The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is Transforming the VARYAG into an operational aircraft carrier

The Rising Sea Dragin in Asia Web Site ^ | March 3, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

HISTORY-TRANSFORMATION
In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, the second full-size aircraft carrier for the Soviet Union, the Varyag-sister ship to the Kuznetsov, was under construction in the Ukraine. Withe the Soviet demise, the Ukraine inherited the incomplete vessel but did not have the finances to complete her. In 1992 a Chinese delegation visited the Ukraine in the hopes of coming to terms on a purchase price of the unfinished vessel. A suitable purchase price was not agreed upon. Later, in 1998, the Chong Lot Travel Agency, a supposed Maccu firm, bought the Varyag from the Ukraine for $20 million dollars with the stated intention of making the Varyag a casino for commercial profit. As it turned out, Chong Lot had no offices in Maccu and was simply a front company for a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck Holding Co. Ltd. As it also turned out, the managing directors of Chinluck, had strong ties to the Chinese navy. It took three years for the front firm, Chong Lot Travel, to get permission to tow the Varyag through the Istanbul Straits and on to China. That permission was finally granted in 2001 and the following pictures document what has occurred to the Varyag since.

The Ukrainian Carrier Varyag in Ukraine Naval Yards, approximately 70% complete, prior to being towed away by Chong Lot Travel Agency.

The Chong Lot Travel Agency tows their newly purchased and rusting Varyag through the Istanbul Straits in late 2001.

The Varyag arrives in China at the end of its long voyage and is docked in the Chinese Naval shipyards at Dalian and in 2003
work begins on the vessel. In this time frame, not surprisingly, Chong Lot goes out of business.

Work continues on the Varyag in the Dalian naval shipyards throughout 2004, with several large cranes participating.

The Vayag spends several months of very expensive time in dry dock in the Dalian naval shipyards in 2005.

The Varyag emerges from dry dock painted in official Chinese Navy colors and the work of refitting her continues.

More painting and refit work contiues on the Varyag, now in official PLAN colors in 2005 and with flags flying for a VIP visit.

A Zinc Chromate primer is applied to the main deck in 2006 in Dalian. This is a primer for a non-skid surface to keep aircrafft from skidding off
of a carrier's main deck. Note the large storage and logistics facilities that have been constructed dockside to the right and behind the carrier.

The Zinc Chromate primer is covered over in 2006 in the Dalian naval shipyards.

The final non-skid surface appears to have been added to the Varyag's main deck in late 2006.

Varyag looking very trim and squared away in late 2006 at Dalian naval shipyards..

The forward portion of the Varyag in early 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem to be nearing completion.

AIRCRAFT
In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seem to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery expected in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to add another 36 SU-33s. In that event, the deal would total the $2.5 billion. The SU-33 fighter is the navalized version of the SU-27 fighter that China has purchased in large numbers from the Russians and now license builds themselves. It is the same fighter that the Russians use on their carrier, the Kuznetsov, which is the older sister ship to the Varyag. In addition, over the last two years, the Chinese have been negotiating with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter, which is the helicopter the Russians use on their carrier for AEW duties. The Chinese have also introduced designs for prop-driven AEW aircraft of their own similar to the United States E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. The continuing efforts by the PLAN to obtain navalized, carrier fighters and AEW aircraft from Russia (or design their own), coupled with the recent completion of a non-skid surface on the flight deck of the Varyag, and its painting in official PLAN colors, make it abudnantly clear that this vessel, at some future date, will be China's first aircraft carrier.

In 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians to purchase SU-33 naval fighters for carrier operations, receiving special demonstations at Moscow and Chinese military airshows.

Throughout 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter which is used for early warning (AEW) purposes, the same AEW helo the Russins use on their carrier.

ESCORTS
WHile all of this has been occuring, the PLAN has embarked on a phenominal naval ship building and modernization program, simultaneously working on ten to twelve new classes of major combatants and building several of each at one time. This program has already developed and launched all of the necessary modern classes of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, attack submarines, and supply ships to form the basis for a very powerful carrier strike group once a carrier is available...and to defend and supply it in the blue water, as the following pictures attest.

Two new modern, AEGIS-like area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS and PAR. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two of four modern and very powerful Russian destroyers built for the PLAN, specifically designed to hunt super-carriers.

Two new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile destroyers suitable for carrier escort duties and capable in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Two of six new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile frigates with VLS AAW and suitable for carrier escort duties in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

PLAN nuclear attack submarines, older HAN class (5) and two of the new Type-093 class capable of escoprt duties for a PLAN carrier.

The new class large at sea replenishment ships for the PLAN, capable of replenishing a PLAN carrier strike group.

CONCLUSIONS
It is this author's and researcher's opinion that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) will launch the Varyag in the 2008-2010 time frame and begin trials and training for her use as an operational aircraft carrier with a wing of SU-33 aircraft, perhaps modernized with vectored thrust and strike at sea and ground attack capabilities in addition to its already significant air superiority capabilites. Furthermore, this air wing will be supported by KA-31 AEW helos operating off the carrier in conjunction with other ASW and SAR helicopters. This training will be ongoing for several years as the PLAN gains experience in carrier operations, and will prepare them for the introduction of one or more of their own indigenous carrier later in the 2010 decade, which will include Chinese indigenous navalized aircraft and their own, more capable AEW and EW aircraft.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

Copyright © 2007 by Jeff Head

AVAILABLE AS A FREE ADOBE EBOOK DOWNLOAD TO ALL FREEPERS ---> HERE

[Jeff Head]

For all of those following Red China's phenominal naval buildup, and particularly those who have been following the fate of the former Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag.

[Jeff Head]

FYI, my latest on the PLAN activities with the Varyag.

[Aetius]

They sold it for $20 million?

Maybe the US should have bought it just to keep it out of Chinese hands.

[Jeff Head]

The Ukraine was anxious to get rid of it and scrapping it would probably have cost them millions. This way they got something for it.

But your point is well taken. Astute planners would have made a deal by offering 50% more just to tie it up.

As it is, the Chinese spent another $10 miiion towing it over to the shipyards and have spent tens millions since. But, if they do produce an operational carrier from it, they will have gotten a deal over producing one from scratch.

The costs will still mount as they will be spending hundreds of millions to billions on the aircraft and armamnet to outfit it.

[PGalt]

Great post/pics. Thanks.

[maui_hawaii]

Good work Jeff.

[FastCoyote]

Amazing pictures, someone put themselves at risk.

[Wildbill22]

Very useful for the Taiwan endgame. Carrier on carrier warfare for the first time in 70 years? It isn't nuclear powered though, if that would make any difference. In any event, it will probably cost more than $20 million to sink it.

[Jeff Head]

You are weclome. The overasll work being done in the Chinese neval shipyards is phenominal and there is no shortage of pictures of that work. Many who are still alive that experienced it comment that it is reminiscent of the Japanese and German naval buildup of the late 1930s.

[RayChuang88]

Alas, it if get into a shooting war it will soon be a target for this:

[Non-Sequitur]

So has anyone actually seen it underway yet?

[Sundog]

One picture I clearly remember -- not sure if it was from your site -- a scale aircraft carrier with planes on board, used inside one of their operations buildings, to figure how to position and move aircraft. It seems the ship was a fifty feet long or so, making each aircraft about a foot in size. That was the earliest picture I remember that showed their exact intentions.

[Jeff Head]

At my RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA site there are a lot more.

The sheer amount of naval shipbuilding is phenomincal. It is inescapable and the Chinese officially publish many pictures. but, your point is well taken because many of the pictures coming out are clearly from chinese workers or military personnel themselves who are taking pictures right at dock side where the vessels are clearly under gaurd.

Either way, there is no hiding or talking away the extent of the chinese naval buildup.

[Jeff Head]

It has not been underway yet. At the end of the article I post my own opinion that it will be launched in the 2008-2010 time frame. Clearly, until it is launched, it will not get underway.

[Jeff Head]

Those launchers on most of the Perry class frigates have been completely removed. In either case, it is unlikely that a Perry class frigate would get close enough to launch harpoons at the Varyag in a full, stand up, naval war.

IMHO, it is more likely that either our own carrier aircraft, or one of our subs, would be firing the warshots that struck this vessel if it ever came to a shooting war.

[Kakaze]

Thanks, Jeff

Great work as always. Is it just me or does that ship look unstable. I doubt that it is, I just wonder what it must look like below the water line to maintain its balance and stability.

Then again what does an old pilot know about boats:)

[Yo-Yo]

Some operational questions:

The Russians, the Indians, and now the Chineese are using SU-33s for their carrier operations. I understand that the aircraft, like the F-15 and F-16, has a greater than 1 to 1 thrust ratio, hence the ski ramp and lack of catapult gear.

Landings are arrested, I presume? If so, does that mean that due to the lack of an angled deck that bolters go along the length of the flight deck and back off the ski ramp again?

Does that also mean that fewer aircraft can be carried aboard because the entire length of the flight deck must be cleared of parked aircraft to accomodate bolters?

[Wuli]

"Maybe the US should have bought it just to keep it out of Chinese hands."

Now why do you expect something that intelligent to come out of Washington, D.C.??? /sarc

[Non-Sequitur]

It has not been underway yet. At the end of the article I post my own opinion that it will be launched in the 2008-2010 time frame. Clearly, until it is launched, it will not get underway.

If memory serves the Varyag was a hulk when it left the Ukraine, without engines, propellers, or electrical works. Has anyone seen the Chinese installing a main propulsion system?

[Jeff Head]

The do arrested landings, but they come in on an angled deck. Here is a picture of the sister ship of the Varyag, the Kuznetsov, which is operational with the russian Navy.

There are fewer aircraft than the US Navy because the vessel is smaller, and because there were provisions for large anti-surface missile launchers forward on the deck which bit into available hangar space.

BTW, the Indians will not be using SU-33s. They have elected to go with a navalized version of the Mig-29 for both the rework on the former Russian carrier they are receiving and on the indigenous carrier that they are now building.