Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Ultra Sonic 007]

Baloney!!

I prefer roast beef.

Duncan Hunter is an obscure Congressman who doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the presidency.

We'll see, won't we?

He has no name recognition,

Time will tell.

no experience

Then you haven't researched what exactly he's been doing for the conservative cause...or for our military...or for our country...or you're being willfully ignorant.

and a vote for him is a vote for Hillary.

Straw-man argument.

No thanks!! I'll vote for a man who has proved he can LEAD. And who has proved he can WIN!

Win at any cost! That's certainly worked out well in history.

There are those of us who won't sell out for a liberal. Do you honestly think getting a liberal in the White House is "winning"?

[NucSubs]

I wish you were right.

You're not.

No matter how often we talk or what I give them as proof. It is the strangest thing I have ever seen. They have all become monumental hypocrites all because of the terror the feel at the idea of Hillary as President. I think they would vote for Satan if he could bet Hillary. That and they are all convinced that only Rudy can save us from terrorism.

[Elyse]

This proves that Gallup is out of touch. Or does it prove that Free Republic is out of touch?

It could prove many things, but I think it mostly proves who has the most name recognition and positive media focus.

[devane617]

Can't you RuBot Spammers take a break? Do you think you are helping?

[TET1968]

And here all along I thought it was a group of Hillery loving, CINOS spewing their bigoted hate thing against anyone here who supported the Clintons one and only real obstacle in their path to dictatorship.

[Calpernia]

Someone else read my post! Thank you! I've only had one other acknowledgment on it!

[massadvj]

Now, let us in on why Hunter is unelectable?

No money and no capability to raise the needed money. With the primaries front-loaded the way they are, a candidate needs $20-40 million just to be in the game. Hunter can't get there from here. He can't buy a big enough megaphone, no matter how compelling his message,.

[JohnnyZ]

You know, you reminded me of how they love to throw around the term "RINO", meaning of course, Republican in name only. Yet these are the same posters who tell us all that unless we get their social right candidate that they will refuse to vote Republican. Now, I ask, who is a Republican in name only?

The person who votes for candidates who support the platform of the Republican Party is a true Republican.

The person who votes for any candidate with "Republican" after his NAME is a Republican in Name only.

When the name is devoid of meaning or principle behind it, it's just that, a name.

Think about it: if you vote for a liberal like Hillary, or Rudy, just because they called themselves "Republican", yeah, you're a RINO.

[NucSubs]

Lucianne has become pathological in it Rudymania. I would say about 75-80% are pushing for Rudy. As I mentioned earlier I am on the verge of being banned there for "spamming".

Translation; I am one of the few (there are about five or six of us) who are trying to counter the Rudy-bot spin so when twenty Rudy-bots post two or three times each and we post seven or eight times in response we are "spamming".

It's depressing.

[Pox]

Keep dreaming.

Perhaps after you get off your knees from servicing RINO Rudy you will realize that your rabid pushing of that person for our candidate is not in the best interest of either the Republican party nor the country as a whole.

Mr. Thompson is the answer, not the RINO you endlessly pimp for.

[jude24]

someone who has actually served and been an influential member of Congress on defense issues as Chairman and now ranking member, with a son who has done duty in Iraq

That will only carry Hunter so far. Most voters look first and foremost for someone who aptly articulates what they are looking for. In a war-weary nation (and you can disagree with this war-weariness, but it is very real), being a defense committee chairman won't carry him very far. Having a son in the military will certainly engender respect, but it does not automatically lead to anyone's vote.

Hunter is the best possible choice. And he will make the best President. America needs Duncan Hunter.

Let's grant this for the sake of argument. I personally disagree (I myself am inclined towards Guiliani and Romney, given their history turning around lost causes), but will grant this for discussion. Even if Hunter is the best possible choice, even if he would make the best President, that doesn't mean that the American voter will agree. America, as a nation, isn't especially conservative. It can be cajoled into conservatism if the candidate is able to communicate it in a compelling manner (e.g. Reagan), but at the end of the day, they will vote for the guy who promises what they most want. In 2006, the promise was to get us out of Iraq. That may not be wise - and may not even be possible - but it is what the Country wants. When the Democratic nominee will run on a drawdown strategy, the Republican has got to be someone who can articulate that he has experience turning around lost causes. Being Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee won't be enough. Especially for someone who simply is not very charismatic and who has no name recognition.

[NucSubs]

But he's not running.

When he decides to run, he has my heart and my wallet.

[politicalwit]

Hell, they would vote for Hillary if she had the (R) behind her name. These people could care less about party platforms and principle. They think a liberal(R) winning over a liberal(D) is actually a win.

[MEGoody]

Rudy's ambition since 9/11 is to make a run for the presidency.

Way back in 2001, I remember a couple of posts on FR talking about him being a candidate in 2008. (Not that Rudy had already said he'd run, but that some were saying he'd be a good candidate.)

[areafiftyone]

Perhaps after you get off your knees from servicing RINO Rudy

How classy of you! (/sarcasm)

[jude24]

1. "National" polls count for nothing. If they did, Colin Powell would be President.

If Colin Powell ran, he would be President.

[JohnnyZ]

I've argued that a RINO is an impossibility, as a Republican is anyone that registers with the GOP

Perhaps you are not aware that the Republican Party has a platform stating its principles and beliefs. A liberal who registers Republican is, literally, a Republican in name only.

It's really very simple.

An overused term, perhaps, but a simple concept.

[Liz]

"No conflict of interest there (/s)"

Nice find, Cal.

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REPRESENTATIVE CLIENTS Bracewell & Giuliani: AOL Time Warner


GMJ is published by The Gallup Organization with support services from the Custom Publishing division of AOL Time Warner's Time, Inc. unit. For more information on the publication, go to http://gmj.gallup.com.

[NucSubs]

Yes. They do.

And while I see their point and think Rudy is marginally better than the Hildabeast, I am not prepared to jettison all my principals for "marginally better".

They seem more than willing to.

[xsmommy]

oh i always look for your posts! that is indeed enlightening. of course the rudyites are too busy looking for dark conspiracies of Fred in cahoots with McNut to bother reading your links to rudy's connections, financial and otherwise.