All Thompson needs to do is win a plurality in enough states to win a majority of delegates to nominate. If Giuliani continues to track in the low 30 percentile, Thompson could take votes from McCain, Romney and yes, even Rudy and Hunter, to gain enough to win enough primaries.
I about 6 or 7 months, we will have a better handle on this. Right now is still far too early. Ask Howard Dean about early "insurmountable" leads.
First Thompson will have to announce and that needs to be yesterday. Every day he waits makes it more difficult for him. IF he announces, which I am doubtful about, he would have a shot at winning a few primaries but there will be no upsurge of support.
You keep confusing your wishes with objective realities. In six or seven months you will be still making excuses as to why no conservative can gain any traction.
Howard Dean NEVER had any significant lead. That campaign was hot air from day one and I, for one, told anyone who would listen that he would not be the candidate. There will be no comparable media conclave which decides to take Giuliani down as there was with Dean. He has neutralized it and become teflon like as was Reagan.
This Dean remark is totally common coming from those terrified by Rudy and totally false to boot.