Posted on 03/09/2007 7:23:16 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Robert Ariail had an idea for a cartoon for today that would have shown the GOP going off and leaving John McCain behind.
I asked him to explain it, and as is so often the case, he said it had something to do with reports that were all over television -- which he watches, and I don't. If I were to start watching TV news, I would do it as much as anything so that I could raise myself in Robert's estimation. He tends to respect my opinion on cartoons except when I say, "What's that about," and he throws up his arms and says "Everybody's talking about this." To which I sniff and say if it's a national story and it wasn't on the front of The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal, it must not be very important. But I'm just covering up for my own insecurity. We all triage our time. One way I do is to avoid television.
In this case, I talked him out of that particular idea on other grounds. But I later saw what he had been talking about. I went to the credit union and the tellers had FoxNews on a tube behind the counter. It was going on about a poll showing Rudy Giuliani substantially ahead. (And yeah, I probably should have seen that in the WSJ, but I didn't.)
I was unimpressed, not least because even if they had been trying to predict a particular primary within days before the vote itself, such results are notoriously unreliable. Primary voters are more difficult to predict than general.
But I think I know something about primary voters after all these years, and while I might prefer Giuliani to some seeking the GOP nomination, I don't see much chance that the partisans who turn out for these affairs will.
I want them to pick McCain, of course, but I realize they might not. One thing I feel pretty sure about, though, is that if they pick someone other than McCain, it won't be Rudy.
I don't always agree with the views touted by National Review, but its latest cover story, by Ramesh Ponnuru, makes a great deal of sense to me. An excerpt:
Actually, McCain’s campaign is doing better than it seems to be. It is true that the unpopularity of the Iraq War, and specifically of the surge he has long advocated, is dragging his poll numbers down. It is true as well that in many polls he is now behind Rudolph Giuliani.
But Giuliani is a useful opponent for McCain. The good news of the senator’s season is that another rival, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, has so far failed to unite the Right behind him. In a McCain-Romney race, Romney would have most conservatives and portions of the party establishment behind him — and might win the nomination. Giuliani is a different story. He supports taxpayer funding of abortion, sued gunmakers for selling guns, and went to court to keep New York City from giving the names of illegal immigrants to the federal government. Polls show that many Republican voters are unaware of these aspects of the former mayor’s record. It is hard to see how he wins the nomination once they learn about them. In a three-way race, some people who prefer Romney to McCain will nonetheless back McCain to head off Giuliani. This year, then, a real threat to McCain has failed to materialize — and a fake one has replaced it. McCain’s apostasies from conservatism, unlike Giuliani’s, are well known. The mayor’s polls form a ceiling. McCain’s could be a floor, if conservatives are willing to reconsider their view of him. If they do, then the current Giuliani moment will be succeeded by a McCain moment. I think conservatives will give him a second look — as they should.
Do you think he's right? Or do you think the GOP is actually more likely to go for Rudy?
Very telling.
I'm posting this because I'm interested in FReeper response to his blog/column - not just knee-jerk remarks about Giuliani or McCain but why he promotes this scenario.
Sing, michael, sing-on the route of the 19 bus
Hear them sayin
How you get a rude and a reckless?
Dont you be so crude and a feckless
You been drinking brew for breakfast
Rudie cant fail
So we reply
I know that my life make you nervous
But I tell you that I cant live in service
Like the doctor who was born for a purpose***
Rudie cant fail
I went to the market to realise my soul
cause what I need I just dont have
First they curse, then they press me till I hurt
We say rudie cant fail
We hear them sayin
Now first you must cure your temper
Then you find a job in the paper
You need someone for a saviour
Oh, rudie cant fail
We reply
Now we get a rude and a reckless
We been seen lookin cool an a speckless
We been drinking brew for breakfast
So rudie cant fail
Okay!
So where you wanna go today?
Hey boss man!
Youre looking pretty smart
In your chicken skin suit
You think youre pretty hot
In your pork pie hat
But...rudie cant fail
Look out, look out...
Sky juice!...10 cents a bottle!
(strummer/jones)
Okay. Now maybe we can have some interesting comments.
Oh he can fail but only on the issues.
LOL. You mean like post #2?
Of course he can fail. But he does have a ready-made campaign song if we pretend he can't (thank you, the Clash)
Do you just throw bombs or do you read the articles?
Did you read the article?
Do you understand the writer's wish?
I'm sorry, but what bomb did I throw? Post #2 (referring to a cross dresser was not mine, it belonged to someone else).
What he appears to be saying is that as people get a better look at Guliani, McCain suddenly starts looking better. He might have a valid point, but as he seems to say about predictions this early: they are just wild guesses.
No, I rarely read the articles are prefer to read just the comments or make a pointless one of my own. I thought that was the FR way.
IMO only Giuliani can beat Giuliani. But he really might - his temper has resulted in some really entertaining public tantrums. The real nomination questions are whether Hizzoner does it again, and who will still be in the race, and so able to replace Rudi, when he does.
I think the author misses the fact that conservative voters who disdain Giuliani are as likely to hate McCain's guts, too.
And Rudy's numbers keep rising while McCain's are falling. So his comment about a ceiling for Rudy and a floor for McCain are contrary to the evidence.
I'm sorry, that's an incorrect response. The correct response is "Thailand".
It's all me ace.
From my association with posters on FR, McCain is dead in the water. Interesting that this blog in Slate promotes him.
I'm supporting Rudy and I think he'll get the nomination. I could be wrong.
But I don't think I'm wrong about the fact that, if it's not Rudy, it won't be McCain.
Too bad. You might have had some wisdom to share.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.