Posted on 08/22/2007 6:17:10 AM PDT by Reaganesque
August 20, 2007
New Gallup Poll: Romney Posts Modest GainsMajority of Republicans unaware of his Iowa victory, however
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has posted modest gains over the last two weeks, both in his favorable rating and in his positioning in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. One presumption is that Romney's gains reflect the visibility that followed his win in the Iowa Republican Party straw poll last weekend, although data in the new Gallup Poll show that only a third of Republicans nationwide are directly aware that Romney won this unofficial contest.
Republican Horse Race
Romney now receives 14% of Republicans' votes when they are asked whom they would like as their party's presidential nominee, up from 8% in each of the two previous Gallup Polls conducted in July and early August. Romney's current positioning puts him slightly behind front-runner Rudy Giuliani and unannounced candidate Fred Thompson, but slightly ahead of John McCain, who slips to 11% in this poll.
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Which of these candidates would you be most likely |
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2007 Jun 11-14 |
2007 Jul 6-8 |
2007 Jul 12-15 |
2007 Aug 3-5 |
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2007 Aug 13-16 |
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Giuliani |
29 |
32 |
33 |
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33 |
32 |
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F. Thompson |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
19 |
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Romney |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
14 |
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McCain |
20 |
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16 |
16 |
16 |
11 |
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Huckabee |
3 |
2 |
2 |
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2 |
4 |
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Paul |
2 |
* |
3 |
2 |
3 |
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Hunter |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
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Hagel |
1 |
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1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
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Brownback |
2 |
1 |
2 |
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1 |
1 |
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Tancredo |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
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T. Thompson |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
n/a |
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Gilmore |
1 |
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* |
* |
n/a |
n/a |
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Pataki |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
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n/a |
n/a |
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Other |
* |
* |
1 |
2 |
1 |
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None/No opinion |
8 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
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* Less than 0.5% |
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Romney's positioning is not a new high point for the former Massachusetts governor; he was at 14% in a Gallup Poll in early June. At that time, however, McCain had a clear claim on second place, while Romney was roughly tied with Thompson for third. The accompanying graph shows the relative positioning of the four leading candidates since February.
These data are based on the Republican ballot and do not include preferences for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. When the ballot is further re-calculated to reflect only the currently declared candidates (thus excluding not only Gingrich but also Thompson and Chuck Hagel), Giuliani is supported by 39% of Republicans, Romney by 17%, McCain by 15%, and Mike Huckabee -- who finished second in the Iowa straw poll -- by 7%. Giuliani and McCain did not participate in the straw poll.
Favorable Rating
Romney's favorable rating has jumped from 22% to 33% over the past two weeks, while his unfavorable rating has fallen from 31% to 24%.
Romney's favorable rating had been in the 22% to 23% range over the previous three polls conducted in July and August, with a higher unfavorable than favorable rating in each of these polls. Although his favorable rating had been as high as 27% in May, the current 33% is his highest to date.
Forty-nine percent of Republicans now have a favorable opinion of Romney, compared with 36% in the prior poll. At the same time, Romney's unfavorable rating among Republicans dropped from 20% to 16%. All in all, Romney's name identification among Republicans -- the percentage who have an opinion of him -- jumped by nine points over the last two weeks.
Still, despite these gains for Romney, his favorable rating among Republicans remains below Giuliani's and McCain's, and although he shares similar favorable ratings with Thompson, his unfavorable rating is more than twice as high. Romney is, however, better known than Thompson (despite the latter's film and TV exposure), and much better known than Huckabee or Sam Brownback.
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Opinion Ratings Among Republicans of |
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Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Don't know/ |
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% |
% |
% |
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Rudy Giuliani |
77 |
14 |
9 |
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John McCain |
59 |
28 |
13 |
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Fred Thompson |
50 |
7 |
43 |
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Mitt Romney |
49 |
16 |
35 |
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Mike Huckabee |
30 |
8 |
62 |
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Sam Brownback |
14 |
13 |
73 |
Awareness of the Iowa Straw Poll Victory
Romney won the Iowa straw poll a week ago with 32% of the vote of Republicans who cast their straw-poll ballots, followed by Huckabee with 18%. One could assume that Romney's image and vote gains in the Aug. 13-16 Gallup Poll reflect in part the positive visibility he received as a result of that victory. That may be the case, but a separate question asked at the end of the poll shows that only a third of Republicans could name Romney as the winner in Iowa.
The change in Romney's positioning in the current poll could in theory have occurred only among Republicans who were aware of his victory in Iowa, but there is no way to know that for sure because there is no way to trend this group to the pre-straw poll survey.
The sample size of Republicans who were aware that Romney had won the Iowa straw poll is quite small (n=178), but it is of interest to look at the vote preferences among this group. The data show that Thompson has a slight lead over Romney among this group, with Giuliani slightly further behind. This finding may reflect the pre-existing characteristics of the group most likely to follow GOP politics closely, or it may be a result of the characteristics of those who were paying attention to the Iowa straw poll specifically. But it is true that Romney (and Thompson) does better among Republicans who were aware of Romney's victory in Iowa than among those who were not.
Summary
All in all, the general finding is that Romney has enjoyed a modest improvement in his standing among Republicans, and that this improvement coincides with the time of his victory in the Iowa straw poll.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,019 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 13-16, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Sorry about the first table, I couldn't get the coding right. Go to the "Source URL" if you want to see the proper formatting.
Looks like McCain is tanking. Good riddance!
Fred’s doing better than Mitt though, and he hasn’t even announced yet.
VOTE FRED!!!
Fred’s lead is nothing more than name recognition at this point.
Romney’s numbers are 33% favorable, 24% unfavorable (which is down from a month ago), and 43% with *NO OPINION*.
In the states that he has campaigned hard in (Iowa and NH), he is leading in the polls.
There isn’t a doubt in my mind that he will be the Republican nominee for President.
True, but we’ll just have to see what happens once Thompson declares. No one can live up to the hype that has surrounded Fred since he first tentatively put his hat in the ring so, it will be interesting to see what happens when he finally pulls the trigger.
Governor Romney is slowly encroaching upon Senator Thompson. Good. I hope his support continues to increase, and Thompson’s continues to plummet.
IF he finally pulls the trigger. I’m afraid most of his momentum will be lost by the time he finally gets around to announcing.
That’s what I’m thinking. I have to wonder what he’s waiting for. He seems interesting as a candidate but, crap or get off the pot, dude!
Fred Thompson hasn’t had a chance to show how aged he looks, either.
Looks like you need to update your numbers, Rocket. That shows 16%—not 43%.
Who did they call on that, anyway? The MassResistance hotline?
agreed about Mitt.....I would prefer Duncan...but for name recognition and a high conservative rating I am going with Fred.....Hunter for veep would not be too shabby either...
IMO - 8% is more than a “modest” gain, especially when his numbers almost doubled. He is doing quite well. Let’s see if he can maintain it.
Romney is one of the only candidates who is even showing a decent gain. Almost every other candidate is dropping at least a small amount or remaining constant. Even Fred Thompson is moving down in the polls after the initial excitement of his potential candidacy. It is also interesting to see Romney’s unfavorables falling as more and more people get to see him. If he can keep this momentum going and continue his national organization-building, being one of the best financed candidates in the field, he’s got a real shot at the nomination.
A one point dip doesn't negate a months-long trend of Romney's unfavorables rising higher and higher.
Rasmussen has Romney's negatives continuing to worsen, eclipsing Hillary's.
Romney has no business doing this well. His current standing is a testament to his political talent. A non-sitting gov from a liberal NE state with zero national profile should not have a punchers chance in hell of winning the nomination. But Romney is in the ring trading haymakers and doesn’t look worse for the wear. He is a very intriguing candidate. The more you see him, the more you like him.
Learn to read.
At this point in the campaign:
16% say they would definitely vote FOR Romney
44% say they would definitely vote AGAINST Romney
That is absolutely pathetic.
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