Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[HawaiianGecko]

Yet these are the same posters who tell us all that unless we get their social right candidate that they will refuse to vote Republican. Now, I ask, who is a Republican in name only?

I have to agree wholeheartedly with you on that statement.  I've argued that a RINO is an impossibility, as a Republican is anyone that registers with the GOP, Alan Derschowictz could be a registered Republican and a liberal whack at the same time. If they used the term CINO, conservative in name only, then it would make a bit of sense as it is an ideology, not an organization.

Still we all need to keep in mind that Free Republic is a conservative forum, not an arm of the Republican National Committee.  It's mission statement says something about promoting conservatives, not necessarily Republicans.

A great deal of people I read in here are really libertarians, some actually appear to be liberal (or American liberal which is more Britney Spears than Karl Marx), some who claim to be conservatives come across as charter members of the Charles Manson Party. Quite a few mistake conservatism with Christianity and Judaism with liberals. (although I can't square that with Menachem Begin, Ariel Sharon or the Likud party)...  Heck, even Sam Colt was a Democrat. (go figure)

 

[JHBowden]

I've looked at a lot of of the Hunter videos on youtube. Hunter, with his permanent scowl and slovenly appearance, isn't the guy the make the sale to the American people.

Communicating ideas is part of reality. We need a candidate that can make the sell about the need to stop Revolutionary Islamists before they spike nukes over our side the net. Bush is not a good communicator, and people at home and abroad are really confused about America's motives. This has left the floor open for progressive demagogues, and saying "I'm against stemcell research and Michael Schiavo" isn't going to turn things around.

If I was only voting for people based on how closely they agreed with myself, hell, I would just vote for myself! But you have to look at what is in the best interests of the Republic over the long term.

[napscoordinator]

I believe the McCain numbers. I believe that people will vote for him behind the curtin. Why would anyone want to face the powerful thugs who criticize the awesome McCain supporters when they can just vote for him quietly.

[politicalwit]

Thanks...I needed that!

[HitmanLV]

So much for the base being alienated by Rudy McRomney - combined they represent a powerful majority of the GOP base.

It appears that the pockets of negativity about these three is limited to impotent members of public internet forums.

[GrandEagle]

If they used the term CINO, conservative in name only, then it would make a bit of sense as it is an ideology, not an organization.
Very true... I may have to reconsider my terminology.

[bushfamfan]

In all actuality, Fred Thompson isn't exactly smiley face! And I do recommend people check out Duncan Hunter because no one exudes more leadership than that fine man and he can just cut right to a point and speak common sense that strikes to the issue. You're trying to win people over to the 'actor', I'm trying to get people to check out Duncan Hunter. I think more people that actually take a look at Hunter will come to the opposite view of your's. I think that's your bias showing with 'electability'. I'll tell you, outside the GOP fawning over the 'actor', the only people who would really know who he is are people who watch Law and Order. He isn't so big a name or as assured 'electabillity' as some would like to claim. He will eventually face the military question. The GOP is going to have to have a solid messenger on Iraq and the WOT and Hunter is the MOST qualified and MOST capable in that area. And I prefer a man more in the mold of John Wayne with actual military experience and the strength of character and leadership like Hunter.

[tumblindice]

"I can't wait until the debates."
Me either. This fake New York conservative is going to tank like the Titanic.

"Mr. Mayor, Your thoughts on, say--the tremedous number of guns in this country that kill children, babies actually, every day."

"Well, Chris, let me--I just want to say this: (sternly) I remain firm but flexible--fair while firm. And elastic, open-minded, while remaining conservative. And yet I'm not as stupid as they are! (Big grin)
Why, on 9/11 (pause for effect) I remember standing in the ruins of the . . . ya da ya da ya da ya da"

Demohack Moderator: "And on the subject of equal rights for ALL Americans? Mr. America's Mayor?"

"Well, Chris, let me, I just want to say this: . . . (rinse, repeat)"

[Calpernia]

You shop at Saks with Veronica?

[Calpernia]

>>>>awesome McCain supporters

So you support the documents McCain had shredded on our POWs?

[Liz]

An even more significant poll was the one taken right after Andrew Giuliani outed his father as a miserable no-show Dad, with an overbearing, shrewish third wife who orders Rudy not to see his children.

An astounding 88% of Americans said they had a problem with Rudy not attending his son's graduation.

The pollsters also should have asked if they supported a Republican candidate who went after the Liberal Party endorsement in his mayoral bid.

Rudy pursued the NY Liberal Party endorsement b/c Rudy said his friends and family were too embarassed to vote for a Republican.

Mayor Rudy thanked New York Liberal Party's for its endorsement and support, by appointing Liberal Party Chairwoman Fran Reiter as Deputy Mayor. Rudy also gave to top city jobs to Russell Harding and his brother, sons of Giuliani's close friend and campaign adviser Raymond Harding (then-Liberal Party Chairman).

Russell Harding (son of Liberal Party Chair Ray Harding) was Rudy's City Housing Director but had to leave office upon being arrested by federal law enforcement and charged with conspiracy, fraud, mail fraud, wire fraud, receiving child pornography, and possesing child pornography.

Russell Harding (son of Liberal Party Chair Ray Harding) was using his official credit card to pay for personal items including a car, 'Sopranos' DVDs, and a helicopter tour of the Grand Canyon.

Rudy's City Housing Director, Russell Harding (son of Liberal Party chair Ray Harding), enjoyed kiddie porn on city computers, and took trips on the city's dime with his gay friends (this is all documented). Russell later pleaded guilty to the charges and was sentenced to 5 years in prison and forced to repay $367,000 he embezzled from the New York City.

Not one to soil his liberal bona fides, Rudy's only public statement on Russell's government fraud was that he "felt sorry for the Harding family."

[denydenydeny]

Well, I was polled by Quinnipiac last night and I identified myself as a conservative, and I named Rudy my preferred candidate among the announced Republicans, pending Fred Thompson.

So I guess I was lying?

[A Strict Constructionist]

"I think it's clear that we who see Rudy for what he is have lost"

Don't give up the keyboard yet. This is digital warfare. They are using misinformation as a weapon. Liberals hoping we give up and join them. Rudy is not the solution he's part of the problem.

[JHBowden]

What is Saks?

[MeanWestTexan]

Who's talking about you?

[MeanWestTexan]

Funny, rumors out that Rudy will run as VP with Fred on top of ticket.

[napscoordinator]

Senator and POW survivor McCain was offered to leave the camp early but graciously declined because he wanted to ensure the other POW's were released too. He is probably the closest to Jesus Christ on Earth at least in regards to humbleness. Oh and before you think I am crazy because most jealous anti-Senator McCain guys are...we just had Code of Conduct training last week for the Navy and Senator McCain was discussed in the powerpoint presentation about his handling as a POW and it was extremely honorable!!! He is just one of those people who should be looked up to and not looked down upon because the people who look down on him have not been able to accomplish what he has. The entire Military is behind McCain and that is a pretty large voting block.

[Diamond]

Free Republic has been out of touch with the American voting public since the 2006 elections.

There's always something for which to be grateful.

Cordially,

[Democratshavenobrains]

Lefties are capable of being happy with moderately pro-life Democrats like Casey in Pennsylvania when the alternative is the bogeyman Rick Santorum.

Why can't conservatives be happy that a moderate conservative will beat Hillary and Osama Obama like drums?

[Calpernia]

>>>What is Saks?

Have Veronica ping you when she goes shopping for sale items there

She may be a fun shopping buddy, since she thinks like you. She doesn't want a schlepper in a JCPenney suit either.