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Iran Nearing The Tipping Point? ( Mullahs in crackdown on dissent )
Captain's Quarters ^ | June 16, 2007 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 06/16/2007 12:58:10 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

The mullahcracy in Iran has apparently unleashed its latent paranoia, resulting in a crackdown on dissent not seen since the 1979 Revolution. The Iranian government has moved to quell academic debate, silence citizen groups, purge their internal security systems, and generally tighten the screws on the Iranian people:

Iran is in the midst of a sweeping crackdown that both Iranians and U.S. analysts compare to a cultural revolution in its attempt to steer the oil-rich theocracy back to the rigid strictures of the 1979 revolution.

The recent detentions of Iranian American dual nationals are only a small part of a campaign that includes arrests, interrogations, intimidation and harassment of thousands of Iranians as well as purges of academics and new censorship codes for the media. Hundreds of Iranians have been detained and interrogated, including a top Iranian official, according to Iranian and international human rights groups. ...

The widespread purges and arrests are expected to have an impact on parliamentary elections next year and the presidential contest in 2009, either discouraging or preventing reformers from running against the current crop of hard-liners who dominate all branches of government, Iranian and U.S. analysts say. The elections are one of several motives behind the crackdowns, they add.

Public signs of discontent -- such as students booing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on a campus last December, teacher protests in March over low wages and workers demonstrating on May Day -- are also behind the detentions, according to Iranian sources.

"The current crackdown is a way to instill fear in the population in order to discourage them from future political agitation as the economic situation begins to deteriorate," said Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.


(Excerpt) Read more at captainsquartersblog.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iran
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; FARS
As FARS so ably indicates, this whole mess is not going to be hardly possible to correct. And with no solid opposing factions that represent a real westernized set of ideals, it is impossible to form a sufficient majority that are willing to shed their blood to physically kill the religious leadership as well as the Republican Guard.
Only the regular army could have the ability, pledge their lives and their fortitude in essence to dislodge this deep rooted pestilence they live with on a daily basis.
A total revolution sponsored and backed by the regular military forces is the only way they might succeed.
The populace is not even armed.
And unlike in times of old, one simply does not just storm the ramparts of some armory for instance, and obtain arms. They would be mowed down, with out the help of insiders. And such movements would have to be coordinated in like scenarios country wide. No easy tasks. Probably literally impossible to achieve.
This country has become slaves to a cadre of evil men under a few real sick dudes. No different then in China or say North Korea, or pre-invasion Iraq.
21 posted on 06/16/2007 8:25:21 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle
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To: FARS

Why should they turn?

How about dignity pride honor self respect.... add ‘em on to that list ....


22 posted on 06/16/2007 8:30:51 PM PDT by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
The Iranians have accused the US of fomenting revolution, and the US has not exactly denied it.

Whatever we're spending, double it!

23 posted on 06/16/2007 8:33:01 PM PDT by airborne (Airborne - Ranger - Vietnam veteran! Duncan Hunter for President!)
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To: FARS

I seldom respond to your pings, but I naver fail to make a point of reading them. Always most interesting, insightful..........and possibly inciteful, as they should be.

Thanks for keeping me on your “ping list”.


24 posted on 06/16/2007 8:52:48 PM PDT by Rushmore Rocks
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

God Bless the truly decent - and there are many - people of Iran who at the end of this thing will be shouting the word, “America!” for an entirely different reason than others, and... even they had of late.


25 posted on 06/16/2007 9:54:50 PM PDT by onedoug
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To: Rushmore Rocks

inciteful is perceptive of you. I report but you decide :-))

cheers


26 posted on 06/16/2007 11:37:42 PM PDT by FARS
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To: Marine_Uncle; All

“Regular army” has been disarmed for the most part by the vastly better equipped and organized paramoilitary IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) whose commanders, colleagues of ahmadiNutjob, hold almost every iportant post in the country down to mid-level ranks.

The IRGC does not trust the regular forces whose allegiance is nore to the old guard Mullahs not the suicidal hojateih ones in charge right now.

There are close to 400,000 IRGC and Suppression Bassiji forrces members. For anything serious to ahppen in Iran these would habe to be comber out of existence and then the peoplel would rise up.


27 posted on 06/16/2007 11:44:37 PM PDT by FARS
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To: TomasUSMC

Those are YOUR mindsets, without mnuch room in the battered, smashed, crushed psyche of the oppressed Iranains who are trying not to starve.Work but as often as not do not get paid for months at a time and wonder howthey will feed their families.

short of joining the huge numbers delving into trash dumpos.

And in fear of joining the HALF MILLION homeless children living in the streets just in Tehran. And the tens of thousands of women also forced to live on the streets as they can neither fin dwork, have been thrown out by irate husbans to fend for theselves and have no social safety network like we do in the West.

Easy to offer high sounding attributes when you do not face daily hunger, misery and stress that to a degree not even our troops face. Or if they do they have some training and there is an evac copter to be found with some med attention.

I understand your high minded appproach but you are not even on the same planet as these people.

Not because they did not once have honor and a sense of pride but because their living daylights have been knocked systematically out of them for the last 25 years.

I don’t know how tough you are but I wonder if you could take that and still be who you are today. I doubt if I could and I have been there and done that and barely survived.

Easy to to quarterback when you are not being burned up in the fire. Emotional and often real flames of torture.

cheers,

This error of equating what goes on in your mind within your environment (even in Iraq) does not tally with reality of the mindsets and psyche of those who have no energy or reserve left for high falluting


28 posted on 06/16/2007 11:55:00 PM PDT by FARS
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To: FARS; Al

There was a former Iranian judge and author, a woman, now living in exile, whose name I forget, who wrote in an article I read shortly after the US Military occupied Bagdad.

In the article, she wrote about being in a coffee shop in Tehran watching the images on the television of American marines patrolling the streets of Bagdad.

She wrote of watching women, unaccompanied by male relatives, clad in western attire, walking by the Marines, who bowed respectfully or tipped their helmets.

She wrote that she wished that she could see American Marines on the streets of Tehran.


29 posted on 06/17/2007 3:25:16 AM PDT by Westbrook (Having more children does not divide your love, it multiplies it!)
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To: blam

bttt


30 posted on 06/17/2007 3:39:01 AM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: FARS

Thank you for the ping to this very well written and I believe very accurate analysis of the Iranian situation on the ground.


31 posted on 06/17/2007 5:02:23 AM PDT by snowsislander
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To: FARS
There are close to 400,000 IRGC and Suppression Bassiji forrces members. For anything serious to ahppen in Iran these would habe to be comber out of existence and then the peoplel would rise up.

It will probably need to get a lot worse before a solution is possible. How much worse? Bad enough that 80% or more of the people are fed up with Islam entirely, and given an opportunity would kill every cleric and burn all the Qurans in a huge bonfire. And for decades afterward, anybody coming into the country spouting Da'wa (call to Islam) would be killed

Anything less than that, and you would be trading one Islamic republic for another within a few years

32 posted on 06/17/2007 6:09:36 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor (Open Season rocks http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymLJz3N8ayI)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

33 posted on 06/17/2007 6:13:40 AM PDT by Eye of Unk
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To: SauronOfMordor

and you would be trading one Islamic republic for another within a few years


Which I’m afraid is the biggest error we are making in Iraq.


34 posted on 06/17/2007 9:04:25 AM PDT by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: FARS

Understand your comments regarding regular army verse the RG. This country is in lock down no different then what the Soviets,Chinese,NK have/had. Unlike Hollywood scripts, one simply does not march in and put a bullet into a dictators head and solve the problem that exists in Iran. The Mullahs and their adherants are simply to well established.


35 posted on 06/17/2007 10:46:46 AM PDT by Marine_Uncle
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To: SauronOfMordor; All; 1035rep; 1curiousmind; 4woodenboats; 5Madman2; 68skylark; AdmSmith; ...

AntiMullah (Alan and I) are actually working on something like that. By broadcasting from a Zoroastrian Internet TV that we hope will soon go to satellite again, we are:

1. Aiming the overthrow the Mullahs through women.

2. Promoting pre-Islamic conditions when men and women had equality and there were two women who became Empresses / Queens and ruled the nation.

Part of this is to remove Islam as part of any Constitutions. And basically adopt the Zorostrian three tenets (not the religion) of “Good Thoughts”, “Good Words”, “Good Deeds” as the national spiritual philosophy.

And teach voluntary religion in schools as an extra-curricular course. Attendance in multi-religion classes not obligatory but earning points toward graduations (at all levels).

Hoped for result is the dilution of Islam to where by comparison based on knowledge it no longers holds much specific or obligatory attraction.

However, there would be total freedom to practice what you want - in private life.

Very premature, as you may say, but our tiny think tank (we are after all experts to a great degree) believes we need to sort out ways and means now and create a template or several, on which to gradually launch an overthrow and try to channel the chaos that ensues.

As you say, once freed by “eradication” of the Revolutionary Guard military capabilites, the people will jump in.

So will the MEK, so will Putin, so will China, so will a gaggle of idealogues, all at odds with each other with mostly Socialist philosophies and external political support.

And external Al Qaeda type of terrorism.

And greedy business and oil conglomerates.

The late Shah once said that his having to deal with a situation somewhat similar to this in those days deserved an Oscar for acting far beyond roles of those in movies. He had to juggle a myriad conflicting imperatives and conflicting values and try to stay in place. And alive. And lead the country into a modern age.

Anyway, if anyone has suggestions along these lines, please Email us at AntiMullah “antimullah@hotmail.com” since we are open to learn from others, too, not just our own in depth practical experience.

Basic aim, start a new revolution via women.

Simplistically, it worked against us, we can make it work for us. And try to arrange to minimize the ensuing chaos without becoming suppressors and murderers ourselves.

Beyond the point of “Normal”, short-term, post-revolution law and order. Martial law etc.

Keep in mind that “democracy” that we believe in here in the USA is already somewhat different from democracy even in Europe and not necessarily the best template for a Middle East country.

For example, the total gridlock and hatred that has appeared in our own Congress and Senate, which prevents what’s good for our nation from being legislated was also faced by the late Shah.

There were two main political parties: Iran Novin (which won elections for 13-years under Premier Hoveyda). The opposition Mardom party, consisting of some very capable, educated people was always the minority opposition and as such they could never fill top govt. positions.

Needing far more good “managers” than were available, the late Shah finally dissolved the two parties, created a Rastakhiz party and designated it to have a left wing and a right wing of people formerly in Novin and Mardom.

Minorities like Christians, Jews, Zoroastrians, Assyrians. Armenians etc., did however have seats reserved for them in parliament and senate. Not perfect but it was working.

Except for the banned Tudeh (Communist) party constantly used by the Soviets to try to overthrow the monarchy and take over the country to reach the warm waters of the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf.

Thus he could now use every available person in the country to help run it. Not OUR form of democracy and not something we could put in place without the Shah’s type of power.

Democracy in Iran (and what should perhaps have been considered in Iraq) does not need to be a direct prorated representation at the outset. As is ours.

Remember the political sophistication of the Iranian populace to ours or that of Europe is so different as to be skewed beyond practical implementation of what WE call democracy.

This comment would be met with loud protest and derision from the more educated Iranians living abroad, who also judge everyone according to themselves, not according to a less pleasant reality. And perhaps even over-estimating their own prowess.

Thus you have to create a tailor made “semi-democracy” at the outset, create a fairly decent Constitution, based on pragmatic rather than idealistic concepts and build in the ability to make Amendments as we have in the USA.

Anyway, do please send us suggestions based on a practical, pragmatic mindset not simply that of forcing our version onto people who cannot carry it out even if it appeals to some of them.They are mostly under 30-years old - 65% of them - so highly idealistic but not full of real experience of life, government or the wrold at large to temper the idealism.


36 posted on 06/17/2007 12:48:22 PM PDT by FARS
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To: FARS

I thoroughly admire and support your hard work. Keep it up and THANK YOU from a grateful American. This takes a lot of courage and commitment and you are demonstrating that in spades.


37 posted on 06/17/2007 1:38:39 PM PDT by Allegra (Socks.)
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To: blam

Good post blam.
I agree but am not sure ours will nor should be peaceful.


38 posted on 06/17/2007 1:59:57 PM PDT by Joe Boucher
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To: FARS
Gee, judging from your response, and its firm determination that Iranians are too burned out to resist:
you're telling us that the only answer would be carpet bombing.
39 posted on 06/17/2007 3:21:08 PM PDT by norton
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Here we go again.....


40 posted on 06/17/2007 3:22:57 PM PDT by wtc911 ("How you gonna get back down that hill?")
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