Giuliani Has No Real Chance With GOP Voters . . . or Does He?

The Washington Post ^ | March 4, 2007 | Dan Balz

[Cincinatus' Wife]

The 2008 presidential campaign is just weeks old, but already an article of faith within the Republican Party -- the belief that no politician who favors abortion rights and gay rights can win the GOP nomination -- is being challenged by the candidacy of former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

...."This is the first Republican presidential primary since Sept. 11," said Ed Gillespie, ... "Rudy Giuliani is a candidate who can clearly test the proposition that a Republican who is more moderate on social issues can capture the nomination. He's testing it now."

....Whit Ayres, a Georgia-based Republican pollster, said he has been struck by the number of conservatives he has encountered who disagree with Giuliani on abortion or gay rights but are still attracted to him as a possible Republican nominee. ....

"It truly is the question in Republican presidential politics at the moment," Ayres said. "There are a lot of people with a more traditional view who think that his leading in the polls is just a mirage and that he has no real chance. I don't believe that. I think there's more to this than simply name ID. "

...A veteran Republican strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly assess the situation, said he is among those who long believed that a Republican with Giuliani's profile would have no chance. He still believes the former mayor faces significant obstacles but said the odds of Giuliani winning the nomination are not as remote as they once seemed.

He gave three reasons: the absence of a strong, traditional conservative in the GOP field; continuing antipathy among many social and religious conservatives toward McCain; and the prospect of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) becoming the next president.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Photo Credit: By Nikki Kahn -- The Washington Post Photo

<<<..."I think that people like him, and likeability is a big, big factor in presidential politics," a senior Republican strategist said. "Right now, I think his numbers reflect that. As you get closer to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, likeability may give way to vote-determinative issues, like abortion."

Said Ayres: "I don't think there's any question those issues will come into play. The question is, will they get traction?">>>

[joseph20]

The sooner the Rudy question is resolved, the better off we will be as a party.

[BonnieJ]

The "Rudy question" will be "resolved" along with the Mitt one, the John McCain one, the Duncan one, etc. When people start to vote in primaries. It will take a very short time to answer that question. Some of the other "questions", the second tier candidates, will be answered sooner...When they find the money isn't available, or the polling support either.

[narses]

Giuliani/Clinton/Dem vs. GOP Platform Comparison
Issue	Giuliani	Clinton	Dem Platform	GOP Platform
Abortion on Demand	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Partial Birth Abortion	Supports Opposed NY ban	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Roe v. Wade	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Taxpayer Funded Abortions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Embryonic Stem Cell Research	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Federal Marriage Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Defined at state level	Supports
Gay Domestic Partnership/ Civil Unions	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Openly Gay Military	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Defense of Marriage Act	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Amnesty for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Special Path to Citizenship for Illegal Aliens	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Tough Penalties for Employers of Illegal Aliens	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes	Supports
Sanctuary Cities/ Ignoring Immigration Law	Supports	Supports	Supports	Opposes
Protecting 2nd Amendment	Opposes	Opposes	Opposes Supports bans	Supports
Confiscating Guns	Supports Confiscated as mayor. Even bragged.	Supports	Supports Supports bans	Opposes
'Assault' Weapons Ban	Supports	Supports	Supports
Frivolous Lawsuits Against Gun Makers	Supports Filed One Himself	Supports		Opposes
Gun Registration/Licenses	Supports	Supports		Opposes
War in Afghanistan	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports	Supports
War in Iraq	Supports	Supports Voted for it	Supports Weak support	Supports
Patriot Act	Supports	Supports Voted for it 2001 & 2006	Opposes	Supports

"Most of Clinton's policies are very similar to most of mine." - Rudy Giuliani

Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do and how you do it.
Rudy Giuliani

We don't have to accept liberal Rudy. There are other options. This fellow may be the best one:







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Help spread the word: Purchase "Hunter for President" items. Proceeds go to the Hunter campaign.

[EQAndyBuzz]

Rudy is going to raise the money and be in it till Super Tuesday.

I keep asking the same question but get no response. If he does win the nomination, will Conservatives come out to vote for him?

[BonnieJ]

So many now claim they will not. I wonder if they will follow through with that. We can forgive making the mistake of letting the Clintonsn win with 3rd party votes in '92. None of us really understood just how evil and destructive they were then. Although many of us sure suspected it. But now...To vote 3rd party out of anger at the GOP choice and let them in again? That seems a crime to me. And certainly an enormous disservice to our country and to conservative causes for many years to come.

[joseph20]

If he does win the nomination, will Conservatives come out to vote for him?

In the case that Rudy wins the nomination, there will be no option but to vote for him in the general election.

At a time when our nation is at war, there is no room for a protest vote.

[jim35]

"...will Conservatives come out to vote for him?"

Some will boycott him, if he wins the nomination. Possibly an election-losing number. I'm not really sure how big a deal that would be, considering his many left-wing tendencies, and I hope it never comes to that.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

....If he does win the nomination, will Conservatives come out to vote for him?

I certainly will but my support makes others label me a liberal.

Oh well, let them, if that makes them feel better or if they believe those tactics will help win me to their corner (which seems to be shrinking).

[Drammach]

If he does win the nomination, will Conservatives come out to vote for him?

In my case, NO..

Then again, many Freepers would probably question my conservatism..
I'm probably more of a Gun-totin', Constitutionalist, Libertarian sort of Conservative...

On the other hand, many Libertarian Freepers would probably question my libertarianism..
Just can't win for losin'..

[familyop]

"I keep asking the same question but get no response. If he does win the nomination, will Conservatives come out to vote for him?"

I won't. If he's nominated we'll have, in effect, a one-party system, and very likely, a growing trend toward widespread anti-government and anti-corporate sentiment for many years.

[familyop]

"Oh well, let them, if that makes them feel better or if they believe those tactics will help win me to their corner (which seems to be shrinking)."

I don't pay much attention to the bandwagon approach rhetoric (keywords for search: "bandwagon approach")--even in reverse form (opposition-is-small approach).

The following is the result of a survey of 14,051 GOPUSA readers at the GOPUSA site!

GOPUSA Poll

Which candidate has the best chance of winning the 2008 Republican presidential nomination?

Sam Brownback
-- 7%

Bill Frist
-- 0%

Newt Gingrich
-- 19%

Rudy Giuliani
-- 13%

Chuck Hagel
-- 0%

Mike Huckabee
-- 1%

Duncan Hunter
-- 15%

John McCain
-- 6%

George Pataki
-- 0%

Condoleezza Rice
-- 5%

Mitt Romney
-- 10%

Tom Tancredo
-- 9%

Other
-- 10%

Total Votes: 14051

GOPUSA Poll

[4rcane]

I get the sense that the Main Stream Media is actually frighten of Guliani getting the Republican nomination. I think they believe that if its a run up between Guliani or any Democrat, Guliani will win. The MSM is hoping Republicans will not nominate Guliani by constantly reminding conservatives, Guliani is pro-choice

[Ronin]

Rudy is not my first choice, and maybe not even my second choice -- I am still hoping that Duncan Hunter gets enough traction to make it. But, come what may, I would still prefer him over any Democrat -- with the possible exception of Lieberman if only because I think he would be good foreign policy-wise.

One of the things that has always bothered me about Bush is that he is just too "nice" to the people we know are evil, doing evil things, and killing Americans while they're at it.

I want a President who has the gumption and the fortitude to tell the UN to put a sock in it. I want a President who is willing to tell the covert jihad-jockies of the world that we are not going to play pussy-cat with them and roll over while they finance an insurrection that is taking American lives, terrorists who are targeting Americans in our homeland, or in the homelands of our allies -- and most of all a President who is willing to tell the Congress to go pi$$ up a rope and veto a few bills.

Rudy plays hardball. I don't agree with his positions on gays or abortion or a lot of other things, but there is no question he has backbone and is willing to slice the raw, red meat.

[jim35]

["If he's nominated we'll have... a growing trend toward widespread anti-government and anti-corporate sentiment for many years."]

To say the least. I'm really about fed up with this new America that has sprung up over the last couple of decades.

I'm sick of the PC, the anti-Christianity, the defining down of deviancy, the constant encroachments on our freedoms, etc.

If the GOP can't do any better than nominating a pro-gay, anti-gun, pro-abortion, liberal-judge appointing RINO... then as far as I'm concerned, it's over for America.

We might as well join the EU.

[MadIvan]

One of my favourite things about Rudy is that he is the first politician anywhere, I can remember, who told the Saudis where precisely to shove their money along with their anti-Semetic nonsense. I practically guffaw when I think of how Rudy chased after the UN and kicked Arafat out of Lincoln Centre.

Regards, Ivan

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Here's another poll (a push-poll no less)

Giuliani up 25 points over McCain: poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican presidential hopeful Rudolph Giuliani, virtually tied with John McCain in a January poll, held a 25-point lead over the Arizona senator in a Newsweek magazine survey released on Saturday.

Among registered Republicans, 59 percent said they backed the former New York City mayor and 34 percent said they favored McCain, who announced on Wednesday he would seek the presidency in 2008, Newsweek said.

"Most registered Republicans are not familiar with Giuliani's positions on key social issues," the magazine said, listing his support for abortion rights and gun control as examples.

"When asked about whether Giuliani's views on these same issues would be enough to prevent them from supporting him, few registered Republican voters said it would," it said.....***

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=politicsNews&storyid=2007-03-03T222450Z_01_N03453364_RTRUKOC_0_US-USA-REPUBLICANS-POLL.xml&src=rss&rpc=22

[jim35]

I really loved that. Rudy is all right. Just not for a president.

[narses]

I keep asking the same question but get no response. If he does win the nomination, will Conservatives come out to vote for him?

Nope. Never. Get it?