"The forecast calls for pain"
Posted on 09/28/2007 8:09:39 PM PDT by Doofer
Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney's campaign strategists are attempting to assure supporters his candidacy is on solid ground despite placing third or fourth in most national polls.
At the same time, the Romney camp is trying to lower expectations about his ability to win both of two key January contests, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, saying it is doubtful he would be able to carry both.
Most national polls have Romney running in third or fourth place behind Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain with less than 10 percent support in the race for the Republican nomination ahead of the November 2008 election.
But he has a sizable lead in Iowa, has spent considerable sums in advertising there and has made many trips to the state. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll had him at 28 percent to 16 percent for Giuliani in Iowa.
In New Hampshire, the former Massachusetts governor had built a lead there but the latest CNN/WMUR poll gave him just a one percentage point advantage over Giuliani, 25 percent to 24 percent, with Arizona Sen. John McCain drawing 18 percent.
Romney strategist Alex Gage wrote in a Thursday memo that it is likely Romney will hover around 10 percent in national polls and gradually gain ground toward the end of the year.
"But we should not expect him to be competitive in national polls with better-known candidates like Giuliani, Thompson or McCain until after Iowa and New Hampshire," he wrote.
Romney has pursued an "early state strategy," focusing on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and hoping to do well in those states to build momentum for February 5, when some 20 states are to hold their primaries, including California and New York.
But Gage cautioned: "By no means do we expect to win both Iowa and New Hampshire -- no Republican in the modern era ever has."
A Republican strategist not attached to a presidential campaign said the Romney campaign was trying to lower expectations about Iowa and New Hampshire.
"Politics is about setting expectations, and this is Romney's attempt to lower the bar in these two states where he's done exceptionally well since the spring," the strategist said.
Gage used as an example the case of Sen. John Kerry, the Democrat who was at about 9 percent in the polls at this point ahead of the 2004 campaign leapt to 49 percent in the weeks after winning the Iowa caucuses. He won the Democratic nomination but lost to President George W. Bush.
Romney has been running as a Washington outsider, criticizing his own Republicans for failing to stop government spending and providing better security for U.S. borders from illegal immigration.
"The forecast calls for pain"
I've got news for Mr. Cage, if Romney doesn't win in both Iowa and New Hampshire he's toast.
This is a fake (underestimation) to try to divert attention from his race-He’s still as dangerous, IMO!
NO, Romney has been running as a Massachusetts LIBERAL
Ping to an informational article.
I will say he has great posture and is always very clean shaven.
“I will say he has great posture and is always very clean shaven.”
AND has great hair!
I know a lot of pretty rich businessmen worth more than $20 mil. They often have great resumes and business accomplishments but would make terrible presidents, though they’d be the last to admit it.
Its my attempt to say something nice about the guy.
“I will say he has great posture and is always very clean shaven.”
Three ruffians run an innocent, naive couple off the road, they beat the young man badly and then they scratch a circle into the dirt road and tell the boy he had better not leave that circle, they then drag his girlfriend into the bushes and ravish her.
When they finished, the young man is still inside the circle but giggling.
The ruffians ask what the heck is going on, we wrecked your car, beat the daylights out of you and we raped your girlfriend, and now here you stand in this circle giggling.
The young man replied, yah, but while you were gone I got outside of the circle three times.
Doofer wrote: “If Romney doesn’t win in both Iowa and New Hampshire he’s toast.”
Indeed. His entire campaign is being run on the strategy of winning big in both IA and NH to propel him into the other states’ races in good shape.
Now his people are trying to lower expectations for both states? This is very bad news for Romney’s supporters.
And it proves that all of the money in the world doesn’t necessarily guarantee victory.
This is quickly boiling down to a Fred v. Rudy contest.
Time for Oven Mitt to loan himself some more money!
About WHAT?
The Gong Show tryouts...
Just say no to Massachuttes.....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.