Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[HawaiianGecko]

I didn't know Hunter was a Ranger, so he doesn't come across as clearly as a Ranger as you may think.  I just assume most men of my generation served in the military.  I did know his son served in Iraq, but how that equates to John Wayne is simply beyond me.  Patrick Wayne was shot at in the movie Big Jake, maybe that's your comparison. 

Yes, Duncan Hunter has served well and most admirably in congress for 25+ years. If memory serves me correctly he's been on the Armed Services Committee for most of that time, but forgive me for not seeing the correlation to John Wayne. Now the Duke did play Davey Crockett in The Alamo, and Crockett was a United States Congressman, but he was from Tennessee of all places.  I'll leave the remainder of that argument and logical conclusion to you.

Your statement that Hunter has actually served and been an influential member of Congress doesn't sway me too much. I'm not quite sure that being one out of 435 congressmen wields much more power than that of a United States Senator. You also seem to slight Thompson for being in government since 1973 as counsel to many congressional and senate committees, governors etc., and even the fact that he was a sitting US Senator for nine years. To insinuate that a man that has been playing hardball politics inside the beltway since before you were even born, isn't as qualified as a congressman sounds a bit silly to me.  The man was the special counsel to the Watergate Commission and hardball politics aren't played any faster than the first coup d'état in United States History.

You said that Hunter is nice looking and commands respect and the type women will look to as keeping our country safe.  Well I'm a man and really have no opinion here other than to say that Fred does have a bloodhound look about him, but realize this... television is all about ratings and Thompson is on a long running very successful prime time show.

I have no idea how big Hunter is but I do know that John Wayne is 6'4" and  Fred Thompson is 6'6".  I'll trust that you know he's a big man and believe you.  However, I fail to see your syllogism that's connects Hunter to Wayne because of height and not Thompson to Wayne.

You mentioned; Oh yes, how could I forget this 'slovenly' argument??!!  I suggest you shouldn't forget it, at least not without peril.  Steve Buscemi is a much better actor than George Clooney.  Which of these two is likely to be a leading man in a movie this year?  I don't make the rules.  I just play by them.

I want to finish by explaining to you that I have no particular problem at all with Duncan Hunter, nor do I have a big problem with any of the candidates for the GOP nomination.  I will support the candidate that my party puts forward next year period.  Hell, I'd be proud to support Congressman Hunter.  He's just simply going to have to contact a tailor and hire Senator Thompsons wife. She's a political media consultant at Verner Liipfert law firm in Washington, and works/worked for the Senate Republican Conference and Republican National Committee.

 

[MACVSOG68]

The person who votes for any candidate with "Republican" after his NAME is a Republican in Name only.

The person who holds his party hostage to a social agenda out of step with most of America, and refuses to support his party's candidate is the true RINO. He may be a member in good standing of the social right, but he is only borrowing the name Republican.

Think about it: if you vote for a liberal like Hillary, or Rudy, just because they called themselves "Republican", yeah, you're a RINO.

You'll pardon me if I don't take your word for the definition of a liberal...or a conservative. There is no Republican on the campaign trail today who is not an infinitely better candidate for president than Hillary. We make our ideological choices in the primaries, and our party choices in November. If even Brownback (God forbid) should get the nomination, he would garner my vote. November is when real Republicans put all of their differences aside and get behind their Party's candidate. Those who don't are RINO's.

[massadvj]

Fred Thompson will bounce RINO Rudy right out of the ring if he decides to run, IMO

He is quietly being told he will not get the necessary money to make a run at Giuliani. He will not run without some assurances as far as financing. Howard Baker is making phone calls and they are not being returned.

[massadvj]

Gun Owners - Nowhere else to go.

Pro Life - Nowhere else to go.

Closed borders - Nowhere else to go.

Anti Gay Marriage - Nowhere else to go.

How do I know? I fall into three of these four categories but still support Giuliani because I am a political realist. Where do these folks go when candidates like Schwartzenegger and Specter run? Where do the closed borders folks go when Bush runs? Some will bolt, sure, maybe you among them. But most will take half a loaf rather than no loaf at all. It's simple human nature.

[MEGoody]

He will still win the nomination because the Republican party is growing up and realizing that placing this litmus test on every candidate is a losing proposition.

We shall see. He won't be getting my support.

I do believe the liberals would love to see Rudy nominated. There's lots of dirty laundry they can air. And as I said, I think that is what would lose him the general election.

[Pox]

Those assertions are not being backed by reality from what I've read over the last week.

[JohnnyZ]

The person who holds his party hostage to a social agenda out of step with most of America,

Another "gay rights" pro-abortion liberal.

Get outta here.

[Pox]

Only an idiot would cut off his nose to spite his face.

RINO Rudy is nothing less that the Republican version of HRC.

The race has not even begun as of yet, however, you would have us believe that the nomination is locked up for RINO Rudy.

Excuse me, but I believe you are full of it.

Screw a half loaf of RINO Rudy. Why slow bleed the country with him? Just let her heinous have it and be done with it immediately.

If Rudy becomes the POTUS, this nation is doomed, IMO. He is the last person that the Republicans need to nominate. The liberal left MSM is pushing that POS on us for what I believe are obvious reasons, and I will have none of it.

[InfraRed]

Some will bolt, sure, maybe you among them. But most will take half a loaf rather than no loaf at all. It's simple human nature.

We can't afford to have anyone bolt!!! Remember how close the past two presidential elections were?!?!

If *anyone* bolts, it's a certain win for Democrats. If the Republican party is so stupid as to sacrifice 80% of its platform, even if it only cost a small percentage of the base, the Dimrats will win in '08.

Democrats will not vote for a Republican, regardless of his leftist stance on the issues.

[Pox]

Again, cutting off your nose to spite your face is an act of an imbecile.

The best thing to happen would to force Rudy from the front runner status in any way possible.

Win at any cost is not the answer, and neither is RINO Rudy. Voting for him is no different than voting for HRC, IMO. Both are cut from the same liberal cloth, IMO, and I don't believe for one second that he would not make the exact same decisions as Clinton in spite of whatever claims he and anyone who supports him make.

Instead of accepting the liberal push of RINO Rudy upon conservatives, it is our DUTY to REJECT HIM NOW.

[MACVSOG68]

Another "gay rights" pro-abortion liberal.

Get outta here.

I don't know if you've ever noticed, but when extremists find they can't argue a point, they turn on the poster? It's one of their tools to chase away anyone who disagrees with them. Doesn't sound too conservative to me....

[MACVSOG68]

Instead of accepting the liberal push of RINO Rudy upon conservatives, it is our DUTY to REJECT HIM NOW.

Well, I don't know about duty, but certainly is your right to go with someone else in the primaries. But if you believe he is no different from Hillary, then flip a coin. I sense that a term with Hillary at the helm will wake up most here to the differences.

[justshutupandtakeit]

I presume you are joking.

[Pox]

As bad as an HRC presidency would be, I would rather let that embarrassment (ala Carter) be directly put upon the dims instead of the same embarrassing results be reflected upon the Republicans by RINO Rudy.

Consider that.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Fred is no threat to Rudy. To those to his right: Romney, Newt, Hunter etc. he is a BIG threat since he will draw votes from them and lesser amounts from Rudy.

It is funny that people do not realize this or that having Fred enter the race will actually help Rudy by weakening all his opponents. Fred might pass McCain for second place but that is about as far as it will go leaving Rudy with a 10-15% lead.

[Arizona Carolyn]

No, the source of the rumor was a coorespondent from US News Report on the Michael Reagan show yesterday afternoon.

[justshutupandtakeit]

"The mud wars have yet to begin." They have been raging here since Rudy took a big lead in the polls.

FR has had similiar polls for MONTHS even before the Treason media starting reporting theirs, were they creating a perception "hoping that people are mindless followers..." too?

Or are they all just political fun and games?

[Arizona Carolyn]

Duncan Hunter is an "*" in this election and he is getting no traction in the polls.

[airborne]

Those who refuse to see will continue to keep their eyes closed.

It would take a "dead hooker in the trunk" (maybe) to derail this "crazy train".

I'll take alternate transportation.

[SJackson]

Gun Owners - Nowhere else to go....Pro Life - Nowhere else to go...Closed borders - Nowhere else to go...Anti Gay Marriage - Nowhere else to go....How do I know? I fall into three of these four categories but still support Giuliani because I am a political realist.

You have to understand that for the loudest critics on social issues, the war on terror, taxes, or the size of government, isn't on their radar screen, thus if it comes to Rudy vs Hillary, they truely see no difference.