The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is Transforming the VARYAG into an operational aircraft carrier

The Rising Sea Dragin in Asia Web Site ^ | March 3, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

HISTORY-TRANSFORMATION
In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, the second full-size aircraft carrier for the Soviet Union, the Varyag-sister ship to the Kuznetsov, was under construction in the Ukraine. Withe the Soviet demise, the Ukraine inherited the incomplete vessel but did not have the finances to complete her. In 1992 a Chinese delegation visited the Ukraine in the hopes of coming to terms on a purchase price of the unfinished vessel. A suitable purchase price was not agreed upon. Later, in 1998, the Chong Lot Travel Agency, a supposed Maccu firm, bought the Varyag from the Ukraine for $20 million dollars with the stated intention of making the Varyag a casino for commercial profit. As it turned out, Chong Lot had no offices in Maccu and was simply a front company for a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck Holding Co. Ltd. As it also turned out, the managing directors of Chinluck, had strong ties to the Chinese navy. It took three years for the front firm, Chong Lot Travel, to get permission to tow the Varyag through the Istanbul Straits and on to China. That permission was finally granted in 2001 and the following pictures document what has occurred to the Varyag since.

The Ukrainian Carrier Varyag in Ukraine Naval Yards, approximately 70% complete, prior to being towed away by Chong Lot Travel Agency.

The Chong Lot Travel Agency tows their newly purchased and rusting Varyag through the Istanbul Straits in late 2001.

The Varyag arrives in China at the end of its long voyage and is docked in the Chinese Naval shipyards at Dalian and in 2003
work begins on the vessel. In this time frame, not surprisingly, Chong Lot goes out of business.

Work continues on the Varyag in the Dalian naval shipyards throughout 2004, with several large cranes participating.

The Vayag spends several months of very expensive time in dry dock in the Dalian naval shipyards in 2005.

The Varyag emerges from dry dock painted in official Chinese Navy colors and the work of refitting her continues.

More painting and refit work contiues on the Varyag, now in official PLAN colors in 2005 and with flags flying for a VIP visit.

A Zinc Chromate primer is applied to the main deck in 2006 in Dalian. This is a primer for a non-skid surface to keep aircrafft from skidding off
of a carrier's main deck. Note the large storage and logistics facilities that have been constructed dockside to the right and behind the carrier.

The Zinc Chromate primer is covered over in 2006 in the Dalian naval shipyards.

The final non-skid surface appears to have been added to the Varyag's main deck in late 2006.

Varyag looking very trim and squared away in late 2006 at Dalian naval shipyards..

The forward portion of the Varyag in early 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem to be nearing completion.

AIRCRAFT
In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seem to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery expected in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to add another 36 SU-33s. In that event, the deal would total the $2.5 billion. The SU-33 fighter is the navalized version of the SU-27 fighter that China has purchased in large numbers from the Russians and now license builds themselves. It is the same fighter that the Russians use on their carrier, the Kuznetsov, which is the older sister ship to the Varyag. In addition, over the last two years, the Chinese have been negotiating with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter, which is the helicopter the Russians use on their carrier for AEW duties. The Chinese have also introduced designs for prop-driven AEW aircraft of their own similar to the United States E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. The continuing efforts by the PLAN to obtain navalized, carrier fighters and AEW aircraft from Russia (or design their own), coupled with the recent completion of a non-skid surface on the flight deck of the Varyag, and its painting in official PLAN colors, make it abudnantly clear that this vessel, at some future date, will be China's first aircraft carrier.

In 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians to purchase SU-33 naval fighters for carrier operations, receiving special demonstations at Moscow and Chinese military airshows.

Throughout 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter which is used for early warning (AEW) purposes, the same AEW helo the Russins use on their carrier.

ESCORTS
WHile all of this has been occuring, the PLAN has embarked on a phenominal naval ship building and modernization program, simultaneously working on ten to twelve new classes of major combatants and building several of each at one time. This program has already developed and launched all of the necessary modern classes of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, attack submarines, and supply ships to form the basis for a very powerful carrier strike group once a carrier is available...and to defend and supply it in the blue water, as the following pictures attest.

Two new modern, AEGIS-like area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS and PAR. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two of four modern and very powerful Russian destroyers built for the PLAN, specifically designed to hunt super-carriers.

Two new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile destroyers suitable for carrier escort duties and capable in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Two of six new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile frigates with VLS AAW and suitable for carrier escort duties in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

PLAN nuclear attack submarines, older HAN class (5) and two of the new Type-093 class capable of escoprt duties for a PLAN carrier.

The new class large at sea replenishment ships for the PLAN, capable of replenishing a PLAN carrier strike group.

CONCLUSIONS
It is this author's and researcher's opinion that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) will launch the Varyag in the 2008-2010 time frame and begin trials and training for her use as an operational aircraft carrier with a wing of SU-33 aircraft, perhaps modernized with vectored thrust and strike at sea and ground attack capabilities in addition to its already significant air superiority capabilites. Furthermore, this air wing will be supported by KA-31 AEW helos operating off the carrier in conjunction with other ASW and SAR helicopters. This training will be ongoing for several years as the PLAN gains experience in carrier operations, and will prepare them for the introduction of one or more of their own indigenous carrier later in the 2010 decade, which will include Chinese indigenous navalized aircraft and their own, more capable AEW and EW aircraft.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

Copyright © 2007 by Jeff Head

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[Alter Kaker]

In 1988, when the Soviet Union dissolved,

It's hard to take the rest of your post on your authority, when the first clause is just flatly wrong. Check your dates.

[WLR]

CONCLUSIONS

What it really means is the Chinese want an Aircraft Carrier on the cheap and to keep the US Comitted to maintaining ours.

Aircraft Carriers in subnational conflicts are great..

Soon they will be exposed as being totally vulnerable to Nation State Attack. They are expensive and outdated by modern Anti Ship Missiles which even non nuclear can saturate any anti missile defense system.

Large Capital Ships soon will be out of date. Dinosaurs waiting to die en masse.


W

[Jeff Head]

It's been at the shipyards for three years, spending months in dry dock. Very large storage and logisitics facilities have been built housing some large, indeterminate equipment.

There are no pictures of engines going in...but the amount of work, the dry dock time, the non-skid preparation all indicate that operational use is planned...ergo...engines will have to be included.

Time will tell.

[blam]

Ah so.

[Jeff Head]

Sorry, we disagree. Massive missile attacks will be charging into the teeth of the CSG defenses. Few nations have the capability to locate a carrier on the high seas that does not want to be found, to then launch enough aircraft to go after her, and then get close enough to her to fire enough missiles to saturate the capabilities of the 2-3 AEGIS escorts accompanying the carrier, and particularly in the EW environemnt that the US is VERY good at...meaning a whole lot of missiles are going to fail to locate the carrier even if they are close...or just fail altogether.

It is not as straight forward as you make it sound. it is much more likely, IMHO, that a sub surface attack will get to a carrier, but there as well the defenses are strong.

[swatbuznik]

This is sooo unsettling. Chinese ramping up, Russians selling off military property, Iran doing exercises, Pakistan launching missiles... and all the dems want to do is cut spending to the military? How oblivious can they be? This is more unsettling than the old cold war! I think the dems have made us look weak and now the wolves are circling to have a piece...

[Non-Sequitur]

There are no pictures of engines going in...but the amount of work, the dry dock time, the non-skid preparation all indicate that operational use is planned...ergo...engines will have to be included.

I admit that I haven't spent much time keeping track of it, but you don't just sneak them onboard. If they aren't in now then they'll have to cut holes in that newly non-skidded flight deck to install them. Just seems backwards to me. And if the Chinese do want a carrier then they've chosen a gold-plated way to go about it. For all the time, effort, and money they're sinking into this thing they could have bought two new ones from a Russian shipyard.

[chainsaw]

What did the Chinese rename the Varyag?

[Oztrich Boy]

Landings are arrested, I presume? If so, does that mean that due to the lack of an angled deck that bolters go along the length of the flight deck and back off the ski ramp again?

Yes arrested, but there is an angled deck

Russian Kuznetsov

[Carry_Okie]

Although the Chinese are apparently developing the ability to project power, I can't imagine how a navy that can be tracked by satellite and sunk with GPS guided weapons can survive against the United States Navy.

My guess is that, lacking anti-missile defense capability, the flotilla with the longest range missiles would win. I have serious doubts that the Chinese are so equipped, yet. Having been in the radar electronics business and witnessed the transfer of production to Asia, it won't be long before they can make the components, but putting whole systems together is another matter.

[SauronOfMordor]

For an aggressor, it is most advantageous to concentrate on building up their economy and industrial base first (which they have been busily doing ever since getting permanent Most Favored Nation status)

If you are the one who chooses the time and place to strike, you can defer military spending until it's almost showtime

[Strategerist]

I'm personally thrilled they're wasting money on the whole project.

[Strategerist]

If you are the one who chooses the time and place to strike, you can defer military spending until it's almost showtime

This is so amazingly beyond false it's laughable - particularly in the specific case of modern naval combat.

We're spending a lot of money and tens of thousands of man-hours analyzing and designing the ships that will start coming into service in 2035. Everything Naval has incredibly long lead-times now.

[Jeff Head]

The do have significant anti-air capability and are building more. In the last couple of years they have launched four area air defense destroyers and two multi-purpose destroyers with decent medium air defenses. At the same time they have purchased four strong Russian destroyers with good medium air coverage and built four of their own frigates with decent air defenses as well.

Their new class of Lanzhou AEGIS-like desroyers will be at the heart of these defenses, just like our true Ticonderoga and Burke AEGIS vessels are at the heart of ours.

THEIR AREA AIR DEFENSE DESTROYERS

OUR AREA AIR DEFENSE DESTROYERS

[Jeff Head]

No official name yet...but many believe that the name will be the Shi Lang.

[Jeff Head]

Reminds many people of the late 1930s buildup that preceded World War II.

[Jeff Head]

I personally believe that they are already in there. There have been several periods where absolutely no pictures have been available for many months...corresponding to tighter security measures. My personal belief it that eiother during the dry dock time or sometime just before that, engines could well have been installed.

[steveegg]

IMHO, it is more likely that either our own carrier aircraft, or one of our subs, would be firing the warshots that struck this vessel if it ever came to a shooting war.

I'd put my money on the ex-Varyag soaking up a couple of Mk48s on its belated journey to Davey Jones' locker.

[brothers4thID]

Just FYI, the USSR did not dissolve in 1988. Otherwise interesting reading.

[brityank]

Anyone else want to keep an eye on the Varyag? [Google Maps] ^

Also found an interesting site: Varyagworld.com ^

In November 1998, Cheng Zhen Shu, chairman of Chong Lot Travel Agency, has said that Varyag would become a multi-functional entertainment centre, with 600 room hotel, casino, discotheque, restaurants and night-clubs, and has called it Ocean Entertainment Centre.

In May 2005, the Varyag was placed in dry dock and, in early August, it emerged painted in People's Liberation Army Navy gray.

At that time Macau's casino magnate Stanley Ho announced the construction of  Oceanus,  an $800 million entertainment complex in Macau, with 600 room hotel, casino, cinema, retail and apartments, scheduled to open in 2009. It seems Stanley Ho lost the Varyag in transoceanic subterfuge and decided to have a new one.
Nowadays, presence and mystery of the Varyag is a cost-effective way that cause maximum intimidation against unsinkable aircraft carrier Taiwan.