Posted on 08/11/2007 10:44:23 PM PDT by HAL9000
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 PM HST SAT AUG 11 2007A BURST OF EYEWALL CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE EYE ITSELF AS DETECTED IN INFRARED DATA PUSHED SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO 127 KT FROM BOTH PHFO AND SAB. THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 120 KT. SINCE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE FIX...WILL FAVOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE VALUE OF 120 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OR CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 11 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE THIS TREND THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES...AND THE UNCERTAINTY...BECOME SIGNIFICANT BEYOND DAY 1. THE GFDL...BAM-DEEP AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO BE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS WHILE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS. OF INTEREST IS THE LARGE SHIFT OF THE HWRF WHICH NOW LIES IN THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER ALONG WITH THE GFS...ECMWF AND JAPANESE SPECTRAL MODELS. THE DECIDING FACTOR CONTINUES TO DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THE INTENSITY. IF THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN FLOSSIE...THE TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHERN GROUP WITH A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION MORE IN LINE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS. IF FLOSSIE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...THE TRACK WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND CLOSE TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE.
AS FOR INTENSITY...FLOSSIE MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE FORECAST TRACK STEADILY DECREASING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND DAY 2 NEAR 150W. THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO WEAKEN FLOSSIE STEADILY WITH ITS INTENSITY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER DAY 3. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A CLOSER APPROACH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 13.4N 142.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 13.8N 143.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.4N 146.1W 105 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 15.2N 148.3W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 15.9N 150.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.4N 154.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 18.6N 158.2W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 20.2N 161.6W 40 KT$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
Yikes! I am perched on the Big Island, and it looks like we will soon be in the teeth of Flossie.
I’m getting nervous.....
“FLOSSIE”?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081112&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
Funny as heck, tho. Click 'fast fwd' to set it in motion.
The entire article was shouted at us.
;-)
Yeah, no kidding. I’ve never seen a hurricane do *that* over Florida in reality...
HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. FLOSSIE HAS A VERY WARM WELL DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SYSTEM ALSO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A REMARKABLE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUS INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN REVERSED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTED A SLIGHT WEAKENING...SO THE CURRENT ADVISORY SHOWED A DECREASE IN THE INITIAL MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS TO 115 KT.
THE LONG TERM MOTION OF FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE STRONG MID-PACIFIC OCEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WOBBLES OF THE EYE THAT ARE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE THE MEAN TRACK OF FLOSSIE REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE PACKAGE RECEIVED AT CPHC HAS SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN THE SPREAD OF THE FORECAST TRACKS AS FLOSSIE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED MUCH FARTHER TO THE LEFT NOW. AS A RESULT...THE CONSENSUS MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN NUDGED MORE TO THE LEFT. THIS PROVIDES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THE MOMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF FLOSSIE. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE MOST HOSTILE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO IMPLY FUTURE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE GFDL...SINCE THE TRACK HAS MOVED MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR ERRORS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY ARE STILL LARGE...ESPECIALLY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND.
ALL THOSE WHO ARE FOLLOWING FLOSSIE ARE URGED NOT FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK OF THE CALM EYE. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE EYE WALL SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE EXTEND FAR BEYOND THIS LINE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE OF FLOSSIE MAY PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IT COULD STILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS VERY STRONG HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 13.6N 143.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.0N 145.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.7N 147.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.4N 149.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.2N 151.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.6N 155.4W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.9N 159.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 20.3N 162.3W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
We certainly hope not, but need to keep an
eye on it. Don’t want it to turn like Iniki did.
I guess because it has been so long . . . you know . .
No problemo just saw the forcast on CNN and they predict it will be down a Cat one by the time it gets near you. Cooler waters they claim are the reason and if it goes farther south you are in da clear
DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF ITS VERY FAVORABLE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT FAR FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT LAND MASSES. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. AS WAS NOTED 6 HOURS EARLIER...SHORT-TERM WOBBLES OF THE EYE ARE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE AVERAGE TRACK OF FLOSSIE REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVERNIGHT. DURING A RECENT COORDINATION CALL WITH THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT JTWC...IT WAS POINTED OUT THAT AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG LONGITUDE 137W. THIS TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS NORTH NORTHEAST OF FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE POSITIVE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG WITH THE WARM TROPICAL OCEAN APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING FLOSSIE/S INTENSITY. THE UW/CIMMS ADT ESTIMATE FOR 1130 UTC WAS 6.0. THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.0 FROM JTWC AND 6.5 FROM SAB AND HFO SUGGESTED THAT FLOSSIE HAS MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KT.
THE LATEST MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE 72 TO 120 HOUR FORECAST TIME FRAME THAN THE RUNS MADE 12 HOURS AGO. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAJOR MODEL BRINGING FLOSSIE ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH THE GFDL RUN BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE CONSENSUS MODELS WERE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK.
ONCE AGAIN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THE MOMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FUTURE PATH OF FLOSSIE. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE MOST HOSTILE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO IMPLY FUTURE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR ERRORS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY ARE STILL LARGE...ESPECIALLY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND.
THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST MAY REQUIRE WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.7N 144.6W 120 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 14.1N 146.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 15.0N 148.5W 105 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 15.8N 150.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 152.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 156.1W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 19.3N 159.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.8N 163.9W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
I thought if it hit in the Pacific it was a Typhoon.
I think a cyclone has to be on the other side of the International Date Line to be called a typhoon.
Surf’s up...
I thought the chicken littles were awaiting a huge hurricane season for the Atlantic? Because of GLOBAL WARMING!! Right.
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST OR ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 795 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
EVERYONE IN HAWAII IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE BULLETINS AS
THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...14.4 N...148.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.6 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 635 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE FLOSSIE ARE EXPECTED ON THE BIG
ISLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND. EVERYONE IN HAWAII IS URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE BULLETINS AS THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE MOVES
TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...15.3 N...150.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... 39 MPH AND HIGHER...DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FLOSSIE TUESDAY MID-MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS HURRICANE FLOSSIE PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANY SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND...WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS.
THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL BRING 8 TO 12 FT SURF TO SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 FT ON TUESDAY. SURF ALONG NORTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE 5 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 FEET TUESDAY.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE 10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE...MAY FALL ON EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.0 WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 535 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...OAHU.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...15.9 N...152.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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