Posted on 03/11/2007 11:53:15 PM PDT by jmc1969
There is always a moment during a raging battle when one side realizes that the field has been won, and the other side collapses in retreat and confusion. The curious thing about the Iraqi insurgency is that this moment has arrived, yet both the victors, in this case the Americans and the Iraqi government, and the losers, Al-Qaeda and the other jihadist groups, are reluctant to acknowledge it.
But make no mistake, the battle has been turned and we are witnessing the beginning of a jihadist meltdown.
Six months ago, many of the strategists behind the Sunni insurgency, faced with a more effective counterinsurgency effort, began to wonder just how long they could keep their momentum given their diminishing resources and talent. These strategists realized that their "resistance" would just peter out over time, as classical insurgencies tend to do. Some argued that, given one last push, the Americans would be sufficiently distressed to grab at cease-fire negotiations that would end with a hasty American withdrawal, leaving the insurgents to work things out with a much-weakened Iraqi government on more favorable terms.
Others, like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the organization founded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, saw that there was no future for their vision of establishing a Talibanlike state should these negotiations with the Americans get underway, which would only serve to strengthen the hand of the rival insurgent factions that counsel this course.
This sense that they were running out of time compelled Al-Qaeda to take a bold initiative of declaring the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq four months back, appointing the hitherto unknown Abu Omar al-Baghdadi as its head.
But this was a fatal strategic mistake for Al-Qaeda, a mistake that threatens to pull down all the other jihadist insurgent groups along with it.
(Excerpt) Read more at nysun.com ...
Al Qaeda's dreams were dashed when the dems won and dems coudn't pull off a pull out. Poor old Al Qaeda...
I mean this is from the innards of the enemy....
And we can have the Talisman Website pulled in there also...
Maybe that is more work than needed....just thinking that some here will want a second opinion on the document....as Nibras Kazimi has translated it....
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Oh Brother, Where Art Thou?
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There have been some inter-jihadist squabbles that have surfaced over the last several months that smell of a black-op—the case of ‘Abu Usamah al-‘Iraqi’ comes to mind—but today’s message from someone calling himself ‘Jihad al-Ansari’ and addressed to the head of the Islamic State of Iraq, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, seems to be the real thing; it genuinely reflects the bitterness that had crept in between the Al-Qaeda, the benefactors of al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State, on the one hand and the other jihadist groups active in Iraq.
In fact, a more excited observer (not me) would even go so far to call all that’s been happening of late a 'jihadist meltdown'. I certainly believe that enough bad-blood has been spilt that would forestall any attempts at reconciling Al-Qaeda with the other groups: there are multiple reports that Al-Qaeda is going all out to intimidate the Ansar al-Sunnah, 1920 Revolt Brigades and the Islamic Army in Iraq into submission and that there are running battles among these factions in Anbar Province and in the rural areas around Baghdad. Jolly good fun!
Below is my rough translation of some excerpts from al-Ansari’s letter that I found here (get it before it gets removed—it’s ruffling quite a number of jihadist feathers). Notice how al-Ansari plays up Iraqi identity (the dignity thing, and the date trees) to highlight the ‘foreignness’ of Al-Qaeda.
I have no idea who al-Ansari is supposed to be, or in whose name he is speaking, but he does seem to be talking from a certain level of authority, and with a manner that suggests that the Al-Qaeda leadership would know of him. Towards the end, al-Ansari publicly declares that he refuses to give his allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq.
The key sentence in there, which reflects what is happening inside the Sunni insurgency is “We have started to fear the fighters of Al-Qaeda more than we fear the Mahdi Army gangs.”
your welcome. Kazimi is an excellent source.
I will try to do this.
I read Mr. Kazimim translation, it is 100% accurate.
Without mentioning Mr Kazimi, FOX News just had a report entitled "Jihadist Meltdown" with Ralph Peters. Peters said he would not call it a meltdown but that things were better now than they have been in a year, and that the Murthas would be crazy to leave now. He said that the Sunnis in Anbar were beginning to fight against the foreign jihadists, and were looking to join the government. He called it a turning point.
That is excellent to hear.
Good to hear Fox picked up on the issue. More people will start to think a bit more concerning the Pelosi/Murtha smoke screen gang.
Frankly, it is high time the administration made an issue of the media's behavior.
They should be forced to publicly confront the consequences of their "reporting".
I submit that most Americans instinctively know the media is biased against the war and are intentionally reporting it in a misleading fashion. But, since the administration has not taken the media to task, adverse opinion hasn't been mobilized.
Excellent!
Hundreds Of Mahdis, Thousands Of Insurgents Detained
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The new counterinsurgency strategies of David Petraeus have shown remarkable initial success. USA Today reports that the US and Iraqi forces now employing the Baghdad security plan have captured thousands of insurgents as well as large numbers of Mahdi Army militia members -- and Moqtada al-Sadr has yet to poke his head above ground:
Coalition forces have detained about 700 members of the Mahdi Army, the largest Shiite militia in Baghdad, the top U.S. commander in Iraq said Monday.The militia, which is loyal to radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and has clashed with U.S. troops in the past, has mostly avoided a direct confrontation with American and Iraqi government forces, Gen. David Petraeus said in an interview with USA TODAY.
Some of the militia's top leaders have left the capital, and Iraqi government officials are negotiating with al-Sadr's political organization in an effort to disband the militia, Petraeus said.
"I think in part one reason that al-Sadr's militia has been lying low … is due to some of the discussions being held," Petraeus said in a telephone interview from Iraq. "It's also in part due to some of the leaders leaving Baghdad" and others being arrested, he said.
The seven hundred Mahdis are only the tip of the iceberg. The White House estimated that 16,000 other insurgents are held by US and Iraqi forces as well, making this sweep an early success. In fact, the burgeoning numbers of detainess require the US to send more military police to guard them.
Congress represents the only real long-term obstacle to success.
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Saudi Arabia is involved in a conspiracy to undermine the project of the Islamic State of Iraq, the group's leader has announced in online remarks, according to a report in Arabic on al-Jazeera Net.
In a recording of spoken remarks, published online, a voice attributed to the figure known as Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the group’s leader, accuses the kingdom of attempting to break its link with its “popular base” in Iraq, by funding other armed groups to attack it, and involvement in a media campaign against it.
The recorded remarks continue on to claim responsibility for operations around Iraq, including the brazen raid on Badoush prison, near Mosul, last week which freed scores of prisoners.
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