Posted on 06/19/2007 6:52:38 AM PDT by Neville72
There’s change at the top in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson earning support from 28% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani attracts support from 27%. While Thompson’s one-point edge is statistically insignificant, it is the first time all year that anybody but Giuliani has been on top in Rasmussen Reports polling. A week ago, Thompson and Giuliani were tied at 24%.
It remains an open question as to how Thompson will hold up once he actually enters the campaign and has to compete directly with other candidates. To date, he retains the allure of the new kid in town while GOP voters already know the things they don’t like about the others. Still, Thompson’s rise to the top provides a telling measure of how the other GOP hopefuls have failed to capture the imagination of the party they hope to lead.
Once gain this week, Arizona Senator John McCain and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are tied for a distant third. This week, both men attract 10% support. Last week, they were both at the 11% level of support. For McCain, this is a continuation of a downward trend. For Romney, it reflects a fairly steady position. Romney is doing well in selected state polls but has been unable to gain much traction and expand his support nationwide.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Kansas Senator Sam Brownback are each the top choice for 2% of the likely voters.
The combined total for five other candidates in the race is just under 3%. Those candidates are Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Eighteen percent (18%) say they’re not sure how they will vote.
This is the first Rasmussen Reports poll to exclude former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as a candidate. Gingrich earned 7% support in last week’s polling but has recently made statements indicating he is not likely to enter the 2008 race as candidate.
Giuliani remains the most well-liked candidate in either party. He is viewed favorably by 82% of Republicans nationwide and unfavorably by 15%. Thompson, not as well known, is the only other candidate with so few Republicans holding an unfavorable opinion of him. The actor turned Senator turned actor again is viewed favorably by 59% of Republicans and unfavorably by 14%.
Among Republicans, Romney and McCain both have lower favorables and higher unfavorables than the frontrunners. For Romney, those GOP numbers are 56% favorable and 28% unfavorable. McCain, among the nation’s best known political figures, is viewed favorably by 55% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%.
While Giuliani is well liked, only 21% of Republicans view him as politically conservative. Twice as many, 42%, believe that Thompson is politically conservative.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays. The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 618 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 11-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.
In some states, independent voters are allowed to participate in Republican primaries. In others, only Republicans can participate. Among Republicans only in the current poll, it’s Thompson 29% Giuliani 24% Romney 11% and McCain 10%.
McCain’s recent decline in the polls has been tied closely to his support for the unpopular immigration reform bill. A Rasmussen Reports analysis of what happened to the McCain campaign noted that the man once considered a maverick is now the candidate most closely aligned with President Bush on two hot-button issues—the War in Iraq and immigration. That linkage is problematic when just 27% of voters nationwide say the President is doing a good or excellent job handling the situation in Iraq and only 15% give him favorable reviews on the immigration issue.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. Also regularly updated are favorability ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists along with public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics.
Good analysis. PSUAdam is young (graduated in ‘03), and hasn’t come to an undersanding of Conservative politics.
The GOP wins elections when it stands on Conservative principals. It loses when it tries to be everything to everybody. PSUAdam touts the ‘broad brush’ philosophy of making the GOP open to everyone. Conservatives can’t win in states like New Hampshire, New York, Connecticut, et. al. because few there are likely to vote Conservative. Thus the GOP, to win, has to promote more centrist candidates.
Well, that’s what has gotten us into this situation to begin with. We’ve been far too amenable to centrist candidates, to the harm of the Conservative cause. This is a’ goin’ to change come 2008. Only, it won’t happen with Rudy, Johnny McC, or whoever. They’re going to soon see the handwriting on the wall; McC may already witnessed it.
But, but, but... I thought Rudy was the only hope to beat Hillary!!!!
Sheesh!
“Rasmussen National poll: Thompson 28% Giuliani 27%”
What’s that smell? Did Ruby just mess himself?
“Romney is a question mark... one would think that he’d move up, but he seems pretty stagnant.”
He’ll be in the cabinet if not VP.
Heh. I’ve been away a few hours and I come back to find the Rootybots in full meltdown over today’s Rasmussen poll.
They should be melting down. Their man’s ultimate fate as a presidential also-ran just started becoming clearer.
An undeclared candidate who hasn’t spent a dime just blew by their boy into 1st place.
One more RINO on his way to political extinction.
Dems are literally terrified of Thompson. They know he’ll wipe the floor with Hillary and anyone else they nominate. Fred connects with the base — voters. He doesn’t mince words. If he doesn’t agree with you, he’ll say so and explain why. No nuancing, no avoiding answers. He’ll win the south easily, and we need southern states to win.
You must know he has an HBO special coming out and if he declared too soon — before it’s aired — HBO would have to offer free air time to all the other candidates. Watch his video aimed at Michael Moore. It demonstrates Fred’s use of humor and his down home approach. It aired the day of the first republican debate and sucked all the air out of their balloon. No one talked about the dull debate. Everyone talked about Fred’s clever put down of Moore. (Hill quickly had a video made aping the Sopranos. She wouldn’t have done that if Fred’s video hadn’t been a smash.)
Compared to other Republicans he leads among: religious voters, the college educated, and married men. Rudy leads among the young (with 50% of his support in the blue states), and McCain among women.
Ask yourself...whom votes in the primary: the young....not really....women,...yes to an extent....
or...
Religious, college educated, and married men?
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/06/parsing_the_polls_whos_a_fred.html
Cleary if this is the continual trend, Fred will win the primary nomination.
Pity.
I'm wagering most already have...at least once.
Is there a possibility that Fred will take Romney as his VEEP running mate or will he choose his old buddy, John McCain?
I don’t care either way, as long as Fred is at the top of the ticket and Rudy Julie Annie is not on the ticket at all.
Are you afraid of Wakers?
yes....and I know something is under my bed at night too.....been there since I was a kid.
You know what I'm talking about right?
I would assume you are talking about the perception over here that Wakers exist to attack FR and support Guiliani. From reading your forum posts I know that you have been over to WA. If you have spent any time over there at all you have to know that the above mentioned perceptions are false. Thus I find myself wondering why you would wish such a harsh fate on others....
ALL rootie all amnesty all the time site. What's to be afraid of? There's like 10 of em, right?
And zotted since about twenty minutes ago. He could only hide his core liberalism for so long.
More like 700 and nothing could be further from the truth.
We ARE the official FREDeration!
it's sarcastic hyperbole....you are not stupid.
the WAs are largely socially liberalto moderate former FReepers many of whom had it in for social conservatives (for years....boot heels on their throats as they called it)here especially over immigration and helped get many of us banned here over the years running in packs and conspiring to control the place.
Well now nearly all of them are gone and have their own little tidy site where they can harpie each other till the cows come home.
It's such a twilight zone over there that Stinkspur is considered now a hardliner on amensty.
And btw....I was friendly to and rather loyal to several ladies who proved to be major harpies in that bunch and they turned out to be rather hollow, not the worst but hollow.
That I am glad they are not here now but I am should shock no one.
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