Posted on 04/22/2007 10:02:03 AM PDT by Cincinna
This election is really good news. Keeping my fingers crossed for Sarko in the runoff. Thanks for the ping.
Right wing voters would never vote for Roayl...they will vote for Sako or stay home....The fight will be over the cwntrist Bayrou voters
FRANCE - 7:05pm French time, according to votes already cast :
(19h05)
Sarkozy 29,15%
Royal 26,2%
Bayrou 18,6%
Le Pen 10,8%
Besancenot 4,7%
Source: http://www.20min.ch/ro/news/monde/story/28173691
All polls have shown that Sarko picks up about half of Bayrou’s vote, and almost all of le Pen’s. Probably those of Villiers and Nihous as well.
Royal at 26%, even if she captured every single vote on the Left, would not get the 50.1% necessary to win.
That is amazing, so we could very well see a blowout of Royal in May, a real landslide if those polls are correct that is.
Cool, France politics have been fractious for quite sometime now.
Polls have shown Bayrou voters splitting evenly between the two.
Many in Bayrou’s center right party UDF have supported Sarko. Like former president Valery Giscard d’Estaing.
Can’t imagine the Frog commies voting for someone who makes sense.
Pray for W and Our Troops
Time to worry about security. Remember Pim Fortuyn?
I will be in Paris on election Sunday....I think it will be quite the carnival atmosphere and hopefully I can find a Sarko pin to wear.
Interesting: LCI just showed the scene outside where Sarkozy is going to watch the results and it was jam packed with young people rooting for Sarko.
There may be hope for France yet.
Nicolas Sarkozy is the best bet..,hope he wins.
Is there a breakdown of votes by region?
Ah, those crazy Frenchies. Always doing somethng kinky.
There will be.
The French are using electronic voting machines for the first time, so the real vote will come in relatively rapidly.
.....Will France make an abrupt right turn, ....
The winner will neeed 50%. Skarkopzy + le Penn = 30 + 15= 45
That was enough for America to elect bill Clinton, but will it be enough to assure a win in France?
“Sarkozy will not be able to mop up some of Le Pen’s or Bayrou’s supporters.”
Le Pen’s supporters will all go for Sarkozy. He’s a law-and-order, bust-heads kind of guy. Bayrou’s votes will split.
Interesting that Le Pen only picked up 11% of the vote. Sarkozy’s stances pulled the air out of the far right into his own camp. And he’s talked to and of Le Pen like a human being, so the FN will come out for Sarkozy.
Law and order will be restored in France. This will make France a better place to live.
It is a good result.
Only some places are using electronic voting systems. Not all of France.
Congratulations on a good 1st Round.
Here is my collection of final pre-election polls:
Ipsos/SFR/Le Point/Apr 20:
1st round: Sarko 30, Royal 23.5 (Sarko by 6.5%)
2nd round: Sarko 53.5, Royal 46.5 (Sarko by 7%)
CSA/Le Parisien/Apr 20
1st round: Sarko 26.5, Royal 25.5 (Sarko by 1%)
2nd round: Sarko 50, Royal 50 (tie)
Ifop/Fiducial/Apr 19
1st round: Sarko 28, Royal 22.5 (Sarko by 3.5%)
2nd round: Sarko 51, Royal 49 (Sarko by 2%)
TNS/Sofres/Unilog/Apr 19
1st round: Sarko 28, Royal 24 (Sarko by 4%)
2nd round: Sarko 53, Royal 47 (Sarko by 6%)
BVA/Orange/Apr 17
1st round: Sarko 29, Royal 25 (Sarko by 4%)
2nd round: Sarko 53, Royal 47 (Sarko by 6%)
Louis-Harris/RMC/Apr 15
1st round: Sarko 27, Royal 23 (Sarko by 4%)
2nd round: Sarko 51, Royal 49 (Sarko by 2%)
In every poll, the margin between Sarko and Royal for the 2nd round is roughly the same as for the 1st round. (Polling companies may have their biases but I’d expect them to be biased in the same way for both rounds.) The third party vote is splitting almost exactly 50-50.
If Sarko leads in the actual 1st round results by 5%, we’re looking at 5% or so lead for the second round. Looks good but the campaigning in the two weeks until the runoff is still important...
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