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State of the Race: Intrade and Endorsement Race
race42008.com ^ | 08/15/07 | MattC

Posted on 08/16/2007 6:26:13 AM PDT by Reaganesque

August 15, 2007

State of the Race: Intrade and Endorsement Race

The much anticipated, often imitated, never duplicated endorsement race update is here! Before we get to it, though, let’s take a post-Ames look at the Intrade numbers (movement is from the beginning of August to now):

Rank Name Value Movement
1 Giuliani 36.5 -0.2

2 Romney 23.2 +4.4
3 Thompson 21.8

-9.0
4 McCain 6.4 +0.6
5 Paul

5.7 +2.6
6 Huckabee 3.5 +2.7
7

Gingrich 3.4 +0.2
8 Hagel 0.3 +0.1

9 Brownback 0.2 E
  Tancredo 0.2 +0.1

11 Hunter 0.1 E
  T Thompson

  Gilmore

The big news here has to be Thompson’s collapse of support, coupled with Romney nearing his highest closing value ever (23.8) which threw Fred out of first place all the way down to third and elevated Romney into second. Additionally, the investors are interested in Mike Huckabee after his second place Ames showing (and not so interested in Brownback), although they are still wary of what it means for Huckabee: on another contract they give the Huckster a 50/50 chance of dropping out of the race by the end of 2007.

Now onto the Endorsement Race chart with a reminder of what the tiers mean:

First Tier - Current Senators, Representatives, and Governors

Second Tier - Former Senators, Representatives, and Governors
Third Tier - RNC Committee Members
Fourth Tier - The number of states the candidate has won the endorsement of a majority of state legislators.

Here’s your endorsement race, with the names below the fold. As always, if a name is left off it was not done intentionally. If you see an endorsement I missed, tell me about it in the comments (and include a link):

Brownback Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Romney Thompson

First Tier 2 21 3 6 30 31 19

Second Tier 1 3 1 0 6 8 3

Third Tier 0 0 0 0 3 26 1

Fourth Tier 0 0 0 0 1 3 2

Brownback
First Tier
US Sen Pat Roberts (R-KS)
US Rep Todd Tiahrt (R-KS)

Second Tier
Ex-US Rep Jim Bunn (R-OR)

Giuliani

First Tier
US Sen David Vitter (R-LA)
US Rep Mary Bono (R-CA)
US Rep David Dreier (R-CA)
US Rep Devin Nunes (R-CA)
US Rep Jerry Lewis (R-CA)
US Rep Ed Royce (R-CA)
US Rep George Radanovich (R-CA)
US Rep Judy Biggert (R-IL)

US Rep Jerry Weller (R-IL)
US Rep Charles Boustany (R-LA)
US Rep Candice Miller (R-MI)
US Rep Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ)
US Rep Jon Porter (R-NV)
US Rep Peter King (R-NY)
US Rep Vito Fossella (R-NY)
US Rep Jim Walsh (R-NY)
US Rep Charlie Dent (R-PA)

US Rep Phil English (R-PA)
US Rep Jim Gerlach (R-PA)
US Rep Pete Sessions (R-TX)
US Rep Dave Reichert (R-WA)

Second Tier
Ex-Gov Bob Ehrlich (R-MD)
Ex-Gov Paul Cellucci (R-MA)
Ex-US Rep Jim Nussle (R-IA)

Huckabee

First Tier
US Rep John Boozman (R-AR)
US Rep Don Young (R-AK)
Gov Mike Rounds (R-SD)

Second Tier
Ex-Gov David Beasley (SC)

Hunter
First Tier
US Rep Terry Everett (R-AL)

US Rep Trent Franks (R-AZ)
US Rep Bill Young (R-FL)
US Rep Jim Saxton (R-NJ)
US Rep John Culberson (R-TX)
US Rep Ralph Hall (R-TX)

McCain
First Tier
US Sen Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
US Sen Susan Collins (ME)

US Sen Olympia Snowe (ME)
US Sen Trent Lott (R-MS)
US Sen Richard Burr (R-NC)
US Sen Gordon Smith (R-OR)
US Sen Lindsay Graham (R-SC)
US Sen John Thune (R-SD)
US Sen John Warner (R-VA)
US Rep Spencer Bachus (R-AL)
US Rep Jim Kolbe (R-AZ)

US Rep Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
US Rep Rick Renzi (R-AZ)
US Rep John Shadegg (R-AZ)
US Rep Dan Lungren (R-CA)
US Rep Christopher Shays (R-CT)
US Rep Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL)
US Rep Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL)
US Rep Ric Keller (R-FL)
US Rep Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL)

US Rep Mark Kirk (R-IL)
US Rep Ray LaHood (R-IL)
US Rep John Shimkus (R-IL)
US Rep Fred Upton (R-MI)
US Rep Chip Pickering (R-MS)
US Rep Steve LaTourette (R-OH)
US Rep Todd Platts (R-PA)
Gov Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Gov Jon Huntsman, Jr (R-UT)

Gov Mitch Daniels (R-IN)

Second Tier
Ex-Gov Jane Swift (R-MA)
Ex-Gov Frank Keating (R-OK)
Ex-Gov Tom Ridge (R-PA)
Ex-Gov Buddy Roemer (R-LA)
Ex-US Sen Phil Gramm (R-SC)
Ex-US Sen Mike DeWine (R-OH)

Third Tier

Alec Poitevint (GA)
Holly Hughes (MI)
Chuck Yob (MI)

Fourth Tier
South Carolina

Romney
First Tier
US Sen Larry Craig (R-ID)
US Sen Jim DeMint (R-SC)

US Sen Robert Bennett (R-UT)
US Sen Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
US Sen Wayne Allard (R-CO)
US Rep Robert Aderholt (R-AL)
US Rep Mike Rogers (R-AL)
US Rep John Campbell (R-CA)
US Rep Buck McKeon (R-CA)
US Rep Ginny Brown-Waite (R-FL)
US Rep Tom Feeney (R-FL)

US Rep Phil Gingrey (R-GA)
US Rep John Linder (R-GA)
US Rep Tom Price (R-GA)
US Rep Mike Simpson (R-ID)
US Rep Dennis Hastert (R-IL)
US Rep Ron Lewis (R-KY)
US Rep Hal Rogers (R-KY)
US Rep Ed Whitfield (R-KY)
US Rep Rodney Alexander (R-LA)

US Rep Jim McCrery (R-LA)
US Rep Dave Camp (R-MI)
US Rep Pete Hoekstra (R-MI)
US Rep Joe Knollenberg (R-MI)
US Rep Vernon Ehlers (R-MI)
US Rep Ralph Regula (R-OH)
US Rep Bill Shuster (R-PA)
US Rep Mike Conaway (R-TX)
US Rep Lamar Smith (R-TX)

Gov Matt Blunt (R-MO)
Gov Don Carcieri (R-RI)

Second Tier
Ex-Gov William Weld (R-MA/NY)
Ex-Gov Jim Edwards (R-SC)
Ex-Gov Bill Owens (R-CO)
Ex-Gov Kenny Guinn (R-NV)
Ex-US Sen Jim Talent (R-MO)
Ex-US Rep Tommy Hartnett (R-SC)

Ex-US Rep Bob Beauprez (R-CO)
Ex-US Rep Henry Bonilla (R-TX)

Third Tier
Teo Fuavai (AS)
Lily Nunez (CO)
Betsy Werronen (DC)
Tony Parker (DC)
Diane Adams (IN)
James Bopp, Jr. (IN)

Darrell Crate (MA)
Jody Dow (MA)
Ron Kaufman (MA)
Joyce Lyon Terhes (MD)
Louis Pope (MD)
Peter Cianchette (ME)
Doug Russell (MO)
Tom Rath (NH)
Joe Kyrillos (NJ)

David Norcross (NJ)
Lynn Windel (OK)
June Hartley (OR)
Solomon Yue (OR)
Vance Day (OR)
Robert Manning (RI)
Cindy Costa (SC)
Randy Frederick (SD)
Stephanie Chivers (TN)

Sara Gear Boyd (VT)
Donna Gosney (WV)

Fourth Tier
Michigan
Massachusetts
Utah

Thompson
First Tier
US Sen Lamar Alexander (R-TN)

US Sen Bob Corker (R-TN)
US Rep Jeff Miller (R-FL)
US Rep Adam Putnam (R-FL)
US Rep Nathan Deal (R-GA)
US Rep Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA)
US Rep Don Manzullo (R-IL)
US Rep Steve Buyer (R-IN)
US Rep Dan Burton (R-IN)
US Rep Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI)

US Rep Roger Wicker (R-MS)
US Rep Sue Myrick (R-NC)
US Rep Lee Terry (R-NE)
US Rep Gresham Barrett (R-SC)
US Rep Marsh Blackburn (R-TN)
US Rep David Davis (R-TN)
US Rep John Duncan (R-TN)
US Rep Zach Wamp (R-TN)
US Rep Louie Gohmert (R-TX)

Second Tier
Ex-US Sen Bill Frist (R-TN)
Ex-US Sen Howard Baker (R-TN)
Ex-US Sen Al D’Amato (R-NY)

Third Tier
Denise McNamara (TX)

Fourth Tier
Missouri

Tennessee

by MattC @ 9:20 am. Filed under Endorsements, 2008 Misc.



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; electionpresident; elections; endorsements; fredthompson; giuliani; gop; huckabee; ia2008; mittromney; polls; romney; rudygiuliani; rudymcromney; stoprudy
These are interesting numbers. Mitt is showing slow, but steady progress while Giuliani's numbers continue their slide. Most surprising is the drop in Fred Thompson's number.
1 posted on 08/16/2007 6:26:15 AM PDT by Reaganesque
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To: Austin1; bcbuster; beaversmom; bethtopaz; BlueAngel; Bluestateredman; borntoraisehogs; Bosco; ...
Mitt Ping!

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List


2 posted on 08/16/2007 6:28:06 AM PDT by Reaganesque (Romney for President 2008)
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To: Reaganesque

Sorry, I couldn’t get the first chart to come out right. Click on the headline at the top of the story to see it formatted correctly.


3 posted on 08/16/2007 6:29:26 AM PDT by Reaganesque (Romney for President 2008)
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To: Reaganesque

I know that Rep. Hal Roger’s endorsement will help Romney in Kentucky....Rep. Rogers is well loved in his district, (I believe he won his last election with an opponent something like 98% to 2%) and people listen to what he has to say.

That being said, campaigns change so quickly.... this will be an interest primary season.


4 posted on 08/16/2007 8:20:26 AM PDT by IMissPresidentReagan ("My Friends we did it....we made a difference. ...All in all not bad, not bad at all." Pres. Reagan)
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To: IMissPresidentReagan

It is still very early but, I like what I see so far in terms of progress for Mitt’s campaign.


5 posted on 08/16/2007 9:24:44 AM PDT by Reaganesque (Romney for President 2008)
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To: Reaganesque

I agree. I admittedly hadnt been paying much attention until Hannity started having everyone on... and then the more I heard of Mitt, the more I liked him. It’ll be easier to see how things are going once the field narrows a bit more though.


6 posted on 08/16/2007 9:28:38 AM PDT by IMissPresidentReagan ("My Friends we did it....we made a difference. ...All in all not bad, not bad at all." Pres. Reagan)
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To: IMissPresidentReagan

You said: I agree. I admittedly hadnt been paying much attention until Hannity started having everyone on... and then the more I heard of Mitt, the more I liked him. It’ll be easier to see how things are going once the field narrows a bit more though.

I say: I think that what is happening to you is the same thing that is happening to others. I think that many people have an initial negative knee-jerk reaction to Mitt Romney. Maybe because he was the governor of MA, maybe because he’s Mormon, maybe because he’s so dang handsome and seemingly “perfect,” but when you start listening to him talk about all the issue, and research his background, you just can’t help but be more and more impressed and excited about his potential to be the next President of the United States.


7 posted on 08/16/2007 4:47:07 PM PDT by bethtopaz (I'm a flag-wavin' American! Support our beloved troops!)
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To: Reaganesque
Mitt is showing slow, but steady progress...

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Most surprising is the drop in Fred Thompson's number...

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For the last day, Mitt has been #2, ahead of Fred at Intrade.

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8 posted on 08/16/2007 5:03:49 PM PDT by Plutarch
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To: bethtopaz; IMissPresidentReagan
Agree with you both. I clued into Romney last Fall (I am Mormon and the subject came up on Mormon related threads). My intital impression of him was not much (based on the liberal MSM version of who he is) but the more I got to know him the more convinced and excited I became that he will make a good President. Unmarked Package (non-Mormon) has some good reserach about what he did as Governor her on his homepage. Most mormons I talk to about him are not really aware of what is going on with the Presidential race, like the majority of Americans, and only know the little they hear from the MSM. It is suprising to me but I think they will have the same expereince as the political junkies as they get to know him.
9 posted on 08/17/2007 2:38:40 PM PDT by Rameumptom (Gen X= they killed 1 in 4 of us)
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