Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didn’t fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didn’t air. Here’s our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Here’s why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the “enthusiastic support” of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives – even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats – yes, Democrats – support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
It’s happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate “owns” the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, it’s clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didn’t lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said “we do not agree on all things.” He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, “I made a mistake.” Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated he’s not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment – in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guiliani’s victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasn’t dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization that’s close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. It’s long since coeducational, but it retains a “drag” routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that it’s darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like you’ve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) won’t amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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Rudy is a liberal who has yet to be challenged on anything. He leads in the polls based on one major factor. Name recognition. This Presidential campaign is wide open and anything is possible. Lets have some debates and lets go through the primary process before anyone gets crowned the GOP nominee, let alone POTUS.
>>>>Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesn’t have two heads.
Rudy is a one headed liberal snake. The Clinton's are a two headed liberal snake. Two heads are better then one. ;^)
Way. Too. Early. To. Tell.
The other question is, do you want the Dems to win, no matter which party's candidate is elcted?
Your post is full of reason and levelheadedness. In other words, I agree.
And although social conservatives are against almost everything Rudy stands for socially, I find the reason to support him "because the war on terror beats all other issues" to be one of his weakest, not strongest areas. A candidate who says he's going to be strong on the war, but in fact will work hard to make sure our borders are porous, does not take the threat to this country seriously and is just giving it lip-service.
As a final point, there is no chance that terrorists will destroy this country. At worst they will kill many and destroy much, but the country as we know it will fight back and survive. If our country accepts ongoingly the social liberal positions espoused by Giuliani, the moral fabric of this country itself will have been destroyed and we will not only have rotted from within, we will have become more susceptible to following other once-great countries and empires wwhich have been swept into the dustbin of history.
So maybe Giuliani will win, but I won't ever vote for him, and I have my doubts that the founding fathers would have abandoned their beliefs in public and private virtue to support him either.
I would at least expect those who say they conservative to fight for conservatism until the lesser-desired candidate wins the primary. As it is, most of the Giuliani supporters are no better than a guy on your high school football team who kept proclaiming "we can't win, but I'll give you enough effort to finish third."
Well if he is going to carry all of the states you have mentioned will all of the Rudybots stop posting a new propoganda piece here every fifteen minutes.
ccording to you nad his robots, he has already won the nod.
So leave us poor misguided misfits alone here and let us wish for better days.
But Rudy is a liberal!
He dressed as a woman in a skit,,not uncommon. And nothing to get one into a lather.
A gay pride? So what. They vote too.
I was referring to you little remark, you little negative remark, as lame.
"If we are simply looking for anyone who can beat Hillary, why not support Obama?"
That's easy. Obama is for pornographers, sex offenders, gang members, and higher taxes, just to start. Giuliani is not. Obama's record here in Illinois has been to the left of Karl Marx.
Moreover, Giuliani will punish Islamic Revolutionaries. Obama will cuddle them. Giuliani will promote capitalism. Obama will promote socialism. The differences can be cashed out in so many issues-- universal health care, school choice, crime, free trade, lower taxes, less regulation of business, etc.
The only compromise conservatives will have to make is on a few social issues -- abortion, guns, and gays, where the worst case scenario is that Giuliani holds the national status quo. That's a small price to pay to keep clowns like Hillary and Edwards out of the White House and keeping the Republic safe from nuclear-armed madmen.
Agree.
And expect to be called every name in the book here for posting such an analysis.
Republican party splits and the democrats will split too. Let it split.
Billy bob, she had to get Billy to Selma, she is weak. The Left Coast are leving her in droves. Billy's impeachement lawyer just went to the dark side too.
IMHO she is toast already, she just has losts of money to collect.
Soon becasue she needs Billy helping her she will lose even more, because she will be seen as weak without her man Billy.
ping to post #82
When, precisely, did Republican operatives act as counterpoint to Democrat operatives? Certainly not in the White House or the Congress. The elite class has been running things as they see fit for a very long time. It is time a man of the street, a Trumanesque fighter, was given the reins.
We need fundamental changes in our society. The crop of candidates, with the exception of Rudy, are so PC it is sickening. The president decides very little but he does set the tone. We need a change of tone. I like Rudy's guts!
All temper tantrum talk, but no viable alternative candidate. And I mean "viable".
ping-a-rudy
That's really funny...compromise 75% of the Republican platform. What other jokes do you have for us?
Well now, just what little negitve remark ar eyou referring to?
The crossdressing one, the gay pride parade, or my tagline?
Mitt romney started radio advertising on the Rush show, today. Most of what people call social issues trace to the decline of monogomy, and I think we should eschew the three wivers for a paragon of virtue.
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