It will probably need to get a lot worse before a solution is possible. How much worse? Bad enough that 80% or more of the people are fed up with Islam entirely, and given an opportunity would kill every cleric and burn all the Qurans in a huge bonfire. And for decades afterward, anybody coming into the country spouting Da'wa (call to Islam) would be killed
Anything less than that, and you would be trading one Islamic republic for another within a few years
and you would be trading one Islamic republic for another within a few years
AntiMullah (Alan and I) are actually working on something like that. By broadcasting from a Zoroastrian Internet TV that we hope will soon go to satellite again, we are:
1. Aiming the overthrow the Mullahs through women.
2. Promoting pre-Islamic conditions when men and women had equality and there were two women who became Empresses / Queens and ruled the nation.
Part of this is to remove Islam as part of any Constitutions. And basically adopt the Zorostrian three tenets (not the religion) of “Good Thoughts”, “Good Words”, “Good Deeds” as the national spiritual philosophy.
And teach voluntary religion in schools as an extra-curricular course. Attendance in multi-religion classes not obligatory but earning points toward graduations (at all levels).
Hoped for result is the dilution of Islam to where by comparison based on knowledge it no longers holds much specific or obligatory attraction.
However, there would be total freedom to practice what you want - in private life.
Very premature, as you may say, but our tiny think tank (we are after all experts to a great degree) believes we need to sort out ways and means now and create a template or several, on which to gradually launch an overthrow and try to channel the chaos that ensues.
As you say, once freed by “eradication” of the Revolutionary Guard military capabilites, the people will jump in.
So will the MEK, so will Putin, so will China, so will a gaggle of idealogues, all at odds with each other with mostly Socialist philosophies and external political support.
And external Al Qaeda type of terrorism.
And greedy business and oil conglomerates.
The late Shah once said that his having to deal with a situation somewhat similar to this in those days deserved an Oscar for acting far beyond roles of those in movies. He had to juggle a myriad conflicting imperatives and conflicting values and try to stay in place. And alive. And lead the country into a modern age.
Anyway, if anyone has suggestions along these lines, please Email us at AntiMullah “antimullah@hotmail.com” since we are open to learn from others, too, not just our own in depth practical experience.
Basic aim, start a new revolution via women.
Simplistically, it worked against us, we can make it work for us. And try to arrange to minimize the ensuing chaos without becoming suppressors and murderers ourselves.
Beyond the point of “Normal”, short-term, post-revolution law and order. Martial law etc.
Keep in mind that “democracy” that we believe in here in the USA is already somewhat different from democracy even in Europe and not necessarily the best template for a Middle East country.
For example, the total gridlock and hatred that has appeared in our own Congress and Senate, which prevents what’s good for our nation from being legislated was also faced by the late Shah.
There were two main political parties: Iran Novin (which won elections for 13-years under Premier Hoveyda). The opposition Mardom party, consisting of some very capable, educated people was always the minority opposition and as such they could never fill top govt. positions.
Needing far more good “managers” than were available, the late Shah finally dissolved the two parties, created a Rastakhiz party and designated it to have a left wing and a right wing of people formerly in Novin and Mardom.
Minorities like Christians, Jews, Zoroastrians, Assyrians. Armenians etc., did however have seats reserved for them in parliament and senate. Not perfect but it was working.
Except for the banned Tudeh (Communist) party constantly used by the Soviets to try to overthrow the monarchy and take over the country to reach the warm waters of the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf.
Thus he could now use every available person in the country to help run it. Not OUR form of democracy and not something we could put in place without the Shah’s type of power.
Democracy in Iran (and what should perhaps have been considered in Iraq) does not need to be a direct prorated representation at the outset. As is ours.
Remember the political sophistication of the Iranian populace to ours or that of Europe is so different as to be skewed beyond practical implementation of what WE call democracy.
This comment would be met with loud protest and derision from the more educated Iranians living abroad, who also judge everyone according to themselves, not according to a less pleasant reality. And perhaps even over-estimating their own prowess.
Thus you have to create a tailor made “semi-democracy” at the outset, create a fairly decent Constitution, based on pragmatic rather than idealistic concepts and build in the ability to make Amendments as we have in the USA.
Anyway, do please send us suggestions based on a practical, pragmatic mindset not simply that of forcing our version onto people who cannot carry it out even if it appeals to some of them.They are mostly under 30-years old - 65% of them - so highly idealistic but not full of real experience of life, government or the wrold at large to temper the idealism.