Posted on 05/26/2007 9:17:55 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Yonhap News
2007.05.27 09:00
Choi Sun-young and Chang Yong-hoon = Recently in N. Korea, signs of preparation for post-Kim Jong-il era are showing up, prompting outsiders’ attention.
Two sons born from Kim Jong-il and his third wife Ko Yong-hee(deceased on May, 2004), Jung-chol(age:26,) and Jung-un(age: 23), are reportedly accompanying Kim Jong-il and showing up at various public events such as visit to military units.
The two sons used to frequently accompany Kim Jong-il’s visits to military units while their mother was still alive, but after her death, it was known to have stopped.
A source on N. Korea on (May) 27th said, “Kim Jong-il has not chosen his successor, but we believe that he has one of the two in mind. He must be evaluating them to see who is more suitable while bringing them around during his visits to military units.” . In particular, the second son Jung-chol reportedly studied military sciences such as ‘Military Leadership of Juche’ from 2001 to last April at a special class of Kim Il-sung Military University, which is educating high-level military officers while the third son, Jung-un also did from 2002 to last April.
While alive, their mother strongly pushed for the study at Kim Il-sung Military University, asserting that her sons should inherit Kim Jong-il’s Military First Policy. As a result, a special class was reportedly set up exclusively for them.
Other sources on N. Korea said, “The two sons presented a military doctrine realizing ‘Military Leadership of Juche’ at a public event where Kim Jong-il was present. It drew applauses from Kim Jong-il.”
Kim Jong-il once put the resolution of succession problem on hold, fearing that it will turn him into a lame-duck, issuing stern instruction to ban any discussion on the matter on Dec., 2005. It appears that he brought up succession issue again, taking his sons along at public events, because his health is deteriorating recently.
This year, Kim Jong-il showed up at 23 public events until May 27th, which is nearly half the number of 42 events during the same period last year.
He has been paying careful attention to his health, but his diabetes, heart and liver problem are getting worse these days, it is said.
Some analysts speculate that Fidel Castro’s situation might have prompted Kim to attend to succession problem again. Cuba maintains the similar political system as N. Korea, and Castro had surgery due to intestinal bleeding, but his recovery is slow. His power was transferred to his brother Raul Castro
It is expected that the resurfacing of succession issue could trigger intense power struggle in N. Korea.
Currently, Jung-chol and Jung-un are ahead in the game, accompanying Kim Jong-il at public events, but their half-brother Jong-nam(age:36,) born from Kim Jong-il and late Sung Hye-rim, and Kim’s fourth wife and current first lady Kim Ok could both emerge rapidly as their competitors
Especially the vestige of Confucianism remains in N. Korea. Succession by the eldest son could be still a preferred way. In that sense, the tradition favors Kim Jong-nam.
Furthermore, Kim Jong-nam is reform-minded, favoring open door policy, and maintains a good relationship with China, N. Korea’s chief sponsor, all of which would make Jong-nam a thorn in the eyes of Jung-chol and Jung-un.
Kim Jong-nam survived an assassination attempt by the faction of Jung-chol and Jung-un while visiting Austria on Nov., 2004. He escaped with the help of Austrian intelligence.
Cho Myung-chol, a researcher at KIEP, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, and a former professor of Kim Il-sung University said, “Jung-chol or Jung-un could not be a real successor unless they physically eliminate (the eldest son) Kim Jong-nam.”
Some even claim that death of Kim Yong-soon, a confidante of Ko Yong-hee, in a traffic accident in 2003, was actually a hit by Kim Jong-nam’s people inside N. Korea.
It is apparently unavoidable that the intense power struggle between Kim Jong-il and his rival and half-brother Kim Pyong-il, current N. Korean Ambassador to Poland, while Kim Jong-il was trying to succeed Kim Il-sung, is to be played out again for succession to the third generation leader.
In addition, Kim Ok, at a relatively young age of 43, who is also a mid-level official at State Defense Commission and deeply involved in Kim Jong-il’s political matters, is another variable which cannot be ignored in the succession struggle.
Kim Ok is known to have influenced Kim Jong-il behind the scene to postpone the naming of the successor. She is reportedly building her power base by putting her confidante on important posts, for fear that she may be pushed to the fringe of power once Kim’s successor is named and establishes his power.
The sources predicted, “It is quite possible that there would be a 3-way power struggle among the eldest brother Jung-nam, (the remaining) brothers of Jung-chol and Jung-un, and young new wife Kim OK. Those in the inner circle of power will have to choose their side, and it could hasten the process of Kim Jong-il turning into a lame-duck.”
Ping!
BTTT
Got a question....
What happens if NK goes down? Meaning drops into Chaos? Will china go into control the throng of people that would be streaming out of that country?
Digesting all this. :)
China will try. They have the entire corps dedicated to that task. They are setting up barbed wired fence with T-shaped pillars) on their border with N. Korea. They are cracking down hard on any N. Koreans wandering in without papers.
Will it be enough? Depends on how chaotic things inside N. Korea would become.
There’s another question:
Which direction will the throngs be streaming?
North?
Or south? :)
I think Kim OK has the best name.
To English-speaking people, it is.:-)
NK will not go down. Once the old dude dies...there will be an immedate announcement of one of his sons now in charge and the grand do-dah funeral will then be scheduled with two million participants. This is a country on automatic.
Two young men on the right side are Kim Jong-nam(the eldest) and Kim Jung-chol(the second.) Kim Jung-un's photo is not available.
Kim Jong-il's fourth wife Kim Ok (a close-up photo on the right)
There is always a first.:-)
Whoa I didn’t know Chia Pet marry this lady I thought he was shackle up with her Tiger
Question here what type of woman would have marry Chia Pet LOL!
You are right. They are not legally married.:-)
So they living what they say back in da day IN SIN ROFL
They will leave us a great movie script material for a future Hollywood blockbuster.
They milked Hitler's Germany for two decades. They might do the same for Kim Jong-il's N. Korea.
Hey we be goofing on Chia Pet when he finally kick it and sucession line when he finally kick it
I sense another team america script LOL!
A remake of The Eagle’s Nest that is located in the DPRK?
Well, he has not just one but more than two dozen bunkers and villas. Going through all of them, and taking out enemies would make exciting movies.
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