Posted on 10/05/2007 9:18:17 PM PDT by Doofer
Mitt Romney once said financing his own campaign would be a "nightmare." Writing checks, he said this week, is "painful." It doesn't seem to be stopping him. Romney is his presidential campaign's most generous supporter, lending $17.5 million from his personal fortune so far. His Republican rivals are bracing themselves for him to do it again. And again.
Romney is hardly the first presidential candidate to cut himself a check — Steve Forbes and Ross Perot spent far more than he has. But the businessman-turned-politician, who can raise money AND open his wallet, may have the best chance to win the presidency.
The former Massachusetts governor has two more shots at testing what his money can do to supplement his campaign's finances and help him win the GOP nomination. The first is during the 90 days left before the early presidential contests of Iowa and New Hampshire. If he survives those, he can spend again in the last weeks of January before the make-or-break primaries in Florida, New York, California, New Jersey.
"The Romney strategy is very clear — win Iowa, get a bounce to New Hampshire, win New Hampshire and write yourself a check for the Feb. 5 states and start advertising," said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns but is unaffiliated this election.
If Romney writes himself a sizable check in January, his spending might be evident, but the size of his contribution would not be a public record until mid-February, well after the nomination is likely to be sewn up. That could protect Romney from voters who would object to a candidate "buying" the nomination.
But Jennifer A. Steen, a political scientist at Boston College who has written extensively on self-financed candidates, believes the public doesn't care if a wealthy candidate writes his campaign checks.
"What I've noticed is that it has been terribly frustrating for opponents of self-financers that their own outrage at self-financing is not shared by the voters," Steen said
Compared to candidates like Forbes and Perot, Romney is a piker. Perot pumped $63 million into his failed 1992 presidential contest. Forbes contributed about $38 million in each of his unsuccessful White House bids, in 1996 and 2000.
Unlike those millionaires, Romney entered the presidential race with a political pedigree.
He had run for the Senate against Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., and had been elected governor of Massachusetts in 2002.
Overall, Romney has receipts of about $62 million, with $45 million raised from about 100,000 donors this year. That means he has dipped into his pocket for 28 percent of his total. In his 2002 gubernatorial campaign he had $9.4 million in receipts, of which $6.3 million came from him.
This year, Romney's personal contributions have been increasing as his fundraising has been declining. In the first quarter, he lent his campaign $2 million. In the next three months, he put in $6.85 million. This summer, he contributed $8.5 million. Meanwhile, his donations dropped from $21 million in the first three months to $10 million this past quarter.
Advisers say he is prepared to give to his campaign as long as it seems reasonable he can win.
Romney faces no great personal risk in supporting his candidacy. His assets are estimated at between $190 million and $250 million — or, as he has described it, "a bloomin' fortune."
Last week, while campaigning in California, Romney said supporting his own candidacy keeps him free of special interest influences.
"My family, that's the only one I'm really beholden to," he said wryly. "They're the ones who let their inheritance slip away, dollar by dollar."
In an interview with The Associated Press last month, he said he had placed a limit on how much he would be willing to spend, but he wouldn't disclose it. "My wife isn't telling!" he joked.
After nine months of campaigning, Romney's campaign reported this week that he had $9 million cash on hand. That's less than his rival Rudy Giuliani, who has $12 million in the bank for the primary contests. But it is more than other GOP contenders.
Strategists and advisers for various campaigns say they are watching Romney's money closely and trying to divine if and when he plans to spend more.
"All of his money reaches a point of diminishing returns at some point if everyone has enough money to run a good campaign in the last two or three weeks" before the January contests," said Charlie Black, an adviser to Republican John McCain. "His money advantage happened early in the year and now. He can be out there advertising in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina before other people could afford to."
Indeed, Romney has spent nearly $10 million in radio and television advertising since early in the year, building up his name recognition both nationally and in those early states. In national polls, he still lags behind other leading Republicans. But he went from being an unknown to leading the polls in Iowa. In New Hampshire, where he is far more familiar as the governor of a neighboring state, he is in a close contest with Giuliani.
"Romney has had to spend and do more to get to where he is now," said GOP strategist Greg Mueller, who advised Forbes' 2000 campaign. "One of the challenges for Romney is how do they keep it fresh. Money can help you do that."
As the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary draw nearer, television markets in the two states will become saturated. Candidates will be competing against Christmas ads, and advertising time will get booked up.
"It's not easy to get access to the airwaves, even if you seem to have the ability to drop a significant chunk of resources at one time," said Eric Ueland, a former top aide to Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist and now a supporter of Fred Thompson's presidential campaign.
Ueland, stressing that he was not speaking for Thompson's campaign, said candidates facing a self-financed opponent like Romney need to be prepared to respond.
"If you know that a hurricane could bear down on you, then you make sure your structure is as strong as possible," he said.
Let’s all just be thankful that its him and not Ron Paul who has a personal fortune.
I don't care if he writes his own checks or not but if you have grass roots support it's not a requirement as it seems to be in Romney's case.
I don’t believe that conservatism is for sale to the highest liberal bidder.
Liberalism is.
Very impressive.
I don't know. Thompson's had something like 80,000 seperate donors in quite a bit less than a year.
If I were a gazillionaire I’d probably run myself. I come closer to my own political philosophy than anyone else I know. Very rarely do I get in political arguments with myself and even rarer do they become physically violent.
Shut up Graybeard you dumb ass.
I don’t have to take that crap from you.
I’ll take my meds now.
The Thompson aide made a good point about ad times getting sold and filled up, so even if you have a fortune to drop then, there are no ad slots left to buy.
That is a very powerful reality, but I think it is read wrong in terms of what it means. Romney can schedule his expenditures with 100% flexibility. His opponents cannot. They are constrained by the rate at which money comes in from fund raising.
What this means is . . . pretty clear. Romney can buy up the choice ad slots before the others can place their orders because they won’t have the cash on hand to fund both their staff plus the ad buy. This is the hurricane they have to find an answer for.
They are forewarned. Possibly the only answer is for staff to eschew salary to enable ad buys. That is asking them to take a huge risk. If their guy doesn’t win/survive, they won’t ever get paid.
Romney can buy up all the ads to win a couple of primaries, but he can't get any traction nationally.
You can pour cash into a few key states early on, but people aren't going to go to the polls if you seem like the inevitable winner and they don't care for you.
Romney has mistaken rape for seduction, a mugging for persuasion.
If we stay together and vote, we win 55 to 45.
There is no mistake about victory. If the strategy wins, it wins. If it gathers the non political junkies via TV, then he is victorious.
The man is running a very crisp campaign. He’s a brilliant guy.
Yep. But, I ain’t unifying around any RINO.
Please explain. (just a little.....)
Yeah, he's racking up the endorsements, ain't he.
"A republic, if you can keep it."
“There is no mistake about victory. If the strategy wins, it wins. If it gathers the non political junkies via TV, then he is victorious.
The man is running a very crisp campaign. He’s a brilliant guy.”
============================================================For a conservative, you don’t sound very concerned that through wealth and primary system finesse, a man with very little deep, popular support could squeeze out a win in the primary.
By queering the process we get a weak candidate, a demoralized conservative base, no particular passionate, widespread support, against a candidate that will have everything she needs to roll over an apathetic Republican electorate.
Romney’s numbers and fund raising at this point, suck after all this time, because as a candidate he does not bring in voters or donations, except for small numbers of large donors.
If he threads the needle between Fred and Rudy, he will not bring passion to the aftermath, and conservatives will stay home in mass.
I believe In LIFE, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness. I hope they address that completely. :^)
There is a reason as to why Romney has failed to get a solid fundraising core (aside from himself). It’s because the vast majoirty of people are weary of giving money to people who’s positions on the issues could take a radical change within 15 minutes of their donation.
Simply, Romney is a liberal. His record would indicate that he is even more so liberal than Giuliani. The same Giuliani who cast a vote for George McGovern in 1972. That is sad, and that is why the conservative base of the GOP has not gotten behind Romney. The real question at this point if you’re Mitt is; “How much more of my personal wealth do I plan to waste?”
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