Second national poll confirms Fred Thompson's rising fortunes (Rudy 26%, McCain 16%, Thompson 14%)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 4/3/07

[LdSentinal]

The addition of former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson (R) to the list of candidates shakes up the race for the GOP Presidential nomination.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top, but his support dips below the 30% mark for the first time in seven weeks. With Thompson in the mix, Giuliani’s support tumbles to 26%, down nine points from a week ago. That’s the lowest level of support measured for Giuliani in any Rasmussen Reports poll this year.

Support for Arizona Senator John McCain remains steady at 16%, but McCain’s hold on second place is threatened by Thompson. The movie star turned Senator turned TV star weighs in with 14% support among those likely to vote in a GOP primary. Among Very Conservative voters, Giuliani attracts 20% support followed closely by Thompson at 19%, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 18% and McCain at 14%.

[Peach]

Ditto that, aligncare.

[Peach]

Sure. And I’m Queen Elizabeth.

[Peach]

Gosh, if you people have to lie about the interview and whether they were softball questions, I guess Rudy did even better than I thought he did.

[Ultra Sonic 007]

You haven't read up on his words, have you?

Rudy Defends his gun lawsuit as Mayor (Video)
Summary of Rudy on Gun Control by Gun Owners of America
Rudy Giuliani: Gun manufacturers knowingly calculate sales to illegal market
As ’08 Candidate, Giuliani Strikes a New Tone on Guns
Citizens Crime Comission (Rudy Giuliani on Guns)

Excerpt from the last link:

"And even as we grieve for those who lost their lives, and our hearts and prayers go out to the victims and their loved ones, we may be able to find some sort of meaning in this tragedy by using it as a catalyst to revive national gun control efforts."

Rudy's gun control stance is downright scary. I leave you with this photo.

[FredHunter08]

“Mr. Giuliani has openly stated his understanding of Second Amendment rights as protecting individual RKBA.”

He has not. He just mentioned “hunting”.

“I’ve never heard him say he has intentions to disarm us. Any citation?”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/799060.stm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs5DxwzEXHQ

[Mobile Vulgus]

Here’s the problem I have with Fred Thompson. He has NO organization!

People keep comparing him to Reagan... well, he is Reagan-like, but Reagan spent about 10 years creating a nation wide organization of boosters and associates to push his candidacy well before the 1980 contest against Carter. Thompson has nothing but the good vibe and favorable press.

This does not bode well for him. He has no way to launch his candidacy, not organization to take up his banner.

[Ultra Sonic 007]

Forgot one more.

Law and Order and Guns.

Giuliani’s rationalizing of New York City’s suit against the gun makers also tells something about his views. In justifying the lawsuit, Giuliani claimed that the gun makers were “deliberately manufacturing many more firearms than can be bought for legitimate purposes of hunting and law enforcement.”

No RKBA to be found.

[The Pack Knight]

I didn’t say that Thompson was taking votes away from McCain.

I said he’s taking votes away from other candidates in the hopes that his friend’s (McCaniac) fortunes/polls rise.

That still makes no sense. If he runs, McCain loses because Thompson alone will beat him. If he doesn't run and instead waits to endorse McCain, does anyone really believe all those Thompson votes are actually going to go to McCain? Fred's too old a political dog to think that'll work. They'll most likely split back between Rudy and Romney.

The only way McCain is served by the Thompson buzz is that it neutralizes Romney, who has been primarily targeting McCain. Romney has enough money and support that he isn't going anywhere, though, and once (hypothetically speaking) it's clear Thompson isn't running, he'll be right back in it.

Even if the original plan was for Thompson to serve as a stalking horse, the result only highlights McCain's weakness. McCain has already destroyed his own candidacy by "eating alone", to use some mob speak, and there's nothing Thompson can do to revive it. He's very popular, but he's a long way from being influential enough to cleanse the bad blood between McCain and the GOP. There's a big difference between wanting to vote for someone and wanting to vote for whomever that person tells you to. Fred Thompson is smart enough to see this.

[stephenjohnbanker]

The naievete amongst the Rudybots knows no bounds.

[The Pack Knight]

Here’s the problem I have with Fred Thompson. He has NO organization!

All good points, and I agree that his campaign, if he has one, will go nowhere without an organization. If organization is everything, Giuliani will run away with the nomination.

The "undeclared candidate" who DOES have an organization is, of course, Newt Gingrich. His pseudo-candidacy also points out the limitations of "organization", however. None of the declared candidates has a stronger conservative message or has been as effective in conveying their message. However, even the deluge of good policy ideas coming from the Gingrich camp has been mostly ineffective in covering his personal negatives. That's because organization and message aren't everything. For examples, see Dean, Howard and Robertson, Pat.

Thompson has mainstream name recognition to draw upon, and, until he runs, a popular platform on the Paul Harvey show to communicate with voters. He's palatable with Republicans of every stripe, which is more than can be said of the other candidates. And, while all of us wish this didn't matter, he "looks Presidential", and that really does carry weight. The nomination process is dominated by primaries, including many open ones. Having boosters is good, but in the end, the citizen (hopefully) in the voting booth is going to pick who he or she likes best, regardless of who ran the most ads or knocked on the most doors.

If Fred Thompson wants to be President, he will, of course, have to build a campaign. There's still plenty of time, however, especially considering the weakness of the field of candidates. Also, as a converse to the main tangent this thread has taken, McCain has organization. If he were to see the writing on the wall....

Disclaimer: My gag tagline notwithstanding, I'm still a Gingrich/Bolton supporter, for the time being.

[papasmurf]

"Here’s the problem I have with Fred Thompson. He has NO organization!"

That's why it's called a "grassroots" effort to draft Fred. We hope you'll join us.

:O)

P

[stillonaroll]

Thompson is fulfilling his role. Take votes away from other candidates in the hopes his friend’s fortunes rise...

That is absolute drivel and you know it!

[ellery]

I disagree. Mr. Giuliani would be an extremely strong candidate in the general election against any Democrat, but especially Hillary Clinton You are right however, that he is weak among some Republicans in the primary run, mostly social conservatives.

I believe he will ultimately be weak in the general election, should he win the nomination. He doesn't only lose social conservatives -- he also loses small-l, small-government conservatives because of his support of eminent domain, his support of property forfeiture even for those who have been acquitted of a crime, and authoritarian ideas he floated as mayor such as collecting the DNA of all newborns.

You have a lot of people from both groups telling you they will not vote for Rudy under any circumstances. Some of them truly won't. In an election where every vote counts, you're gambling that Rudy will pick up enough democrats to make up for the loss of two key Republican factions. I think that's a bad bet. If you lose that wager, don't turn around and blame folks who can't vote for him. You have fair warning that a candidate more acceptable to a wide range of republicans might turn out to be more electable.

I'm not slamming you for supporting Rudy -- he's personally likeable, a leader and a good communicator. I just don't see how he's going to win without the support of all GOP factions. And I won't take kindly to being blamed later when there's been plenty of fair warning that a lot of Republicans can't vote for him. I think the early polls are not predictive of what will ultimately happen in the general election.

[cookcounty]

"Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top, but his support dips below the 30% mark for the first time in seven weeks. With Thompson in the mix, Giuliani’s support tumbles to 26%,

Man the lifeboats! S.S. Rudy sinking fast!

[Mobile Vulgus]

...I never said his candidacy was impossible! I just worry that he has nothing to back up his appeal, nothing to catapult him into the real world of politics on a nationwide level.

Appeal is one thing, operatives to work the campaign is another.

[cookcounty]

"Thompson is fulfilling his role. Take votes away from other candidates in the hopes his friend’s fortunes rise. Thompson is McCain’s very good friend."

Wrong. I'm strong for Thompson but McCain is my last choice. Thompson support does not translate to probable McCain support. Thompson is more conservative than McCain, an excellent speaker, connects with people, and hasn't spent the last 6 years trying to prove he's a "maverick*."

*def: maverick. (n.) a non-team player often displaying petulant behavior.

[papasmurf]

"...I never said his candidacy was impossible!"

I didn't think you did. I just wanted you to know that Fred did not instigate this process, WE did.

Lucky for Fred that his home state is renowned for its willingness to donate to political candidates. Beginning with Sen. Howard Baker's (R-Tenn.) run for the Presidency in 1980 and with Al Gore's first run in 1988 and then both of Sen. Lamar Alexander's unsuccessful bids for national office (and don't former Sen. Bill Frist's abbreviated run), Volunteer State donors are acclimated to supporting their native sons.

Baker, Frist and Alexander are intimately involved in the recruitment of Thompson and would undoubtedly bring their financial networks to bear on his behalf -- ensuring a solid financial base on which to build a national campaign.

Combine Fred's capacity for fundraising in his home state with his starpower and his acceptability to social conservatives, and a LOT of (so-called) conservative dems, and you have a package that no other candidate in the field offers.

Believe me, there is a whole herd of "closet" Republicans in Hollywierd that are chomping at the bit to pour money into Fred's campaign. They just need to hear it from Fred.

[The Pack Knight]

Furthermore, Fred Thompson may have more organization than you think...

Allies take steps for Thompson campaign (Thread on Washington Times article)

[aligncare]

I respect your point of view because at least you presented your position in a respectful way.

I had not heard these three points about Mr. Giuliani before:

his support of eminent domain, his support of property forfeiture even for those who have been acquitted of a crime, and authoritarian ideas he floated as mayor such as collecting the DNA of all newborns.

I intend to research the facts surrounding them. Thank you.

[aligncare]

Mr. Giuliani never revoked gun permits. The automatic renewal process was changed so that each permit holder would have to go through a review. Much like my permit was reviewed yearly in Shasta county California.

You must remember, at the time, murders were out of control in New York City, topping out at a Dinkins administration high of around 2000/yr. Following these law and order measures, the number of murders were brought down to around 650/yr.

I guess one could conclude that in this case more guns did not equal less crime — and the opposite was true that less guns equaled less crime.