Posted on 07/09/2007 1:32:26 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Rudy Giuliani never misses an opportunity to remind people about his track record in fighting crime as mayor of New York City from 1994 to 2001.
"I began with the city that was the crime capital of America," Giuliani, now a candidate for president, recently told Fox's Chris Wallace. "When I left, it was the safest large city in America. I reduced homicides by 67 percent. I reduced overall crime by 57 percent."
While crime did fall dramatically in New York during Giuliani's tenure, a broad range of scientific research has emerged in recent years to show the mayor deserves only a fraction of the credit that he claims. The most compelling information has come from an economist in Fairfax, Va., who has argued in a series of little-noticed papers that the "New York miracle" was caused by local and federal efforts decades earlier to reduce exposure to lead poisoning.
The theory offered by the economist, Rick Nevin, is that lead poisoning accounts for much of the variation in violent crime in the United States. It offers a unifying new neurochemical explanation for fluctuations in the crime rate and is based on studies linking exposure to lead in children with violent behavior later in their lives.
What makes Nevin's work persuasive is that he has shown an identical, decades-long association between lead poisoning and crime rates in nine countries.
"It is stunning how strong the association is," Nevin said in an interview. "Sixty-five to 90 percent or more of the substantial variation in violent crime in all these countries was explained by lead." Through much of the 20th century, lead in U.S. paint and gasoline fumes poisoned toddlers as they put contaminated hands in their mouths. The consequences on crime, Nevin found, occurred when poisoning victims became adolescents. Nevin does not say lead is the only factor behind crime, but he says it's the biggest.
Giuliani's presidential campaign declined to address Nevin's contention that the mayor merely was at the right place at the right time. But William Bratton, who served as Giuliani's police commissioner and initiated many of the policing techniques credited with reducing the crime rate, dismissed Nevin's theory as absurd. Bratton and Giuliani instituted harsh measures against quality-of-life offenses, based on the "broken windows" theory of addressing minor offenses to head off more serious crimes.
Other theories
Many other theories have emerged to explain the crime decline. In the 2005 book Freakonomics, Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner said the legalization of abortion in 1973 had eliminated "unwanted babies" who would have become violent criminals. Other experts credited lengthy prison terms for violent offenders, or demographic changes, socioeconomic factors, and the rise and fall of drug epidemics.
Most of the theories have been long on intuition and short on evidence. Nevin's data not only explain the decline in crime in the 1990s, but the rise in crime in the 1980s, and other fluctuations going back a century. His data from multiple countries, which have different abortion rates, police strategies, demographics and economic conditions, show lead is the only explanation that can account for international trends.
Because the countries phased out lead at different points, they provide a rigorous test: In each instance, the violent crime rate tracks lead poisoning levels two decades earlier.
"It is startling how much mileage has been given to the theory that abortion in the early 1970s was responsible for the decline in crime" in the 1990s, Nevin said. "But they legalized abortion in Britain and the violent crime in Britain soared in the 1990s. The difference is our gasoline lead levels peaked in the early '70s and started falling in the late '70s, and fell very sharply through the early 1980s and was virtually eliminated by 1986 or '87.
"In Britain and most of Europe, they did not have meaningful constraints (on leaded gasoline) until the mid-1980s and even early 1990s," he added. "This is the reason you are seeing the crime rate soar in Mexico and Latin America, but (it) has fallen in the United States."
Lead levels plummeted in New York in the early 1970s, driven by federal policies to eliminate lead from gasoline and local policies to reduce lead emissions from municipal incinerators. Between 1970 and 1974, the number of New York children heavily poisoned by lead fell by more than 80 percent, according to data from the New York City Department of Health.
Lead levels in New York have continued to fall. One analysis in the late 1990s found that children in New York had lower lead exposure than children in many other big U.S. cities, possibly because of a 1960 policy to replace old windows. That policy, meant to reduce deaths from falls, had an unforeseen benefit - old windows are a continuing source of lead poisoning, said Dave Jacobs of the National Center for Healthy Housing.
The effect was dramatic. In 1990, 31 New Yorkers out of every 100,000 were murdered. In 2004, the rate was 7 per 100,000 - lower than most big cities. The lead theory also explains why crime fell broadly across the United States in the 1990s, not just in New York.
Century-long analysis
The centerpiece of Nevin's research is a century-long analysis of crime rates and lead poisoning levels: The United States has had two spikes of lead poisoning, one at the turn of the 20th century, linked to lead in household paint, and after World War II, when the use of leaded gasoline increased sharply.
Both times, the violent crime rate went up and down in concert - with the violent crime peaks coming two decades after the lead poisoning peaks.
Other evidence has accumulated in recent years that lead is a neurotoxin that causes impulsivity and aggression, but these studies have also drawn little attention. In 2001, sociologist Paul Stretesky and criminologist Michael Lynch showed that U.S. counties with high lead levels had four times the murder rate of counties with low lead levels, after controlling for multiple socioeconomic factors.
In 2002, Herbert Needleman, a psychiatrist at the University of Pittsburgh, compared lead levels of 194 adolescents arrested in Pittsburgh with lead levels of 146 high school adolescents: The arrested youths had lead levels that were four times higher.
"Impulsivity means you ignore the consequences of what you do," said Needleman, one of the country's foremost experts on lead poisoning, explaining why Nevin's theory is plausible. Lead decreases the ability to tell yourself, "If I do this, I will go to jail."
Nevin's work has been published mainly in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research.
If my kids and grandkids have to live under a boot heel, to Hell with safe cities! I hear that Havana is even safer than NYC, Rudy!
I’ve shared the water with sharks and gators, sailed big water in little boats, I dodged the teeth and bullets all my life and I wish I could do it all again.
Safe cities, my behind, want a safe city? Be a man, refuse to cower and whimper.
Best I shut up while I’m ahead, but dammit anyway!
(1) Giuliani and other mayors implementing Jack Maple's CompStat program for tracking crimes and punishing QOL violations, and
(2) Putting more violent criminals behind bars for longer.
Exactly
That link shows the majority of the drops happening under Giuliani’s watch and increasing during the late 90’s. Also, if you compare the performance over time compared to other cities, NYC improved more than other cities, and by 2001, while other cities like chicago and San Diego were experiencing resurgence in crime, NYC continued to see crime drop.
Credit due to Giuliani.
Latch on to this at your peril. If you despise Rudy enough to trade your intellect for few electrons on a flat-screen, you're to be pitied.
Accepting the willfully blind -- and that should leave us with a handful of FReepers -- anyone can see the Mr. Giuliani is charismatic and strong and, as a former Federal Prosecutor who took down Michael Milken, certainly had some momentum in the way of "law enforcement" going for him, in marked contrast to his predecessors in NYC.
Even his most animated detractors can see this, unless they've made themselves willfully blind, in which case they've become the "useful idiots" they so like to assail here.
“He merely put a sociologist’s theory to practice and got lucky it worked as it did.”
There is no “merely” for a guy like Guliani implementing such policies in violently liberal NY.
There is a lot I don’t like about him but he’s probably the toughest SOB running to date.
Demographics are much in play. Baby Boom followed by Baby Bust. If there is a high crime rate then look for a high percentage of young people.
His avowed support for gun control and abortion on demand are lies?
Guiliani and NYC are perfect for each other. The city needed his authoritarian, F-you style of leadership.
Problem is, most of America isn't New York. My city's mayor sure in the hell wouldn't participate in a gay pride parade if we had one; nor would he dare try to "crack down" on gun owners in the ruse of fighting crime.
So let Rudy run for Mayor of Philly or L.A. and clean up those cities and leave the Presidency alone.
I dont agree with his support for abortion and gun control, and that isnt what I am talking about here.
I am talking about his tenure as a crime fighting mayor, for which he should be given credit. I can differentiate issues. What made him a good mayor wont necessarily translate to being a good potus.
And it is obvious from the current vigilance of key offices and buildings in NYC that the feds are in charge of overall security against terrorism- something that should have happened after the first WTC event.
These clowns who base their conclusion about lead/crime on two correlated trend events call themselves scientists?
Jeez. I guess the bar for statistical hand-waves has gotten much lower since the global warming hucksters got away with it.
You’re onto the major reason right there.
Out here in Nevada, our highway patrol runs every plate/license of people they stop except possibly locals they know personally. They especially run all out-of-state plates.
Why?
Because they find a whole bunch of people with very interesting background coming through/into Nevada. Common traffic stops for little things like running a stop sign frequently yield big busts. Our local NHP officers like to think of out-of-state traffic stops as being like “opening a box of Cracker Jacks — you sometimes get a really nifty prize!” Things like a trunk full of meth or pot, stolen property, felony wants and warrants, you name it. There’s a lot of wanted criminals trying to wander through a itty-bitty little town in the middle of nowhere on their way to somewhere else.
I've been living here most of my life and ...
What was I saying?
Harumph!
Giuliani did not get the ball rolling with respect to crime rates, as so many try to claim. Those are merely lies.
I dont think its a lie to say, he instituted Compstat which was directly responsible for the targeting of crime, sharing of tactics, and in general increasing accountability of NYPD policing.
If you are trying to claim that Giuliani was not responsible for huge reductions of crime in NYC, then you are either spewing an utter lie or dont know what you are talking about.
I didn’t say that. Don’t distort (lie) about what i said. That makes YOU the liar here.
Giuliani did not get the ball rolling with regard to crime reduction, and certainly doesn’t deserve the praise he gets as the only one who is responsible for crime reduction in NYC. So many people try to claim it’s all becausse of Rudy, which isn’t true. Most don’t even know the stats, but will say rudy deserves the lions share of the credit, which is a lie.
Geez, the rabid Giuliani fans can’t support their homo-loving man with out being liars. Damn, that’s sad they support a candidate so flawed they have to lie to find a way to support him.
Let’s see... Lead paint outlawed around ‘74/’75, regular leaded gas banned around the same time. Wouldn’t this guy’s theory make most of us that are over 40 drooling criminals?
I do give Guiliani (and more so Bratton, but Guiliani bought on) credit for the lower crime in New York. New York, despite it’s size had crime drop to levels much lower than significantly smaller cities, all which were lead free or had abortion.
However, just because Guiliani lowered crime doesn’t mean I am required to vote for him.
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