Decisions, decisions …(Wrong Way Flanagan Figures Out Weather Forecasting Might Not Be Accurate)

Russia’s Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) is now assisting the expedition by providing and interpreting satellite images of the ice which is currently blocking my route north. Several days ago I was informed that southerly winds were expected between 3rd and 8th September and that these winds could conceivably clear the ice northeast and thus create a window of opportunity. However, instead we have a cyclone to the north of my position generating storm force northerly winds. We all know that weather forecasting is an inexact science at best. In the north Polar region there are numerous additional complicating factors which make forecasting more of a hit and miss exercise. AARI have informed us that stable southerly and south westerly winds are predicted between 9th and 15th September. Again, if these winds prevail, there is a good chance that the Tyrmyr ice massif will shift to the northeast a sufficient distance to give me the prospect of an inshore route towards the Vilkitskiy Strait. The problems however have been recently confounded by information from West Marine Operations HQ. None of the Russian icebreakers are equipped with cranes of sufficient tolerance to lift Barrabas. There is however a commercial cargo vessel due to arrive in Tiksi on 11th September. She will load timber and depart for Murmansk on 15th September. I could hitch a ride with this ship and logistics and costs are being worked out. Tiksi is about 350 miles east of my position which means that if I choose this option, I would have to leave my anchorage here at Ostrov Preobrazheniya on 8th September, three days from now. If on the other hand, I wait here to see whether the southern winds materialize I will miss that ride. If the winds come, I will have a chance. If they don’t I will be stuck on the wrong side of the strait with new ice beginning to grow and no way through. If the winds come and I make a run for it, there is the attendant risk that a wind reversal will bring the Tyrmyr ice massif back landwards and I could find myself caught quite literally between a rock and a hard place. In such circumstances it is likely that Barrabas could be damaged beyond sailability. So, my choice is a tantamount to a drink from the devil’s chalice. Some may say that I could put into Tiksi, over-winter the boat and give it another go next season. Unfortunately, I have neither the time nor financial resources to entertain this option as realistic. It may even be that the cost of transporting the boat through the ice will prove prohibitive. So for the moment, I have a few days to remain here, gather information, watch the weather to the north and come to a decision.

Several days ago I was informed that southerly winds were expected between 3rd and 8th September and that these winds could conceivably clear the ice northeast and thus create a window of opportunity.

Wrong Way Flanagan also believed the Global Warming hype about the arctic ice melting away which is why he undertook his dopey expedition to sail across the arctic by boat in the first place. Serves you right for believing the forecasters.

However, instead we have a cyclone to the north of my position generating storm force northerly winds.

Blame it on Global Warming.

In the north Polar region there are numerous additional complicating factors which make forecasting more of a hit and miss exercise.

Actually there are additional complicating factors all over the world which makes Global Warming forecasting more of a hit and miss exercise.

AARI have informed us that stable southerly and south westerly winds are predicted between 9th and 15th September. Again, if these winds prevail, there is a good chance that the Tyrmyr ice massif will shift to the northeast a sufficient distance to give me the prospect of an inshore route towards the Vilkitskiy Strait.

Let's see. You're frozen in by ice due to believing in dubious forecasting and you're still holding out hope for this. How about this forecast? Every day that passes means that it is quickly getting COLDER in the arctic. Don't hold your breath hoping that Global Warming will somehow extricate you from your embarrassing situation, Wrong Way.

Unfortunately, I have neither the time nor financial resources to entertain this option as realistic.

A principal you should have applied to your dopey expedition in the first place. Placing your faith in the Global Warming alarmists thinking it would allow you to cross the arctic solo in a boat is why you are now a Global Laughingstock.

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