Posted on 06/11/2007 9:23:15 PM PDT by dangus
The Los Angeles Times article about the Bloomberg poll it sponsored highlighted the fact that Fred Thompson is only six points behind Rudy Giuliani in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. For those watching the nomination polls, that's encouraging but hardly shocking. But many other poll results are downright surprising.
For instance, the LA Times treats Republican-leaning independents as Republican primary voters, as if the rest of the nation followed California's relatively unique system of open primaries. But Giuliani leads among independents, 31-17. The category “Conservative Republicans” seems to track very closely to an estimate of the results of removing these independents from the pool of “Republican Primary Voters.” And Fred Thompson is leading among those voters, 26-24.
The real shocker from the poll is for John McCain. Late last year, McCain polled consistently in the range of 26-30%, good enough for 1st or 2nd place. He scored as high as 30% as late as January according to Time (when he led Giuliani, 30-26%), and as late as March according to ARG. The LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows McCain getting only 12% of the vote, even including “leaners.” On the other hand, a whopping 22% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would never vote for McCain.
Mitt Romney mustn't be pleased with only 10%, but he tends to score higher in polls that report only the most politically active respondents.
The poll results must also please Gingrich. He only gets 9% of the responses, but he's declared he's not even likely to run. What must be pleasing pleasing is that only 9% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would definitely not vote for him. And 46% of Americans approve of the job Gingrich, once a bete noir of politics, did as Speaker, while only 34% disapproved. In comparison, only 36% approve of Nancy Pelosi's performance, while 39% disapprove, 23% strongly so.
Republicans must take heart in this: Only 27% approve of the new Congress' performance, while 65% disapprove.
On the Democratic side, Hillary seems unstoppable. Among Democrats, she gets 40%, compared to Obama's 21%, Gore's 18%, Edward's 10%, Biden's 4% and Richardson's 1%. (Obama does better when Independents are included.
That's great news for Republicans, since she gets beaten by Giuliani (49-39), McCain (45-41), and even Romney (43-41), who suffers badly due to poor name recognition against all other candidates. McCain beats Edwards, 45-40, but Giuliani loses, 46-43, and Romney gets blown away, 46-32.
Source: http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2007-06/30445335.pdf
As the mainstream media pooh pooh's Fred, Fred is going to take control of the nomination. The MSM does not even know what is going to hit them.
I find it hard to believe that Edwards beats Giuliani and Romney.
Fewer negatives. That'll be fixed before the election. Edwards vs Romney would be slick vs slick.
Ping! You’re gonna love this one!
I SO want to see the Silky Pony try to beat the Tennessee War Horse.
The key question is, where is Hillary gonna be from during the general election? The South (Arkansas),
the North (New York), or the Midwest (Illinois).
“I find it hard to believe that Edwards beats Giuliani and Romney.”
The Republican “brand” is badly damaged. Some rightly and some wrongly.
It is burdened by unpopular Iraq situation, corrpution, government ineptness, etc. I’m sure immigration plays a role, too.
GWB is unpopular, which extends to all Republicans. His situation is further damaged by his communication weaknesses.
He has done a lousy job of impacting opinion about the positives—economy, our safety from further islamic attacks, etc.
For GWB the good news is he got a 2nd term. The other news is he squandered it much like his Dad.
You’re exactly right . We could put up the best candidate ever, but when Bush gets done pushing the party over the cliff with this immigration bill, it won’t matter who we put up. The base will most assuredly sit it out after this immigration mess, and it will trickle down to the congessional elections as well . We are in for some rough times....
Just say NO to Amnesty!! Keep calling!! It’s NOT OVER!!
U.S. Senate switchboard: (202) 224-3121
U.S. House switchboard: (202) 225-3121
White House comments: (202) 456-1111
Find your House Rep.: http://www.house.gov/writerep
Find your US Senators: http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
We won’t let up on this . This is a wake up call that some Republicans can count on being defeated in their primaries . RINO PURGE V.2 !
“As the mainstream media pooh pooh’s Fred, Fred is going to take control of the nomination. The MSM does not even know what is going to hit them.”
Good...the less they know, the better.
Stealth Fred.
If they do that then they are STOOPID and they deserve the socialism they'll get from Her Heinous and the Democrat Congress, not to mention the ultra-libs like Lawrence Tribe who will finally have the chance to make it to the Supremes.
We are in for some rough times....
Indeed
Well i’ve never been one for sitting it out , but that’s where we’re headed .
Our only remedy is a RINO PURGE V.2 We need to make sure we have real Conservatives running in the ‘08 elections by voting out these current sellouts in the primaries . We will also need a movement Conservative heading up the ticket . That is our only recipe for success as long as we can beat this immigration bill back again .
Wherever Bill decides to plant his roots?
I doubt the base will stay home in a wide open election. Too much is at stake.
I’ve always been quite motivated and very active , but I must say , i’ve never felt so out of touch with the party as I do now. I’ve never seen the party so actively fight the base as they are doing now . It’s very disturbing.
I worked liked crazy in the last election . I could easily see that many of the grassroots folks were sitting it out and the election results confirmed that fact.
If we don’t turnout in the primaries to defeat these RINO’s in ‘08 , than I don’t think we stand a chance in the general election regarding the congressional races .
Amen. I am done voting for the lesser of two evils. No more RINOs.
Heh.
A quick summary:
Fred Thompson is going to win this thing
John McCain is done. His campaign will be over by September
Rudy Giuliani will soldier on with all his money until after the big primaries in January
Mitt Romney is going to roll the dice and gamble for a Donk victory, and figure to run in 2012
The Donks are going to be so unpopular by 2008 that Fred Thompson will win the White House
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