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Posted on 03/20/2007 6:13:16 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) leads Arizona Senator John McCain (R) by eighteen points in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. Giuliani now attracts support from 33% of those likely to vote in a Republican Primary. That’s consistent with his level of support for three of the past four weeks, but down from a spike to 37% last week.
McCain slipped another point last week and is supported by just 15% of those surveyed. That is the lowest level of support measured so far for a man recently was presumed to be the frontrunner for the nomination. Thirteen percent (13%) now support former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) while 10% prefer former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R). No other Republican attracts more than 2% support at this time.
Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Republican nominating contest every Tuesday. Results for the Democrats are updated on Mondays.
Among the 31% of Likely Primary voters who identify themselves as Very Conservative, Gingrich has a statistically insignificant lead over Giuliani. Romney is third among the Very Conservative while McCain is fourth.
Those who identify themselves as Somewhat Conservative prefer Giuliani over McCain by a 37% to 17% margin. Among political moderates in the GOP, 42% say they would vote for Giuliani, 20% for McCain, and 6% for Romney.
A separate survey found that 50% of all Americans voters would definitely vote against Gingrich if he is on the general election ballot. Just 20% would definitely vote for him.
Giuliani is the only candidate in either party who more people would definitely vote for than against. He also currently leads all Democrats in General Election match-ups. This includes Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Barack Obama, former Senator John Edwards, Governor Bill Richardson, and Senator Joe Biden.
McCain is essentially even with Clinton, Obama, and Edwards while leading Richardson and Biden.
Romney trails Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Other GOP hopefuls also trail Democrats in General Election polling.
The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 599 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted March 12-15, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
See a summary of all match-ups along with favorability ratings and perceptions of the candidates’ ideology. A summary is also provided for Democratic contenders.
They are attempting to pull Giuliani from the jaws of the homosexual lobby by trying to make it a state issue, or trying to tie other candidates into the same category. It won't work. It's one thing to be "tolerant" as Thompson is, and quite another to be an activist for the homosexual agenda.
The poll was done before the latest bubble of hope from those becoming desperate to beat Rudy. It was just two weeks ago that the RUMOUR popped up here. Now I realize that some FReepers believe all polls should accomodate the hopes and dreams of FReepers but that ain't going to happen.
What is particularly amusing is the belief that Thompson will eat into Giuliani more than he will McCain, Newt, and Romney. He will take twice as much from them as Giuliani.
it won't matter whose base Thompson eats into, as long as the party is saved from the liberal with 33% support.
Can you expand on this? Logic would dictate that Giuliani being the current leader has the most votes to lose.
"The Rudymites are pissing themselves over a Fred Thompson run." Why do you have to lie like that? There has been little or no concern expressed by the Rudyphiles and just a little analysis would show why Thompson is no threat.
Thompson would hurt Giuliani LESS than the others. He will take 5% from Newt, 5% from McCain, 5% from Romney, and 2% from Rudy. So his first poll will have him at about 17%, and will be in second place but still at least 12% behind Rudy. And I see little narrowing of that gap.
A caller to Babbin in for Reagan yesterday said it's that McCain has opposed the president and the party repeatedly, has frequently voted with Democrats.
McCain was mentioned by one of the senior guides at the Nixon Library and Museum in 1998 as a promising presidential candidate--and out of deference I did not get argumentative with him.
It's simpy puzzling how someone who parrots the Left's propaganda regarding Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo and did so for years could be considered for commander-in-chief today.
McQuisling, meet Turban Durbin, thank you very much.
Rudy Giuliani beating Clinton, Obama, Edwards at this stage.
Victory is job one.
"it won't matter whose base Thompson eats into..."
Obviously it matters a great deal. How could it not? If Thompson is more of a threat to the others than he is to Rudy how does that hurt Rudy?
Given the large field the winner of many state primaries could poll in the 30s. Now I do expect Hunter and some of the other marginal candidates to drop but if Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Newt, and/or Thompson are in to the last that will assure a Giuliani victory since the others are going after the same voters.
Sure. Rudy may have the MOST to lose but that does not mean he is most LIKELY to lose it.
Thompson is now the great conservative alternative hope so he will appeal to those who feel Rudy is not conservative enough. These anti-Rudy votes NOW go to Romney, the lesser candidates, or Newt NOT Rudy. So he doesn't lose there. McCain will bleed votes who have gone to him in desperation to defeat Rudy and McCain might even give it up and endorse Fred (which in my mind would be the only way he could become a major threat to Rudy.)
Most of Rudy's support believes him to be the best candidate available in spite of some of his past policies. So it is fairly firm.
All Thompson needs to do is win a plurality in enough states to win a majority of delegates to nominate. If Giuliani continues to track in the low 30 percentile, Thompson could take votes from McCain, Romney and yes, even Rudy and Hunter, to gain enough to win enough primaries.
I about 6 or 7 months, we will have a better handle on this. Right now is still far too early. Ask Howard Dean about early "insurmountable" leads.
I only learned Fred Thompson was someone to watch less than a week ago, and I doubt that was enough time to get him factored into polls. If you're intereseted in supporting him, I think you would be better off waiting a couple of weeks before polling him since most people are unlikely to know much about him as a candidate at this time. So you might get him down at the 2% level right now while he has the potential to get up to 10% or more once people realize who he is.
In any event, with Newt's town meeting setups I would definitely consider hiim a serious candidate. It's a pity his poll results are so awful, since I otherwise like the man.
Fred's less of a divisive figure than Giuliani, and I'm not sure why. Doesn't he have views that are quite similar?
In my book, Rudy's success in executive positions gives him a big edge, but I acknowledge that Thompson would be a much more formidable foe than any of the others supported by "true blue" conservatives.
D
Surely you jest. They differ on almost every single social issue: abortion, partial birth abortion, gun control, illegal border invaders, homosexual marriage/unions, etc.
Newt's been hinting for years, Thompson for 3 weeks, so it's not the same, but I agree Rasmussen was a little flat-footed. They should have had time to correct.
I fail to understand this bruhaha over thompson. Nobody knows who he is, i dont know what this notion of 'star' power is. Most people who watch tv rarely know the names of actors unless there big.
Even so, what the hell is so appealing about thompson? He's just a senator with an okay acu rating(86). He's never held an executive position.
have we already forgot the rule, that senators rarely are elected president?
Taking Thompson to task because of a lack of perfect conservative score is ludicrous. Thompson is vastly more conservative than Rudy. Rudy will never rise above the 35% mark once his views and history are known. America is still finding out who Rudy is. Americans know his face, his name and his determination well. They still don't know much else, and the "else" is a trainload going the wrong way.
I am still waiting, though, for ANYONE who shows he will fight the libs on ANYTHING. There are plenty of opportunities: Gonzolez, Libby, etc. So . . . waiting.
Do you realize that not one single mayor has ever been elected as President without first holding higher office?
Try telling that to the Thompson people - they never give you any accomplishments that Thompson did when you ask them to campare it to the other candidates. They only tell you how long he's been in the Senate and put that out as accomplishment and when you tell them the only thing he managed to accomplish in the Senate was co-sponsor McCain Feingold and help McCain get elected they get all cockeyed!
Were not talking about the mayor of podunk here.
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