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An 80 Foot Sea Level Rise!!??
Wood TV ^ | March 19, 2007 | Craig James

Posted on 03/20/2007 8:16:51 PM PDT by DouglasKC

An 80 Foot Sea Level Rise!!??

poar01_warming0605.jpgHere is a graphic that will make you stand up and take notice–especially if you have relatives who live in New York City. This image appeared in Vanity Fair magazine in May 2006 and shows how much of New York City would be under water if all of the ice on Greenland and the Antarctic were to melt causing sea levels to rise 80 feet. 80 feet! Where did they get that number? What a scare tactic. Not even Al Gore uses a number that high. Certainly the IPCC doesn’t.

What does the IPCC Summary released in February have to say about sea level rise? This is the published chart from page 11 of the Summary. screenshot_012.jpgThe numbers are for each of six different CO2 emissions scenarios and are in meters. Converting to inches gives a range of 7 to 23 inches by the end of the 21st century with the mean values between 8 and 18 inches. Those numbers don’t exactly portray an 80 foot catastrophe. And the IPCC does give this caveat to their forecast:

Models used to date do not include uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedback nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow….the projections include a contribution due to increased ice flow from Greenland and Antarctica at the rates observed for 1993-2003, but these flow rates could increase or decrease in the future.

They also state on page 13 that if temperatures warm in excess of 3.4 to 8.3 degrees Fahrenheit and continue at that value for a MILLENNIA, the result would be an elimination of the Greenland ice sheet resulting in a sea level rise of about 20 feet. In other words, a 20 foot sea level rise in 1,000 years is possible from the complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet IF the highly uncertain computer model forecasts of future temperature rises and ice flow are correct. The ice flow rates could actually “decrease in the future”. Part of the projected sea level rise is due to the expansion of water as it warms and this is factored into the IPCC forecasts.

What about the Antarctic ice sheet? Is it melting away as many news stories such as this one titled “Antarctic Glaciers going, going, gone” have implied? Here is a quote from the IPCC on page 13:

Current global model studies project that the Antarctic ice sheet will remain too cold for widespread surface melting and is expected to gain in mass due to increased snowfall.

Indeed, the average temperature on the Antarctic continent is 56 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. When you look closely at the news stories such as the one above, you find that the ice melt has been on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet on the Antarctic Peninsula, not on the main continent. There is some disagreement as to the cause of this ice melt, but even Real Climate (a web site strongly supportive of global warming) states:

The retreat of these glaciers in itself will have a negligible effect on sea level, since most of the ice that has retreated was in the water already.

Since there are no current global warming scenarios which produce a temperature rise of the magnitude needed to melt the Antarctic ice sheet, the forecast of an 80 foot sea level rise clearly seems to be another example of the many exaggerations made about this subject. It seems to me a little like the outrageous comment of Sir David King, the United Kingdom’s Chief Scientist who says “Antarctica is likely to be the world’s only habitable continent by the end of this century if global warming goes unchecked”.

A 20 foot rise in 1,000 years is a concern, but there are so many admitted uncertainties in that forecast, even it can’t possibly be portrayed as a sure thing.

Posted: March 19th, 2007 under All Blog Posts, Craig James.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climatechange; global; globalwarming; hysteria; scam; seaplus; warming; weredoomed
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Craig James is a local meteorologist that has been in the field for a LONG time. His blog is fascinating because he spits up and chews out the global warming hysteria by putting things into perspective. Check out all his posts at the source URL.
1 posted on 03/20/2007 8:16:55 PM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: DouglasKC

And dogs will be sleeping with cats! Oh My!


2 posted on 03/20/2007 8:28:14 PM PDT by corkoman
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To: DouglasKC

All I can say about this mythical 80 foot sea level rise is: Yeah, and if an elephant had wings, he'd be a damn big bird.


3 posted on 03/20/2007 8:29:10 PM PDT by basil (Exercise your Second Amendment rights--buy another gun today.)
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To: DouglasKC

As was written about another inundation, in 1824: "an excellent occasion for your ladies to take a bidet" [written by a poet of genius, btw, and not by a mere cade].


4 posted on 03/20/2007 8:31:13 PM PDT by GSlob
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To: DouglasKC

Hmmmm, that picture doesn't look too bad. Just think about all the fish habitats that place would make!!


5 posted on 03/20/2007 8:32:06 PM PDT by biff
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To: DouglasKC
If the Grand River goes up 80 ft I'd be in trouble.
If NYC gets the 80 ft, nothing would change for me. I'd still never go there.
6 posted on 03/20/2007 8:34:09 PM PDT by ASA Vet (http://www.rinorepublic.com)
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To: DouglasKC

The city will be clean at last!


7 posted on 03/20/2007 8:35:00 PM PDT by docbnj
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To: DouglasKC
Well, now, after seeing Waterworld, that doesn't seen so bad.

Sun's condition sure does affect Earth, no? But maybe some legislation to lower the sun's temperature is just what we need.

8 posted on 03/20/2007 8:35:10 PM PDT by William Terrell (Individuals can exist without government but government can't exist without individuals.)
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To: DouglasKC
1 cm is hardly 80 foot, These morons do not consider how much water the earth will absorb on land or atmosphere.

After Antarctica, Greenland's ice cap contains the second largest mass of frozen freshwater in the world. This new research indicates enough ice loss to cause a measurable rise in sea levels. Quantified conservatively, the study indicates a net loss of roughly 51 cubic kilometers of ice per year from the entirety of the Greenland ice sheet. That's enough to raise the average sea level worldwide about .13 millimeters per year. While that might not sound like much, consider that in the space of only a single lifetime, it's nearly 1 centimeter of rise, and that's only if we assume the rate of increase remains the same.
9 posted on 03/20/2007 8:35:56 PM PDT by Rodm (Seest thou a man diligent in his business? He shall stand before kings)
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To: DouglasKC
Where can we donate to the Antarctic Liqufication Front?
10 posted on 03/20/2007 8:36:24 PM PDT by Centurion2000 (If you're not being shot at, it's not a high stress job.)
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To: basil
All I can say about this mythical 80 foot sea level rise is: Yeah, and if an elephant had wings, he'd be a damn big bird.

And the problem with bird poop on your car would be an order of magnitude greater...

11 posted on 03/20/2007 8:36:41 PM PDT by Swordmaker (Remember, the proper pronunciation of IE is "AAAAIIIIIEEEEEEE)
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To: DouglasKC

So....liberals and other GW believers are selling their beachfront property and moving inland, right? Wake me up when beachfront property in Miami reaches $1/sq. mile.


12 posted on 03/20/2007 8:36:57 PM PDT by randog (What the...?!)
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To: DouglasKC
Hey, where can we donate to the Antarctic Liqification Front?


13 posted on 03/20/2007 8:38:56 PM PDT by Centurion2000 (If you're not being shot at, it's not a high stress job.)
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To: William Terrell

The worst part is when it all freezes. This was all documented in "Artificial Intelligence".


14 posted on 03/20/2007 8:39:19 PM PDT by BipolarBob (Yes I backed over the vampire, but I swear I didn't see it in my rear view mirror.)
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To: randog

We need even greater global warming! I'm hoping for beachfront property here in North Dakota! Bye Bye NY!


15 posted on 03/20/2007 8:41:42 PM PDT by upsdriver ((Hunter / Thompson......Gonzo politics)
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To: DouglasKC

People who read Vanity Fair for their news are dumb enough to believe this.


16 posted on 03/20/2007 8:47:06 PM PDT by hometoroost (TSA = Thousands Standing Around)
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To: DouglasKC

Ice that is already on water will not raise the sea level one inch. It is already displacing water.

The ice on the Antarctic and the North Pole land masses will take 10 to 15,000 years to melt if we have global warming.

If CO2 causes global warming, then China will do the world in all by itself.


17 posted on 03/20/2007 8:48:23 PM PDT by TheLion (How about "Comprehensive Immigration Enforcement," for a change)
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To: corkoman

18 posted on 03/20/2007 8:52:14 PM PDT by null and void (To Marines, male bonding happens in Boot Camp, to Democrats, it happens at a Gay Pride parade...)
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To: DouglasKC

If a frog had wings he wouldn't bump himself.. as often..


19 posted on 03/20/2007 8:55:03 PM PDT by hosepipe (CAUTION: This propaganda is laced with hyperbole)
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To: DouglasKC

The colder it gets, the worse the global warming is.


20 posted on 03/20/2007 9:03:00 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (Turning the general election into a second Democrat primary is not a winning strategy.)
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