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Rudy Can't Fail? Sure he can
Slate ^ | March 9, 2007 | Brad Warthen's Blog

Posted on 03/09/2007 7:23:16 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

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To: Congressman Billybob
.......Also, Republicans and not just conservative ones are hungry for victory, especially if Hillary is the Democrat nominee. The results of Clinton-McCain polls which will be taken regularly from now on, will also influence the odds of McCain on the Republican side.

As in, influencing how people "feel" they should vote?

Thank you for your informed post.

41 posted on 03/09/2007 8:17:16 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Congressman Billybob
McCain is in trouble with conservatives, for campaign finance "reform," for amnesty, and for various other errors. As a result, McCain's poll numbers will drop as time goes by.

And what happens to Rudy when people find out he was on the same side of both these issues as McCain? And is a follower of Global Warmingism to boot?

42 posted on 03/09/2007 8:22:10 AM PST by Ingtar (...right wing conservatives are growing tired of crawling on bloody stumps looking for scraps - JRob)
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To: Dog Gone
Where are the "undecideds" and/or independents falling?

Remember what happened back in 2000 -- when McCain built his campaign entirely on his ability to win (or do well) in states with open primary processes where people could vote in either the Democrat or Republican primaries.

In states with "closed" primaries where only registered Republicans were permitted to vote, Bush usually kicked the crap out of McCain by wide margins.

Which raises an interesting question . . . How many of the early primary states next year are open-primary states, and how many are closed-primary states?

43 posted on 03/09/2007 8:23:48 AM PST by Alberta's Child (Can money pay for all the days I lived awake but half asleep?)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
The leftist media is more afraid of Giuliani than any other candidate because he stands the best chance to win it all. The Republican primary will be his bigger test. With New York, Pennsylvania and possibly California in play, the Dims could not possibly take him in the general.

So I expect to see quite a bit of this from places like Slate as the R primary rolls on. The trouble is, the more they try to soften him up as too "liberal" for the Republican party, the more they help him with swing voters in the Fall. Therefore, I don't see a media frenzy against Rudy until or unless they can deliver a death blow. Mostly, it will be whispers like this.

Of course Giuliani can fall. But at this point, I think it is his to lose. Only McCain has the national stature and money to defeat Rudy, but McCain is too tainted to energize the right, and Giuliani captures the imaginations of the libertarian wing. It would take a major Giuliani gaffe at this point.

44 posted on 03/09/2007 8:24:40 AM PST by massadvj
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To: dmz

No real disagreement there. As Tom Wolfe would say (in The Right Stuff), "He screwed the pooch".


45 posted on 03/09/2007 8:30:02 AM PST by neocon1984 (end the idiocy of post-modernism)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
....if it's not Rudy, it won't be McCain.

I agree. Isn't McCain pushing for California to make it possible for Independents to vote in the primaries? I wonder if McCain is hoping he'll squeak through.....if it's not Rudy, it won't be McCain.

If Rudy isn't nominated I don't see McCain getting it either. I really don't think he is going to make it to the primaries. McCain is hoping to capture the votes of Independents, but from what we see in the polls they seem to be going for Rudy.

46 posted on 03/09/2007 8:47:20 AM PST by DKNY ("You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it." --Margaret Thatcher)
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To: massadvj
I keep seeing Rudy supporters refer to "New York being in play" if Rudy gets the nomination. Based on what?

In the November election an overwhelmingly Democrat state just became more Democrat and Hillary was re-elected with 70% of the vote. The New York GOP is a joke, what in world makes you think Giuliani has a chance in New York?

47 posted on 03/09/2007 8:58:39 AM PST by garv (Conservatism in '08 www.draftnewt.org)
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To: garv

Rudy was too scared to run against Hillary in the last election - he could have damaged her chances for POTUS or totally killed them. If he runs against Hillary for POTUS, I fear Hillary will win.


48 posted on 03/09/2007 9:01:27 AM PST by Dante3
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To: Dante3

I agree. Giuliani as the GOP nominee would be a disaster.


49 posted on 03/09/2007 9:09:17 AM PST by garv (Conservatism in '08 www.draftnewt.org)
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To: dmz

Caught a wiff of that crazy Casbah jive? The shareef don't like it


50 posted on 03/09/2007 9:11:26 AM PST by rockthecasbah (The Shillelagh resides in Heritage Hall)
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To: Alberta's Child
Which raises an interesting question . . . How many of the early primary states next year are open-primary states, and how many are closed-primary states?

I don't know. I'd love to find an article that discusses that issue, as it could have a big impact on both Rudy's and McCain's chances to capture the GOP primary.

Texas is probably going to move its primary to February 5, and it's the equivalent of an open primary state. You don't register by party in Texas. You're just a registered voter. You can vote in any party's primary, but your voter card is stamped to show which primary you voted in. You are then ineligible to vote in any runoff election occurring in the other party's races.

I don't know how much crossover will occur in open primary states, though. Both parties have interesting decisions to make. Back in 2000, everyone knew Gore had it locked up on the Dem side, and the Dem primary voters could make mischief in the GOP race.

But the truly independent voters still could affect the outcome in open primaries this year.

51 posted on 03/09/2007 9:19:21 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: garv
Hillary was re-elected with 70% of the vote.

But who was her opponent? It wasn't a serious race.

52 posted on 03/09/2007 9:22:10 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
This is enough to keep me from ever voting for Rudy. If he's willing to lean this far to the left now......well, you know how politicians act AFTER they're elected.

Giuliani is a different story. He supports taxpayer funding of abortion, sued gunmakers for selling guns, and went to court to keep New York City from giving the names of illegal immigrants to the federal government.

53 posted on 03/09/2007 9:39:44 AM PST by showme_the_Glory (No more rhyming, and I mean it! ..Anybody want a peanut.....)
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To: garv
The latest Quinnipiac poll has Rudy down by 10 in New York, and winning in both New Jersey and Pennsylvania. He has demonstrated that he can take a decidedly Democratic territory (one far more Democratic than the State of New York - ie, NYC). If he wins the primary, the general election will be an easier task for him. It will be like Schwartzenegger in California or Specter in Pennsylvania. The hard part for him will be winning the primary.

The real question at this point is whether the social conservatives want to cede their influence and relevance as they have in California, or do they want to accept compromise and help the party gets its majority back.

54 posted on 03/09/2007 9:49:11 AM PST by massadvj
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Help vanquish Rudy McRomney...



Freepmail me to join the Duncan Hunter Pinglist

Freepmail seanmerc to join the Veterans for Hunter Pinglist

Contribute to Duncan Hunter's Presidential Campaign -- http://www.gohunter08.com
55 posted on 03/09/2007 9:50:44 AM PST by Antoninus (I don't vote for liberals, regardless of party.)
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To: Dog Gone
But who was her opponent? It wasn't a serious race.

That's because the New York GOP is in such a shambles that they couldn't produce a serious candidate.

With a sitting Republican governor, albeit Pataki, they could not generate a competitive candidate for Governor or the Senate. There was talk of importing William Weld to run for governor, but I guess he thought better of it. The GOP lost the race for state comptroller to a sitting Democrat under indictment for misappropriation of state resources and who was forced to resign within a month of his re-election.

For all intents and purposes the GOP might as well not exist in NY state, does that bode well for a successful presidential run?

56 posted on 03/09/2007 9:54:58 AM PST by garv (Conservatism in '08 www.draftnewt.org)
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To: massadvj

That's how it looks to me too.


57 posted on 03/09/2007 10:00:01 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: DKNY
....if it's not Rudy, it won't be McCain.....

If some others don't make their move soon, then it will be a Democrat president.

58 posted on 03/09/2007 10:02:06 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: garv
.....The New York GOP is a joke, what in world makes you think Giuliani has a chance in New York?

Because he'll have a broader base of appeal.

59 posted on 03/09/2007 10:03:34 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Dante3
Rudy was too scared to run against Hillary in the last election ..

He was having chemo treatments for cancer, which made it impossible to mingle with crowds, be dynamic or able to run around the state. Shame on you.

60 posted on 03/09/2007 10:05:38 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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