and incrementally it will become less so the norm on FR.
Only when you move into the world of individual health care insurance plans can you understand this issue. That means self employed. That means small business with no group plan.
The premiums for individual plans for a family are headed for $10,000/yr. That does not include deductible and co pays. And it is growing at double digit % growth rates.
Iraq victory is going to be the primary issue next year, but we Republicans had better get VERY ATTUNED to a specific reality and that is . . . if the war is “over” with troops coming home to victory parades . . . then ONE WEEK later the primary issue of the campaign will become health care costs.
The President’s State of the Union plan of tax credits/deductions is a conservative approach to addressing these costs. The $10,000 in question (assuming you can even get insurance (pre existing conditions often preclude it)) is, after all, after tax dollars.
The problem conservatism has is that there is GREAT DANGER in health insurance being perceived as a Democrat issue. If it is, we will lose the election, because it will be a more dominant concern of the moderate voter next year than illegal immigration.
Overall, I think the Romney campaign can feel okay about the way this quarter's fundraising numbers shook out. Granted, everyone in the GOP is concerned that their candidates are getting lapped by the Democratic field. But, among Republicans, Romney was probably close enough to Giuliani to call it a wash (nearly $10 million to around $11 million)....
Had Romney not gotten so close to Rudy in contributions from people not named Mitt Romney, I think the Giuliani people could have begun to argue that their opponent's campaign was only being sustained by his own bank account. But, as it stands, Romney can argue that he's doing everything Giuliani is, fundraising-wise, plus going the additional step of making an "investment" of his own.
Romney's Adequate Fundraising Haul
Excellent review of things.
There is no such thing as "the middle." It is a fabricated term pushed by the Dems and media to force the GOP move to the Left.
Really? I seem to recall declarations by Republicans after the 2004 . . . “we are the middle. Join us there.”
Hard to join folks somewhere that doesn’t exist.
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