Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Bump!

[justshutupandtakeit]

Someone holding a gun to your head forcing you to look at this poll and comment? I didn't think so. And you don't know what "spam" is.

[TommyDale]

There are lots of people who just don't respond to these calls. More and more are depending on cell phones only, and those are not even called in these polls.

[TommyDale]

This is the best explanation of the Gallup results:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1803763/posts?page=35#35

[SJackson]

I see no reason to think Rudy will cave to terror or immediately withdraw from Iraq. I see a difference between Rudy and Hillary, you don't

[justshutupandtakeit]

That irrelevancy might gain significance if the poll was out of line with all the rest say showing Rudy with a 30 point lead while all the rest had him losing.

In REALITY though, unfortunately for your argument, the poll shows the same 12-20% lead that they ALL do.

[Pox]

Not enough to print a comma.

I guess if he has a dim congress to work with we can say goodbye to many types of firearms, hello to homosexual marriage....

They are simply two sides of the same coin, IMO.

[justshutupandtakeit]

#246.

[TommyDale]

It's a conflict of interest, regardless of the outcome of the poll. Does Gallup disclose their relationship with Giuliani?

Better yet, does Giuliani disassociate himself from the conflicts of interest where his lawfirm represents them?

[Lucky9teen]

Duncan Hunter

Unless and until there is absolutely no other candidate and it's down to the last minute, will I vote for Giuliani. IMO, he's WAY too liberal for my taste.

[justshutupandtakeit]

to be slung. It won't get any worse than what has been attempted here nor will it be any more successful.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Because I would much rather point out your ridiculous lies.

[massadvj]

Democrats will not vote for a Republican, regardless of his leftist stance on the issues.

Gee, I wonder how it is that Schwartzenegger got elected? We don't need Democrats. Twenty percent of the electorate is independent, and they are largely liberal on social issues, conservative on taxes and security.

[InfraRed]

In the Freeper poll on the issue 70% will vote for Rudy over Hillary.

Think about that for a second! In a conservative FR poll, the Republican candidate should have received 99% support against Hillary! Rudy's standing is pathetic, especially when you consider how close the past two presidential elections were.

Here's the poll in question:

How would you vote if it's Rudy vs Hillary in '08?

Composite Opinion
Rudy 	        66.8% 		4,343
Third party 	21.1% 		1,372
Sit it out 	5.0% 		322
Hillary 	3.9% 		252
Undecided 	3.2% 		208
	       100.0% 		6,497
	       
Member Opinion
Rudy 	        69.3% 		1,950
Third party 	20.6% 		580
Sit it out 	4.9% 		138
Undecided 	4.2% 		117
Hillary 	1.1% 		30
	      100.1% 		2,815
	      
Non-Member Opinion
Rudy 	        65.0% 		2,393
Third party 	21.5% 		792
Hillary 	6.0% 		222
Sit it out 	5.0% 		184
Undecided 	2.5% 		91
	      100.0% 		3,682

More than 1 in 5 voters will drift to a third party, and you don't feel like you need them? SHEESH! How blind are you?

Those who divide themselves away from the GOP will not be missed as Rudy will crush any RAT opponent.

It appears that you do not remember how close the past two presidential elections were. Bush did not "crush" Gore, and Bush did not "crush" Kerry. Instead, Bush squeaked by, and now you want to drive voters away from the party?!? They won't be missed?!?

Rudy is a divisive loser, unless you intentially want to damage the Republican party.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Apparently you could not conclude on your own that Dole won because no one could beat him since you put it off as some kind of conspiracy oooo, conspiracy oooo.

An "undercurrent" among the lamebrained media perhaps but no one of substance claimed anyone was owed anything.

[MACVSOG68]

As bad as an HRC presidency would be, I would rather let that embarrassment (ala Carter) be directly put upon the dims instead of the same embarrassing results be reflected upon the Republicans by RINO Rudy.
Consider that.

Oh, I consider it, and understand that as I said before, those who will only vote Republican as long as the candidate meets their social agendas are the real RINOs. I don't care if Hillary embarrasses her party or not. I care about the damage she can do to our Country.

[KATIE-O]

I do believe the liberals would love to see Rudy nominated. There's lots of dirty laundry they can air. And as I said, I think that is what would lose him the general election.




I would venture to guess that over half the population has some "dirty laundry" and will vote for whomever they feel can keep the country safe in a war against Islamofascist's who want to kill every American on the planet.

Go Rudy!!

[MACVSOG68]

Many of those never vote Republican and have no intention of voting Republican. Some even admit they aren't but still believe they have some say on the nominee.

From some of the silly posts I've seen from some of them, I'm not sure they're even of voting age.

[dforest]

I doubt that. Time will tell. People here only use what is documented.

What else is there? Hmmnnnnn?

The Hill didn't steal those FBI files to toast weenies.

[justshutupandtakeit]

You still don't get the point. Why would those NOT answering bias the poll EITHER way? Do only "conservatives" NOT answer? I don't think so. And if one who does answer claim to be a conservative what has changed? This is just another lame attempt to discredit the messenger because you do not like the message.