Posted on 03/05/2007 6:45:59 PM PST by Congressman Billybob
This weekend we were at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. All but one of the 2008 Republican candidates were there. The conservatives sought to buttress their support from the right, to seek the support of the whole party. Rudy Guiliani was there to show he doesnt have two heads. John McCain, to his disgrace and harm, did not bother to show.
We had a chance to hear the candidates. We came away with an conclusion which we shared with Bill Schneider of CNN in an interview. Since our mailbox didnt fill up with e-mails about that interview, we presume it didnt air. Heres our conclusion:
Rudy Guiliani will defeat Hillary Clinton to become the next President of the United States.
Heres why: Conservatives of different stripes, and on different issues, like Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, possibly Newt Gingrich, were at this conference seeking the enthusiastic support of the conservatives in the Republican Party. Each got some of that, with most of it at the CPAC meeting going to Mitt Romney.
But this is the simple, real world truth; the Republican Party consists of more than just the bedrock conservatives even if they were monolithic, which they are not. And the 51% that it takes to win a national election consists of more than just the Republican Party.
Look at the polls which have come out in the last two weeks. All show the same pattern. Guiliani leads among Republicans, and he also leads against all currently-known Democrats. Why is that? The answer jumps out of the statistics. Many more independents and Democrats yes, Democrats support Guiliani, than any other Republican.
On the other side of the equation, it seems clear that the Hillary Clinton juggernaut will roll over all challengers, beginning with Barack Obama, and extending to the hapless John Edwards. But her statistics in a general election are weak. She has more in-house support, from her own party, than any other candidate. But when you get beyond her party, she is the weakest candidate among independents and the opposite party.
Its happened before to both Republican and Democrat candidates. A particular candidate owns the nomination; no one could stop him (and now her). On the other hand, its clear even during the nomination process that this candidate would probably fail in the general election. Like lemmings, the party follows him (now her) over the cliff in the next election.
We watched something happen while Guiliani was speaking to the largely skeptical audience at CPAC. It demonstrated why those polling results are correct, and why Rudy will win both the Republican nomination and the general election.
First, he didnt lie to the audience, or tapdance around them. Repeatedly, he said we do not agree on all things. He went on to discuss the five points he thought mattered. One was education, about which Guiliani said, I made a mistake. Originally, he thought he could improve the public schools themselves. Now, he has concluded that only parental choice to take their children out of failed public schools, will force them to improve.
Admitting a mistake, and taking a new and better direction, is a rare and attractive quality in a politician. Rudy showed that.
But most of all, he concentrated on his factual accomplishments in years of public service. He demonstrated hes not just a man of words and slogans, but a man of accomplishment in a rough environment and against high odds. That quality, actually doing things rather than forever spouting vague promises and idle slogans, will lead to Guilianis victory over Hillary Clinton.
The last ditch defense of some conservatives against Guiliani is attacking his sexuality through pictures of him when dressed as a woman for a charitable group. I mean, what man hasnt dressed as a woman for charity?
Paint and Powder is a Baltimore organization thats close to a century and a half old. In the beginning, it was all male. Its long since coeducational, but it retains a drag routine in its shows. The largest men are cast as the females, and the smallest as the males, because that made the dances funnier.
I can vouch for the fact that its darned difficult to dance in high heels. I can also vouch for the fact that fishnet stockings make the soles of your feet look and feel like youve been standing on a waffle iron. No pictures survive of me in a wig and a Carmen Miranda dress. The American electorate can take a joke, and expect their politicians to be real humans rather than stuffed shirts. So, such attacks on Guiliani (or me) wont amount to a hill of beans.
Expect Guiliani to carry most of the Bush states plus several of the Kerry-Gore states, and win going away.
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About the Author: John Armor is a lawyer specializing in constitutional law, who may again be a candidate for Congress in the 11th District of North Carolina. John_Armor@aya.yale.edu
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How many times can you be wrong in 5 minutes? Billybob quickly admitted he did not include his fiance' traveling with him to Washington and that he should have mentioned this fact. He also quickly admitted that such an ommission would lead one to believe he was writing using the "royal we," and that by doing so could leave the wrong impression. Billybob likes to be precise and he knows he wasn't. No big deal.
What's wrong with Mitt Romney?
it often works because many of the swing voters who don't pay close attention hold conservative values. If a dem candidate can properly pay lip service to those values, they can win - because the MSM isn't going to call them on it, and the hardcore libs aren't going to expect them to live up to those conservative promises when elected.
Put that up against a candidate on the record wanting to ban guns and register all handguns & owners and the dems have a big advantage in the southern states that are now the GOP's power base in the electoral college.
Sorry, but once again...
I don't SPEAK Northeastern Yankee speak. :)
The Book of Mormon.
Wow --- what a crappy comment.
Aah, stop being so apocalyptic and just hold your nose and vote GOP. Sheesh. You'll live. I'd vote for whatever nudnick your dream candidate is as long as he defeats a Democrat.
This is Hillary we're talking about, dammit! Do I have to post pictures?
You are exactly right. I'm ashamed to admitt it worked on me several times. We have to be absolutely strict about saying no to gun grabbers. Let Rudy go back and run for governor of NY or something.
Better to lose to an actual enemy in the field than gut your own forces because you're pissing yourself with fear.
By the way, I'll call one as I see it. I see the bandwagon propaganda approach in most of the advocacy for Giuliani. To attempt the bandwagon approach against conservatives for such an evil purpose is to publicly insult us and to imply that we go away.
No, that was a direct, honest reply.
Damn straight I'm pissing myself with fear over President Hillary Clinton, Vice President Obama, and Secretary of State Bill Clinton.
Rudy has already attacked the Second-Amendment rights of everyone nationwide. What makes you think he won't do so again if given the chance?
It's a bigoted, ugly comment and if that's your position, I want no part of you.
If civil war is inevitable, would it not be better to have it occur while most of the people who know what this country is supposed to be about are still alive?
So I take that as an acknowledgment that you were completely offbase in questioning the author's veracity and presence at CPAC.
I don't have a reference for who said it first, but I'd rather have a polygamist who doesn't polyg, than a monogamist who doesn't monog.
There are a significant number of Mormons in national elected office, and I don't recall religion having been a problem for any of them. Romney's actions speak more of "family values" than Rudy's, and to me that matters more than the collection of books behind his faith.
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