Posted on 08/16/2007 9:30:03 AM PDT by Plutarch
Fred Thompson's window of opportunity could hardly have been wider. His opponents were fatally flawed in the eyes of the socially conservative Republican base; he's well-known, can raise money, and speaks language that both Republicans and independents leaning right can embrace. Even thinking of entering the race put him above double digits in polls.
But, thanks to a number of missteps and opportunities his pseudo-campaign has failed to capitalize on, Thompson's window is now closed...
The Law & Order star, running a "testing the waters" committee, raised approximately $3.46 million in June after launching June 4th. The campaign's goal was $5 million raised in the same period. Missed expectations are not enough to doom a campaign, but Thompson's media team did little to dampen expectations when they released the report on the last day of July, even though they had to know for weeks that the numbers were lower than expected....
...Fred Thompson had his chance to make a splashy entrance into the race. In fact, he has had many chances to do something to impress political watchers and his fans on the right. Time and again, though, he has missed those opportunities. Instead of managing expectations and raising impressive sums, his campaign reported disappointingly low numbers. Instead of hiring a staff and sticking with it, his campaign has already been beset by turnover. Instead of serving as the conservatives' best hope, they are forced to make excuses as to why his positions are acceptable to them.
Every day he remains out of the race is another day of organizing and winning support lost. At some point, time simply runs out. Thompson has simply waited too long to take advantage of the good will, good fortune and good position that awaited him once he entered the race.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I was a Hunter supporter until very recently. The venom his fans exhibited toward other candidates convinced me that he was going to have a steep hill to climb in this campaign. Keep up the good work.
No illegal aliens...
I see nothing in Reid’s bio that suggests he knows better than Fred Thompson.
LOLOL!
(ouch!)
See, he’s in, but it just takes a bit...
Fred Thompson has anthrax! It has so weakened him that he is physically unable to declare his candidacy.
Thank you Freepers for shooting this to pieces.
So, they give you a buzz?
Well, thanks for your pointless suggestion, but you post your way, and I’ll post mine!
I don’t care who you support. I’ve just noticed you over the last few days, and I know that you’re anti-Fred. As for the “aspersions” cast in this article, they’re so weak. Many harsher aspersions have already been cast and discarded.
Keep dreaming....
Also from RealClearPolitics:
Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/08/haste_makes_waste_fred.html
August 16, 2007
Haste Makes Waste, Fred
By Blake D. Dvorak
Fred Thompson has not missed his moment. The frustration that we’re supposed to be feeling about his delayed entry into the race is being driven by an impatient media and a base aware that most of the primary events up till now mean little. Thompson’s entry, whatever his chances, will be a big event that will overshadow all the summer’s trivial twists and turns.
Part of Thompson’s plan here has to do with the expectations game. Two months ago, Thompson wasn’t just another candidate. He was the conservative savior, the Southern-Fried Ronald Reagan. It was an envious position for any politician but also dangerous. While Rudy Giuliani would be out there surprising Republican voters and earning their respect, Thompson would be disappointing voters whose expectations of him had been ridiculously high. Under those circumstances, Fred-Dot-Com would have burst rather quickly.
Since then, Thompson has made a few blunders and taken his share of hits. But by waiting and letting the excitement dissipate, Thompson has rid himself of some of the silliness that had raised his expectation level to unrealistic heights.
Another part has to do with plain economics. Take Ames, for example. Mitt Romney spent a couple million dollars to win a straw poll against a pack of notable, but clearly second-tier candidates. A victory, but a hollow victory in many ways since Romney’s three main rivals didn’t participate.
Had Thompson announced in June might he have had enough time and resources to beat Romney at Ames? It’s possible, but Romney wasn’t about to be muscled out of Iowa. He needed an Ames victory more than Thompson, whereas a second-place finish for Thompson would have deflated the infant candidacy quickly, not to mention sap precious resources. So the best move for Thompson was not to participate at all, especially since Giuliani and John McCain weren’t going either.
We also should remember that it’s still very early. The new Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday puts the race in some context: Sixteen percent of those Republicans surveyed have no clue about whom they support. In June, that number was 17%; in May, 16%; in February, 15%. What this consistency should tell us is that a sizable portion of the GOP electorate has not been focused on the race.
To reinforce that point, look at Romney, coming off the all-important Ames victory. According to Quinnipiac, 47% of Republicans don’t know enough about him to have an opinion, which is down just slightly from 54% in June. Even Giuliani isn’t any more known to Republicans now than he was in June - those who don’t know him hovers around 12%.
What that means is that the half-dozen or so debates we’ve had since the spring has done very little to boost any of the announced candidates. One can make the case that Giuliani, who had serious baggage going in, had to get out there early and show the base who he is. But why would Thompson, already fairly well known, subject himself to Chris Matthews’ inane lecturing months before it really matters?
Official or otherwise, Thompson has been running for president since the spring. But his patience in holding off any official announcement has allowed him to organize his campaign and develop a theme beyond his original - and slightly arrogant - proclamation about the “times meeting the man.” Come Labor Day, however, Thompson - and the voters - will be ready.
Blake D. Dvorak is an assistant editor at RealClearPolitics.
Well, thanks for your pointless suggestion, but you post your way, and I’ll post mine!
I don’t care who you support. I’ve just noticed you over the last few days, and I know that you’re anti-Fred. As for the “aspersions” cast in this article, they’re so weak. Many harsher aspersions have already been cast and discarded.
Keep dreaming....
yeah, i’m tired of waiting.
all
of the
2008
candidates
looked
flawed
to
me.
So any re-runs that are in syndication won't be a problem because they are not necessarily from the most recent season, and they are not on the channels that are available to everyone, but only on those that are available on cable or satellite.
Things change every day in an election year(s). Fred’s made his choice and will have to live with the consequences. Traditional campaign or not. We shall see, sit back and enjoy the ride. There are going to be disagreements no matter what, hit pieces from the MSM for anyone who shows signs of doing well.
Notice the media spins both sides of it, Fred has waited too long, Fred is smart to wait, Fred doesn’t have a chance now. They don’t know, they don’t have a clue and I can’t see into the future.
Far be it from me to criticize. It is impossible to see right now how this is all going to come out.
His campaign was never really viable and he just strung along his supporters, taking up print time that could have gone to other candidates.
I ‘ll give him one thing though, when he saw he had no chance he dropped out with class.
Now if Rooty McRomney would show that much class and stop wasting time waiting to get run over by FRED! in Sept and just drop out.
Yeah, being in the top 2 in the polls without trying is a sure sign that he has no chance whatsoever.
Has Fred missed his opportunity? Did he wait too long? Just wondering ...
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