Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[NathanR]

Nice.

However, I don't understand what "Straw Polls" have to do with winning a campaign. They seem more attuned to the old Caucus System, than to the more modern primaries. They seem to me to mean less than all the polls people don't like, than anything meaningful.

[politicalwit]

Rudy's ambition since 9/11 is to make a run for the presidency. Note the absence of interest for Governor or Senate. Could it be Rudy didn't want a track record that could be used against him in a presidential race? It's hard to predict how Rudy would govern nationally without a national or state track record. We know Rudy's record as a Mayor and for many issues it isn't stellar.

[KATIE-O]

Rumors out that Fred will run as VP with Rudy on top of ticket.





That's a winning ticket: Rudy for Pres. and Thompson for VP

And it would open up an opportunity for Thompson to run for Pres. in another 8 years, as an incumbent.

[bushfamfan]

All one needs do is type Duncan Hunter in the search box at the top of the page. pissant has posted some really good threads on what Duncan Hunter has done and the man who has been the Chairman of the Armed Services Committee has been more than obscure! Just because he hasn't had his face plastered over the tv like the Rudy and McCain lovefests 24/7 doesn't mean he has done nothing. He has been influential and you need to do better than that because Rudy is nowhere near Hunter on national security and ability as Commander in Chief.

[politicalwit]

Why would a social conservative want to serve with Rudy? Rudy needs a liberal to run with him to assure similiar qualities.

[KATIE-O]

In all actuality, Fred Thompson isn't exactly smiley face! And I do recommend people check out Duncan Hunter because no one exudes more leadership than that fine man and he can just cut right to a point and speak common sense that strikes to the issue. You're trying to win people over to the 'actor', I'm trying to get people to check out Duncan Hunter. I think more people that actually take a look at Hunter will come to the opposite view of your's. I think that's your bias showing with 'electability'. I'll tell you, outside the GOP fawning over the 'actor', the only people who would really know who he is are people who watch Law and Order. He isn't so big a name or as assured 'electabillity' as some would like to claim. He will eventually face the military question. The GOP is going to have to have a solid messenger on Iraq and the WOT and Hunter is the MOST qualified and MOST capable in that area. And I prefer a man more in the mold of John Wayne with actual military experience and the strength of character and leadership like Hunter.






Duncan WHO? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm being serious. This is what most people ask when you mention the name Duncan Hunter. He's a loser.

[veronica]

You may not think how a candidate presents him or herself in not important, but I do. Ronald Reagan was impeccable, even in Western attire.

[napscoordinator]

OK. Caught me. lol. Entire is a word I should never use.

[TommyDale]

Go back to post #35 in this thread by Calpernia. Connect the dots, then you will figure out the motivation by Gallup.

[TommyDale]

"Rumors out that Fred will run as VP with Rudy on top of ticket."

The source of that rumor would likely be the Giuliani camp. Ain't gonna happen! No Sale!

[bushfamfan]

You only wish he wouldn't be invited to the debates! Rudy will not be at the first debate however. What do you think about that?

[3niner]

Meaningless. Poll conducted before Fred Thompson said he might run.

I would go one step further. I consider all telephone polls to be highly suspect. Many people either refrain from picking up the phone (caller ID), or refuse to answer any questions. The attitudes of this group of people is likely to be very different from those who respond.

[Cailleach]

lol :P

[Rudder]

Thompson said he might run.

Until he runs, he won't win.

[TommyDale]

Again, post #35 in this threat should answer any question about the motivation or suspicion of the poll.

Not only do many people not answer their phones, many have call blocking now. I won't accept any call that is not in my "accepted" database.

[bushfamfan]

Yeah, but Duncan WHO turns into I like Duncan Hunter, he's impressive and presidential! You all know who is the real deal and it is Hunter.

[NathanR]

You were being sarcastic, but you actually have something.

If he had a part on something like Law and Order and had become good at it, he would have gained two things that he lacks. Name recognition and polish. He has the substance, but he does not make a good first impression, or at least that is how it seems to me.

[3niner]

Most of my "conservative" family and co-workers love Rudy.

Many won't when they learn more about him.

[airborne]

No comment! ;^)

(biting my tongue)

[TommyDale]

I meant post #35 of this THREAD not "threat".