Posted on 03/20/2007 8:21:54 AM PDT by areafiftyone
March 20, 2007
Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative RepublicansGingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.
An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.
Nomination Preference by Ideology
Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.
Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.
The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
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Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
Rudy Giuliani |
48 |
Rudy Giuliani |
38 |
John McCain |
26 |
John McCain |
20 |
Mitt Romney |
3 |
Newt Gingrich |
14 |
George Pataki |
2 |
Mitt Romney |
8 |
Sam Brownback |
2 |
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
Newt Gingrich |
2 |
|
|
Tommy Thompson |
2 |
|
|
|
|
||
All others |
3 |
All others |
9 |
|
|
||
No preference |
11 |
No preference |
9 |
Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.
Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.
If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.
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Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
|||
Moderate/ |
% |
Conservative |
% |
Rudy Giuliani |
49% |
Rudy Giuliani |
43% |
John McCain |
27% |
John McCain |
21% |
Mitt Romney |
3% |
Mitt Romney |
11% |
George Pataki |
3% |
Sam Brownback |
2% |
Sam Brownback |
2% |
Duncan Hunter |
2% |
Tommy Thompson |
2% |
Tommy Thompson |
2% |
|
Tom Tancredo |
2% |
|
|
|
||
All others |
4% |
All others |
7% |
|
|
||
No preference |
11% |
No preference |
10% |
Favorable Ratings of Candidates
In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.
While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.
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Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, |
|||
Favorable |
Un- |
No |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
|
|
|
All Republicans |
80 |
11 |
10 |
Moderate/Liberal |
80 |
7 |
13 |
Conservative |
80 |
13 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
John McCain |
|
|
|
All Republicans |
68 |
19 |
13 |
Moderate/Liberal |
66 |
17 |
17 |
Conservative |
69 |
21 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Mitt Romney |
|
|
|
All Republicans |
32 |
12 |
56 |
Moderate/Liberal |
23 |
11 |
66 |
Conservative |
38 |
13 |
49 |
Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.
The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.
Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Ridiculous.
You are making the assumption that those people would vote for ANY Republican but Rudy. They won't they are the same malcontents who make these threats every presidential election and many are not even Republicans. Twenty per cent of the MOST conservative people on the most conservative site reflect in NO way the electorate. You are talking about 2% of the voters.
In addition, there will be 2 to 3 voters moving to Rudy for every one who pouts. What you are refusing to acknowledge is that the reason Bush barely won is because the country is NOT conservative. He could only win by appealing to voters BEYOND that 35% calling themselves "conservative". Rudy has FAR more appeal to independents and moderates than Bush ever did and Hillary will be even less appealing than Gore or Kerry.
Treason Media attacks have made conservatives "extremists" and toxic as the last election showed to any who care to think about the results.
Hillary's FBI files are the most overrated source of power I can recall. They are a great myth but only that.
You are correct. He is a non-issue though a fine man.
It is amazing how normally sane and thoughtful people can actually claim, with a straight face, that Hunter can win this.
It was a general characterization of a group of extremists within the base of the Republican Party, not a personal attack on anyone. But if the shoe fits...
Of course you're attacking all social conservatives, not just me. But it does shed some light on the little ball of hatred you carry for those who care about life, liberty, family, and religious freedom.
Well then, why didn't you ask me, instead of the stupid and inane insult? What you just said about hatred, life, liberty, etc has no relevance to the tactics I attributed to some on the social right. I don't want that agenda to become campaign issues in the next election for a number of reasons. Believe me, when I read such posts as yours, I know that it is not the conservatives nor the moderates in our Party who hold the market on hatred.
Visit America some time -- or perhaps even (gasp!) a church! -- and you'll find your liberal views are the extreme ones.
That post of yours together with this one shows how completely out of touch you people are with America. And don't worry about my faith, nor my political philosophy. As a life-long conservative, I completely recognize the danger some on both extremes of politics pose to this great Nation, a danger we must all be vigilant to. Your agenda has been outed and you will find it difficult to impose your social "values" on America any more. The Republican Party needs conservatives from all across America. It neither needs nor wants social extremists. You take care.
Solid conservative after solid conservative have stepped up and spoken favorably (Newt, Santorum) or endorsed him outright (Drier, and others). And what is the response of the Rudyphobic? "Sellout, RINO, Liberal, phoney etc." Very tiresome and telling isn't it?
Yes, it is very telling.
If Rudy Julie Annie switched to the Democrat party could be elected president. He will not be selected by the Republican party.
Your list distorts most of the issues wrt Rudy's stance. It has little to do with reality. And the same old arguments gets thrown up-"wait till people know what he believes" which assumes even FReepers are politically ignorant. As more and more info is released Rudy's number keep climbing thereby refuting that claim.
Many are here have stated they are turned off by such attempts at deception and are MORE likely to vote for Rudy.
Your problem is finding someone who can BEAT him. And that is a HUGE problem. Particularly since those you would prefer have NO following to speak of, are complete unknowns, nutcases or hated. Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Huckabee, Tancredo, Brownback, Newt or Fred are not going to blaze into the stratosphere uniting all under them.
What it is telling is that those applying those labels are not merely isolated from the American people as a whole but from the conservative movement as well. They are a tiny minority of Irreconcilables heading quickly into inconsequence.
Let me know if/when you get those stances sorted out so I'll know just where he stands. I'd hate to get the wrong impression about the man.
You can go to Tradesports.com and buy Thompson futures for 8 cents on the dollar. He is a conservative pipedream, but a false hope. His possible candidacy has stalled some other conservatives, and that also helps Giuliani, so Thompson might wait a while before he formally anounces that he is not running. The first primary is less than a year away, but this thing is all but over already, by the simple fact that the system has been rigged in such a way that an underfunded candidate cannot possibly take it.
Just look at the numbers. For a guy like Hunter to get the name recognition he needs will take at least ten impressions per voter at a minimum of $20 per thousand per impression. So you are looking at $2 per vote minimum just to get equal name recognition. There are 8 million or so Republicans in California, ao you are talking $16 million just to get equal name recognition. To get voters to understand the differences between the candidates, build preference for Hunter and close the deal will take at least another $2 per vote. Now you are at $32 million, and that's just the one state. Plus, it assumes that Giuliani runs a weak campaign as he matches or outspends his opponent.
So the only candidates with a realistic chance are going to be those with name recognition already. Thompson has face recognition if not name recognition, but as they try to figure out what message and how much money in media it will take to get him over Giuliani, assuming Giuliani can match him dollar for dollar, he needs $20 million minimum, and really more like $50 million just to compete. A lot of that money will have to be spent building up Giuliani's negatives, which would only hurt the party in November were Giuliani able to defend the attack.
The party's financial backers are asking the obvious question: if we've already got a guy who gets 50 percent of the vote, why throw good money at someone to tear that candidate down? Principle? Please. Principle might matter to Freepers, but it matters little to the big money folks. They took a financial beating backing social conservatives in 2006, so they are going for a different kind of horse this time. The polls suggest that Giuliani is a thoroughbred who can win in the fall, and the money wants to back a winner more than anything else.
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