Giuliani’s poll numbers have sagged since the start of this race... they’re certainly not growing. I don’t know if that’s evidence of anything.
Anyway, I’m not citing evidence. I’m just making a personal prediction that Giuliani will fade fast, after South Carolina.
I predict that sometime in the first two months of ‘08, the race is going to come down to Romney vs. Thompson. I could be wrong. That’s just my prediction.
I just don’t see Giuliani having anywhere to go but down. He has zero support among conservatives and no chance of getting any.
Romney’s support from that group is also very low, but I believe he does have a chance of winning enough conservatives to his side to be competitive against Thompson.
Giuliani has no chance of that.
Folks, think,
The base does not win. The middle wins. And far more broadly in the array of truth . . . money wins. If you look back at the 2004 election you will see that the “base” did not carry Dean to the nomination. Kerry would not have been the nominee had he not provided money to his own campaign from mortgaging his house. Dean’s money advantage would have crushed him had he not had a huge influx of discretionary money, run the necessary ads in Iowa, and won there.
Dean then lost in New Hampshire and his money dried up and it is popular to talk and think about The Scream, but that scream occurred because he lost in Iowa, and he lost because Kerry had money and persuaded non political, non extreme, non base Democrats he was the man who could beat Bush.
The other concept to keep in mind is that it is very likely in a 3 man race that the GOP nomination can be won by a candidate who does not outright win a single state. The nomination is won by securing delegates. A consistent 2nd place finish can gather more delegates than the other two candidates who might bounce between 1st and 3rd.
And, of course, if you finish 1st in New Hampshire, Iowa AND MICHIGAN, your momentum is pretty powerful even if you do finish 2nd in all the southern states. New York and California primaries occur pretty early next year and they are not southern states.