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To: massadvj

Those assertions are not being backed by reality from what I've read over the last week.


206 posted on 03/20/2007 12:12:46 PM PDT by Pox (If it's a Coward you are searching for, you need look no further than the Democrats.)
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To: Pox
I am intimitately familiar with the inner financial machinations of the party. You will see Fred Thompson bow out. He is not getting the financial backing, or frankly even the grassroots tide, that he was looking for, and Giuliani's numbers just keep getting better.

You can go to Tradesports.com and buy Thompson futures for 8 cents on the dollar. He is a conservative pipedream, but a false hope. His possible candidacy has stalled some other conservatives, and that also helps Giuliani, so Thompson might wait a while before he formally anounces that he is not running. The first primary is less than a year away, but this thing is all but over already, by the simple fact that the system has been rigged in such a way that an underfunded candidate cannot possibly take it.

Just look at the numbers. For a guy like Hunter to get the name recognition he needs will take at least ten impressions per voter at a minimum of $20 per thousand per impression. So you are looking at $2 per vote minimum just to get equal name recognition. There are 8 million or so Republicans in California, ao you are talking $16 million just to get equal name recognition. To get voters to understand the differences between the candidates, build preference for Hunter and close the deal will take at least another $2 per vote. Now you are at $32 million, and that's just the one state. Plus, it assumes that Giuliani runs a weak campaign as he matches or outspends his opponent.

So the only candidates with a realistic chance are going to be those with name recognition already. Thompson has face recognition if not name recognition, but as they try to figure out what message and how much money in media it will take to get him over Giuliani, assuming Giuliani can match him dollar for dollar, he needs $20 million minimum, and really more like $50 million just to compete. A lot of that money will have to be spent building up Giuliani's negatives, which would only hurt the party in November were Giuliani able to defend the attack.

The party's financial backers are asking the obvious question: if we've already got a guy who gets 50 percent of the vote, why throw good money at someone to tear that candidate down? Principle? Please. Principle might matter to Freepers, but it matters little to the big money folks. They took a financial beating backing social conservatives in 2006, so they are going for a different kind of horse this time. The polls suggest that Giuliani is a thoroughbred who can win in the fall, and the money wants to back a winner more than anything else.

279 posted on 03/20/2007 2:17:00 PM PDT by massadvj
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