Poll: Which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president?

Washington Post ^ | April 20, 2007 | Washington Post-ABC News Poll

[Cincinatus' Wife]

43. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Regardless of who you yourself support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president?

------------------------- 4/15/07 2/25/07
Rudy Giuliani ---------42 ------- 44
John McCain ---------16 -------- 26
Mitt Romney ------------7 ------- 3
Newt Gingrich -----------3 ------- 2
Fred Thompson ----------3 ------- NA
Tommy Thompson ------1 ------- 1
Duncan Hunter ----------1 ------- 0
Chuck Hagel ------------* ------- 0
George Pataki -----------* ------- 1
Sam Brownback --------* ------- *
Tom Tancredo ----------* ------- 0
Other (vol.) --------------1 ------- 3
No opinion ------------25 ------- 17

[Cincinatus' Wife]

True enough.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Until he announces he is running, even I won’t say I think he’s going to win the nomination. I think he COULD win the nomination if he runs, but I’m not a fortune-teller, and I can’t predict what another man will choose.

Remember, this is the question of which candidate do you THINK WILL WIN.

That’s also why, as others noted, that 25% had “no opinion”. Those are the smart 25%. How can we know who is going to win? That’s predicting the future.

[flashbunny]

“Which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president?” - one of the most worthless poll questions ever.

[CharlesWayneCT]

They are the smart 25%, who say that have no idea who WILL win. That’s different from who they WANT to win.

I wonder when the last time was that the front-runner didn’t have at least 50% of the respondents believing they would win. It looks like, other than those who actually would vote for Rudy, few others think he will win.

[showme_the_Glory]

Good to see that 25% hasn’t bought into all the early Rudey hype. Minds are changing and it won’t be good for NY liberals.

[Red Badger]

Which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president?.....the one with the most votes.........

[CindyDawg]

Well darn. I don’t read the post or watch the station so I’m not represented. Yall just add a vote for Duncan , ok?

[Badeye]

Over the years of posting in various political forums I’ve found its helpful to remind myself I’m a ‘political junkie’.

Most in these forums are, and admit it.

But we tend to forget the vast majority of voters aren’t ‘political junkies’ and hence put to much emphasis on ‘25% not having an opinion’ because to ‘us’ thats impossible, no matter when the election is.

[CindyDawg]

Well darn. I don’t read the post or watch the station so I’m not represented. Yall just add a vote for Duncan , ok?

[Cincinatus' Wife]

LOL

Okay.

[Buck W.]

“With a list this long and varied, how is that 25 percent still have “no opinion”?”

Does it take longer to make up your mind if the ice cream shop has 2 flavors or 20 flavors?

[SF Republican]

With a list this long and varied, how is that 25 percent still have “no opinion”? - Personally I want to wait and see some debates, some pressing the flesh - we got lots of time. There is snow in Iowa and there will be spring, summer, fall and winter before a single vote is cast.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Personally I want to wait and see some debates, some pressing the flesh....

I can't wait to see the debates.

[CBart95]

Answer: Simple. The so-called choices are schlubs in suits.

There’s not a President in even a dozen of this type of stooge.

[jackieaxe]

I’m voting for Ron Paul but think its Mitt in the end. I don’t participate in polls like this that are used to exclude diversity of opinion when it comes to deciding who gets in the TV debates.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Rudy Giuliani Tops All Others in New Jersey Poll (4-20-07)

New Jersey hasn’t supported a Republican for president for nearly 20 years, but a new poll released Thursday shows former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leading all presidential challengers in New Jersey.

The Quinnipiac University poll found the Republican with similar leads over the three leading Democratic presidential candidates.

Giuliani leads New York Sen. Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent, the poll found. He leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 48 percent to 38 percent, and 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards 48 percent to 41 percent.

New Jersey hasn’t supported a Republican for president since 1988.

“It makes no difference who the Democrats put up — Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or John Edwards — former Mayor Giuliani continues to knock out all challengers in the New Jersey presidential race,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute......

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2007/4/20/122035.shtml?s=ic

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Ron Paul can’t win but I respect your support of him.

[WKB]

(IMHO, libs fear Fred.)

FDT= Fearful Democrats Trembling (and the rudiebots)

[jackieaxe]

Thanks, and I will be voting for Mitt in the end.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Interestingly, it’s been proven to be the most predictive. You filter out much of the personal bias.