Jihadist Meltdown (A Must Read Article)

NY Sun ^ | March 12 2007 | NIBRAS KAZIMI

[jmc1969]

There is always a moment during a raging battle when one side realizes that the field has been won, and the other side collapses in retreat and confusion. The curious thing about the Iraqi insurgency is that this moment has arrived, yet both the victors, in this case the Americans and the Iraqi government, and the losers, Al-Qaeda and the other jihadist groups, are reluctant to acknowledge it.

But make no mistake, the battle has been turned and we are witnessing the beginning of a jihadist meltdown.

Six months ago, many of the strategists behind the Sunni insurgency, faced with a more effective counterinsurgency effort, began to wonder just how long they could keep their momentum given their diminishing resources and talent. These strategists realized that their "resistance" would just peter out over time, as classical insurgencies tend to do. Some argued that, given one last push, the Americans would be sufficiently distressed to grab at cease-fire negotiations that would end with a hasty American withdrawal, leaving the insurgents to work things out with a much-weakened Iraqi government on more favorable terms.

Others, like Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the organization founded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, saw that there was no future for their vision of establishing a Talibanlike state should these negotiations with the Americans get underway, which would only serve to strengthen the hand of the rival insurgent factions that counsel this course.

This sense that they were running out of time compelled Al-Qaeda to take a bold initiative of declaring the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq four months back, appointing the hitherto unknown Abu Omar al-Baghdadi as its head.

But this was a fatal strategic mistake for Al-Qaeda, a mistake that threatens to pull down all the other jihadist insurgent groups along with it.

[R.W.Ratikal]

It's often the case where the defeated refuse to acknowledge their defeat.

In World War II Hitler was to all extents and purposes defeated by July of 1942 when his armies were brought to a stop in Russia, Rommel was stopped and the Allies invaded North Africa. Hitler was finished but he kept on fighting until he ran out of resources.

For the Japanese the war was over after the battle of Midway in July of 1942 but it took three more years to bring them to their knees. Admiral Yammamoto, chief of the Imperial Japanese Navy, whose staff planned Pearl Harbor was against going to war with the U. S.

Yammamoto said that he could "run wild" for 6 months to a year but after that he could not guarantee victory. True to his prediction, from Midway on Japan was on the defensive but fought the long defeat.

[steve-b]

we are witnessing the beginning of a jihadist meltdown

You'll excuse me for cynicism after report after report of how the capture of "al-Qaeda's number two" (al-Qaeda, it seems has more Number Twos that The Village) had dealt a mortal blow to the enemy.

[Tribune7]

ping

[jmc1969]

Considering al-Qaeda no actually offical number two or three the US military which was putting out that crap a few years ago was making a public opinion mistake. Just like the administation made a PR mistakes in selling the war.

However if you doubt what the article says just read this.

---

Thursday's battle in the village of Amiriya, just south of Fallujah, highlights the ongoing battle between the Sunni tribes and al-Qaeda in Anbar province. At least 50 al-Qaeda were killed and 80 captured in the largest battles between al-Qaeda and Iraqi police, Army and the Anbar Salvation Council in Anbar province this year.

Once intelligence source claims the figure of 50 al-Qaeda killed is low, and the number is likely over 100.

The Iraqi police in Amiriya held off the attack, and radioed for backup from Iraqi Army, police and members of the Thurwa al-Anbar, the tribal militias assembled by the Anbar Salvation Council. U.S. air support was called in to help fend off the attack. The Anbar Salvation Council leader escaped as Army, police and tribal fighters poured into the village and routed the al-Qaeda force, which was estimated to be several hundred fighters.

But the full story, according to an American military officer and an American intelligence source, is that al-Qaeda in Iraq, under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq, assembled several hundred fighters to attack a prominent leader of the Anbar Salvation Council, the grouping of local tribes and Baathists, and former insurgents who now oppose al-Qaeda in Iraqi. The leader of the Anbar Salvation Council was to attend the funeral of one of those killed in last week's suicide bombing in Habbaniyah.

The Iraqi police in Amiriya held off the attack, and radioed for backup from Iraqi Army, police and members of the Thurwa al-Anbar, the tribal militias assembled by the Anbar Salvation Council. U.S. air support was called in to help fend off the attack. The Anbar Salvation Council leader escaped as Army, police and tribal fighters poured into the village and routed the al-Qaeda force, which was estimated to be several hundred fighters. Once intelligence source claims the figure of 50 al-Qaeda killed is low, and the number is likely over 100.

The New York Times claims "two groups that have had ties to insurgents, the Islamic Party Fighters and forces of the 20th Revolution brigade, counterattacked in support of the local residents." The proper name for the insurgent groups are the Islamic Army in Iraq, and the 1920s Revolution Brigades. And they also fought with Iraqi Army and police units.

The Islamic Army in Iraq, Jaish Al-Mujahideen, the 1920 Revolution Brigades and other elements of the Sunni insurgency are battling al-Qaeda in Anbar, and are fighting alongside government forces. Al-Qaeda countering by assassinating as many of the leaders of the Sunni opposition as possible. Last week's bombing of the Habbaniyah mosque, as well as the assassination attempt against Shiekh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha, the head of the Anbar Salvation Council, and yesterday's attack in Amiriya are part of a campaign to deprive the Sunni opposition of its leadership.

http://billroggio.com/archives/2007/03/the_amiriya_battle.php

[dennisw]

What you said is true. My post was not clear but was just about who is the biggest mass murderers in Iraq. Hands down it's the Sunni/Al-Qaeda terrorists. They bomb crowds of Shiites at least every other day

The Shiites, helped by Iran, are taking military actions against us but do not mass murder Sunnis anything like the way Sunni/Al Qaeda kills them

[jmc1969]

The Iraqi police in Amiriya held off the attack, and radioed for backup from Iraqi Army, police and members of the Thurwa al-Anbar, the tribal militias assembled by the Anbar Salvation Council. U.S. air support was called in to help fend off the attack. The Anbar Salvation Council leader escaped as Army, police and tribal fighters poured into the village and routed the al-Qaeda force, which was estimated to be several hundred fighters. Once intelligence source claims the figure of 50 al-Qaeda killed is low, and the number is likely over 100.

The New York Times claims "two groups that have had ties to insurgents, the Islamic Party Fighters and forces of the 20th Revolution brigade, counterattacked in support of the local residents." The proper name for the insurgent groups are the Islamic Army in Iraq, and the 1920s Revolution Brigades. And they also fought with Iraqi Army and police units.

The Islamic Army in Iraq, Jaish Al-Mujahideen, the 1920 Revolution Brigades and other elements of the Sunni insurgency are battling al-Qaeda in Anbar, and are fighting alongside government forces. Al-Qaeda countering by assassinating as many of the leaders of the Sunni opposition as possible. Last week's bombing of the Habbaniyah mosque, as well as the assassination attempt against Shiekh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha, the head of the Anbar Salvation Council, and yesterday's attack in Amiriya are part of a campaign to deprive the Sunni opposition of its leadership.

http://billroggio.com/archives/2007/03/the_amiriya_battle.php

[Edgerunner]

saving bump

[savedbygrace]

Most excellent.

[FastCoyote]

The Jihadis had to surge to push the 2006 election to the Democrats here. So they ran their surge before we ran our surge. But, they may very well have expended all their energy, so Bush might have this thing under control by summertime.

[Marine_Uncle]

I have a strong feeling the author is not writing fiction here.
One can see what he writes happening in real time. We should expect to continue to hear about a lot of high/medium level AQIR being fingered out as well as members of the other groups mentioned.
The IG meanwhile continue to iron out many of it's bad ministries, so even if Allawi and crew do not end up taking over, the Maliki lead IG just may prove to be shown worthy of finalizing what must be done in the way of stability and then vigorious rebuilding.
If Maliki does not come around in playing on an even playing field, then the Coalition governments will put even more pressures on him.
The Shia can no longer think they are going to role as Saddam did. They need the Coalition forces lead by the US in situ for another two years or so. And they need our monies.

[granite]

Perhaps jihad isn't "forever" after all.

[dervish]

This is Kazimi's Blog "Talisman Gate." Here is what he says on al-Baghdadi's non-capture/death:

"But the real silver lining to yesterday’s drama is that al-Baghdadi finally got a mention in the New York Times; the editors of the paper of record can no longer ignore the guy who is credibly taking credit for the vast proportion of the violence in Iraq, or his links to Al-Qaeda."


http://talismangate.blogspot.com/

and a link to the full article

http://talisman-gate.blogspot.com/2007/03/jihadist-meltdown.html

[okie01]

I hope this is true and not too optimistic!

Start with this: Over 70% of Iraqis made the effort to vote for their democratic government and constitution.

That includes almost all the Kurds, the vast bulk of Shi'ites and a majority of the Sunnis.

There has never, at any time, been anything resembling a broad-based opposition. Enough for an "insurgency", yes. But nowhere near enough for a "civil war".

Indeed, the opposition is itself fractionated -- as this piece points out. There is al-Qaeda, there are other Salafist jihadi, there are Ba'athists... And, on the other side, there is Mookie's little faction.

There aims are equally splintered. Some are concerned about the "Caliphate", some with sectarian slaughter, some are concerned merely with power.

Insurgents can survive only so long as the ocean of people they swim in either a.) support them and/or b.) fear them.

As noted by the electoral majorities, there is little support. And, as they are crushed and splintered, fear will evaporate, too.

Were it not for the MSM and the anti-American Democrats, this "war" would have been over two years ago. Without the daily ration of hope metered out to the insurgents by the MSM, they would have walked away from their camps a long time ago.

[FreeReign]

But make no mistake, the battle has been turned and we are witnessing the beginning of a jihadist meltdown.

And now for something completely ironic:

In other news today, Ron "Out Now" Paul announced is canidacy.

Link

[ArmstedFragg]

Throughout their long experience with a dictatorship, the majority of Iraqis have learned one primary survival skill: suck up to the guys who are winning. The factors included in the article have some resonance, but what we're seeing right now with tribal leaders suddenly developing the courage to take on Al Qaeda is primarily related to their calculation that, for the moment, we're the winning side. If we can keep that momentum, they'll happily help us get rid of Al Qaeda. If we lose the momentum, they'll flip again. This is a whole nation of people who've been intimidated in one direction or another for their entire lifetimes, stances on principle are few and far between.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

This might persuade doubters that there is indeed some serious feuding going on:

Oh Brother, Where Art Thou?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

meant to ping you also...document may still be on the website:

Letter referenced in previous posted link.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks for those links.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Were it not for the MSM and the anti-American Democrats, this "war" would have been over two years ago. Without the daily ration of hope metered out to the insurgents by the MSM, they would have walked away from their camps a long time ago.

And Cheney essentially said the Left was undermining our Military's efforts ..today.

[jveritas]

WOW!!! Thanks for the letter. I just read the text of the letter in Arabic. It written by someone called Jihad Al Ansari and addressed to Abu Omar Al Baghdadi the leader of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia (Iraq) according to the letter. The author of letter is strongly complaining against the actions of Al Qaeda in Iraq and how they are doing horrible deeds against the Sunnis in Iraq and that the situation is becoming very intolerable and that the Sunni Iraqis are going to stand up against Al Qaeda aggression if it continues as such. The letter was written on December 4 2006.

It is great to see terrorists fighting each others :)