Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[Always Independent]

Sounds just like 81 when the IDF wiped the skies clean of syrian aircraft. Putie will blame the operator. Watch the next time russians will be manning the missile sites.

[processing please hold]

Oh, to be a fly on the wall of the war room, though.....

[Mariner]

"Great Game" messaging at it's finest.

1. Syria, you're alone and without alies despite promises made.

2. Syria and Iran, neither of you knows who did this or how. But whoever did it can do it again, at will.

3. Russian hardware and software is no match for western equipment and tactics.

4. Iran, it's time to pull out of Iraq and end your nuclear program...or else.

And to top it off, nary a word was spoken. It's a throwback to gunboat diplomacy...and it was done VERY WELL. Say waht you want about this president...but he has THIS stuff figured out.

[NRA2BFree]

This must be a terrible embarrassment to Russia/Putin. It has to anger them toward Israel and the US. I hope Presidente Bush can take his eyes off of amnesty long enough to see what's happening with his good buddy, Putin. I'm sure this will be a huge factor in Russia attacking Israel in the Battle of Armageddon.

[Convert from ECUSA]

Syrian and Iranian heathens: “Achmed, we have the latest gadgets from our neo-bolshie comrads. We will soon be ready to wipe out the eeeeevil little satan and great satan, may allah be forever fubared.”

A few minutes later: “Achmed, our screens just went blank, all the gadgets have gone haywire, then silent. What is wrong? Quick, push the reset button! Huh, you did push the resent button?!?! Try rebooting! Huh, you did try rebooting?!?! WTF?!??!”

One minute later, the following appears on their screens: “We’re sorry, the number you have dialed has been disconnected. Tough noogies, bubbe. This ain’t allah (may be be always fubared) speaking, and it ain’t the Avon Lady, either. Kindest regards, the IAF on behalf of Adonai Elohim.”

[Massive rush in Syria and Iran to change drawers]

[HawaiianGecko]

 Well, take all of this with a grain of salt or three.  This guy writes things like:

"Why hasn't Osama bin Laden's terror network executed an attack on U.S. soil since 9-11?  Simple, says Dr. Jack Wheeler, creator of an acclaimed intelligence website dubbed "the oasis for rational conservatives": The U.S. has threatened to nuke the Muslim holy city of Mecca should the terror leader strike America again."

"The whispers and hints and ellipses are getting louder now because the rumor explains the inexplicable: Why hasn't there been a repeat of 9-11?"Of course this was all written in January of 2005.  My question is:what whispers, what hints, what rumors?

This Dr. Wheeler guy also states that Egypt become friendly with Israel because Israel threatened to blow up the Aswan dam.  Huh?  Why is this unknown guy suddenly the strategic fountain of knowledge in the middle east?

[txhurl]

Putin’s going to Teheran Oct. 16 (must...move...bug)

[Wil H]

Awesome! Best news I’ve heard all day. Only Democrats are saddened by this news.

"Syrian radar useless - Women and minorities hardest hit"

[Southack]

"But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack."

Wheeler's a great guy, but the above is nonsense. You don't show your secret capabilities merely to demonstrate them.

On the contrary, the Israelis needed to use their capabilities.

Also, it should be remembered that Syrian defenses *did* light up. They just didn't hit anything.

[mewzilla]

Time to send in more spy squirrels...

Heh heh heh....

[Teacher317]

Very informative read.

[princess leah]

Well said - the world is spinning out of control and no one seems to care - America is so self-centered we’ve got a worthless, witch on the brink of being nominated for the democratic party for President in 2008. Republicans argue over any of their candidates, all of whom would be preferable over the beast and our military is out there working and dieing yet get so little respect!

[NRA2BFree]

Putin’s going to Teheran Oct. 16 (must...move...bug)

Yeah, ole Putty is no friend to the US. When President Bush "looked into Putty's soul" he was very deceived. Putty's an enemy to the US and always has been. He would love to take our place as world leader. He won't have to wait much longer. The way things are going in the US, we're going to implode before long.

[ozzymandus]

The Syrians didn’t get ripped off. They bought the best the Russians had, at great expense, just like the Iranians. The problem is that the Russian’s best isn’t very good. Russia has always gone for quantity over quality (even the vaunted T-34 tank of WW2 was crudely made with a short service life, but that didn’t matter).

[juliej]

Russia- run by the head of the KGB and people are surprised that he is a dictator? Putin and Assad are soul brothers.

[LilyBean]

No respect. And that pisses me off. They are demonized in the press, while Imanutcase is some kind of bloody Icon. What the hell is going on?

We have American soldiers being killed by weapons we know are supplied by Iran, but Irans leader is welcome in our country. Hell he is welcome to speak at our University. I don’t understand how this man can come to American soil and basically threaten our way of life, and it is ok. Even welcomed by some. ??????

[r9etb]

Other than that, I see nothing from him in the media since before the incursion. I’m wondering it Syria is quiet because they are frantically trying to dig him and a bunch of top Baathists out of some ruins at a target site.

That would make Asma Assad a single woman....

[Earthdweller]

You’re diabolical.

[r9etb]

Sure explains why they sent I’m-a-nut-job over here on a “charm offensive”. Too bad it failed, miserably. Unfortunately it failed because of the question about gays, not because of the Mullahs rabid anti Americanism.

Well, yeah ... and the American left really turned against Hitler only after the Nazis invaded Russia. What was important, was that they did.

Whatever it takes, MNJ. His answer about homosexuality in Iran is symptomatic of his entire nutjob worldview. If that's what it takes to turn the left, so be it. I don't particularly care what it is that turns the left against him, so long as they do.

[Earthdweller]

You’re diabolicalest.