The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is Transforming the VARYAG into an operational aircraft carrier

The Rising Sea Dragin in Asia Web Site ^ | March 3, 2007 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

HISTORY-TRANSFORMATION
In 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, the second full-size aircraft carrier for the Soviet Union, the Varyag-sister ship to the Kuznetsov, was under construction in the Ukraine. Withe the Soviet demise, the Ukraine inherited the incomplete vessel but did not have the finances to complete her. In 1992 a Chinese delegation visited the Ukraine in the hopes of coming to terms on a purchase price of the unfinished vessel. A suitable purchase price was not agreed upon. Later, in 1998, the Chong Lot Travel Agency, a supposed Maccu firm, bought the Varyag from the Ukraine for $20 million dollars with the stated intention of making the Varyag a casino for commercial profit. As it turned out, Chong Lot had no offices in Maccu and was simply a front company for a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck Holding Co. Ltd. As it also turned out, the managing directors of Chinluck, had strong ties to the Chinese navy. It took three years for the front firm, Chong Lot Travel, to get permission to tow the Varyag through the Istanbul Straits and on to China. That permission was finally granted in 2001 and the following pictures document what has occurred to the Varyag since.

The Ukrainian Carrier Varyag in Ukraine Naval Yards, approximately 70% complete, prior to being towed away by Chong Lot Travel Agency.

The Chong Lot Travel Agency tows their newly purchased and rusting Varyag through the Istanbul Straits in late 2001.

The Varyag arrives in China at the end of its long voyage and is docked in the Chinese Naval shipyards at Dalian and in 2003
work begins on the vessel. In this time frame, not surprisingly, Chong Lot goes out of business.

Work continues on the Varyag in the Dalian naval shipyards throughout 2004, with several large cranes participating.

The Vayag spends several months of very expensive time in dry dock in the Dalian naval shipyards in 2005.

The Varyag emerges from dry dock painted in official Chinese Navy colors and the work of refitting her continues.

More painting and refit work contiues on the Varyag, now in official PLAN colors in 2005 and with flags flying for a VIP visit.

A Zinc Chromate primer is applied to the main deck in 2006 in Dalian. This is a primer for a non-skid surface to keep aircrafft from skidding off
of a carrier's main deck. Note the large storage and logistics facilities that have been constructed dockside to the right and behind the carrier.

The Zinc Chromate primer is covered over in 2006 in the Dalian naval shipyards.

The final non-skid surface appears to have been added to the Varyag's main deck in late 2006.

Varyag looking very trim and squared away in late 2006 at Dalian naval shipyards..

The forward portion of the Varyag in early 2007 in Dalian. The hull and flight deck seem to be nearing completion.

AIRCRAFT
In October of 2006, the Kommersant online newspaper in Moscow announced a deal between Russia and China where the Russians sell up to 50 Su-33 fighters to China for $2.5 billion. Details seem to indicate that China will spend $100 million to buy two Su-33 fighters from Komsomolsk-on-Amur Production Association for evaluation, with delivery expected in 2007. There appears to also be a fairly firm option for 12 more Su-33 fighters, with the potential for the deal to add another 36 SU-33s. In that event, the deal would total the $2.5 billion. The SU-33 fighter is the navalized version of the SU-27 fighter that China has purchased in large numbers from the Russians and now license builds themselves. It is the same fighter that the Russians use on their carrier, the Kuznetsov, which is the older sister ship to the Varyag. In addition, over the last two years, the Chinese have been negotiating with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter, which is the helicopter the Russians use on their carrier for AEW duties. The Chinese have also introduced designs for prop-driven AEW aircraft of their own similar to the United States E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. The continuing efforts by the PLAN to obtain navalized, carrier fighters and AEW aircraft from Russia (or design their own), coupled with the recent completion of a non-skid surface on the flight deck of the Varyag, and its painting in official PLAN colors, make it abudnantly clear that this vessel, at some future date, will be China's first aircraft carrier.

In 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians to purchase SU-33 naval fighters for carrier operations, receiving special demonstations at Moscow and Chinese military airshows.

Throughout 2005 and 2006 the Chinese negotiated with the Russians regarding the KA-31 helicopter which is used for early warning (AEW) purposes, the same AEW helo the Russins use on their carrier.

ESCORTS
WHile all of this has been occuring, the PLAN has embarked on a phenominal naval ship building and modernization program, simultaneously working on ten to twelve new classes of major combatants and building several of each at one time. This program has already developed and launched all of the necessary modern classes of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, attack submarines, and supply ships to form the basis for a very powerful carrier strike group once a carrier is available...and to defend and supply it in the blue water, as the following pictures attest.

Two new modern, AEGIS-like area air defense destroyers for the PLAN, equiped with VLS and PAR. These ships would be very capable as escorts for a carrier.

Two of four modern and very powerful Russian destroyers built for the PLAN, specifically designed to hunt super-carriers.

Two new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile destroyers suitable for carrier escort duties and capable in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

Two of six new PLAN multi-purpose guided missile frigates with VLS AAW and suitable for carrier escort duties in ASuW, AAW, and ASW.

PLAN nuclear attack submarines, older HAN class (5) and two of the new Type-093 class capable of escoprt duties for a PLAN carrier.

The new class large at sea replenishment ships for the PLAN, capable of replenishing a PLAN carrier strike group.

CONCLUSIONS
It is this author's and researcher's opinion that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) will launch the Varyag in the 2008-2010 time frame and begin trials and training for her use as an operational aircraft carrier with a wing of SU-33 aircraft, perhaps modernized with vectored thrust and strike at sea and ground attack capabilities in addition to its already significant air superiority capabilites. Furthermore, this air wing will be supported by KA-31 AEW helos operating off the carrier in conjunction with other ASW and SAR helicopters. This training will be ongoing for several years as the PLAN gains experience in carrier operations, and will prepare them for the introduction of one or more of their own indigenous carrier later in the 2010 decade, which will include Chinese indigenous navalized aircraft and their own, more capable AEW and EW aircraft.

Jeff Head is an engineering consultant with many years experience in the power, defense, and computer industries. He currently works for the federal government helping maintain and protect regional infrastructure. He is a member of the U.S. Naval Institute, and is also the author of a self-published and best-selling series of military techno-thrillers called the Dragon's Fury that projects a fictional third world war arising out of current events. You can learn more about that series by clicking on the pictures of the novel covers below:

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

Copyright © 2007 by Jeff Head

AVAILABLE AS A FREE ADOBE EBOOK DOWNLOAD TO ALL FREEPERS ---> HERE

[ryan71]

Well that sucks. My first Ship was Deyo DD989. After all that time and money to fit the Spruance DD's with VLS, they decommission them all. I think it was a combination of Clinton budget cuts and the Navy making room for more Burkes (DDG-51), which is a fine ship.

Now, nearly all ships in a Carrier Strike Group are AEGIS/SPY equipped and extremely capable, but their numbers are small and they are stretched thin.

I'm anxiously awaiting the new DDX and CGX class ships but budget cuts and cost overruns may delay those ships for some time.

[Jeff Head]

DDX numbers are now projected to be only 8-12 vessels.

The Spruances were quiet and very good at ASW...and the trained for that. The Burkes are primarily AAW but being used in multi-role...and therefore spend less time training ASW than what the Spruances did.

When you add the loss of the Spruances to the fact that the S-3 ASW capability has been completely removed from the carriers...well, I am uneasy about it.

We are pinning a lot of hopes on the multi-role capability of the LCS...but they are smaller than the Perries were without as much endurance. Great for the littorals, but I do not believe strong enough for a CSG or even escorting PHIBRONS. BTW, all of the Standard Missile capabilities from all of the remianing 30 Perry class have been removed. Their only armament now is a single CIWS, a 76mm gun and the top tubes. AAW coverage is gone from them.

Anyhow, it sickens me to see the Spruances sunk. They would have been excellent for at the very least reserve duties. Semi-mothballed until needed.

[ryan71]

Spruances, especially those fitted with towed-array, like Moosebrugger, were excellent sub chasers. Add 2 LAMPS III Sea Hawks...

Even most of the the P-3's are gone. ASW wise, we've lost lots of platforms. Strange, considering there is a huge market for modern diesel electric subs all over the world.

[Jeff Head]

Today's planners figure that they will mostly stay in the littorals and so our carriers wont go there and we will build a fleet of 55-60 corvettes (LCS) to go in their and find them and tke them out.

But with AIP, I expect more and more Diesel/Electrics, which are extremely quiet, will be out in the blue water laying traps and laying for our capitol ships. Every sub in WWII was a diesel and their patrols took them all over the world. We cannot project our own thoughts on our enemies and posture just according to that.

Buils the LCS...go into the littorals and take the fight to them...but realize that some of them, maybe a lot of them, will be trying to take the fight to you too so keep that strong ASW capability, every bit of it, all around your carriers and other capitol ships. I believe we are going to need it.

When you add to that the unbelievable naval shipbuilding going on in China for major surface combatants, they are making it clear that they intend to come out into the blue water as well, with the subs, and take us on.

...of course, thank goodness for our own very quiet and capable SSNs because they may well be what we fall back on and put a lot of marbles into.

[cva66snipe]

I could see the Ukraine pulling diesels maybe, pumps or the like, but the rest would be cheaper to leave in place. Boiler technology is not very complex for a people with a determination to do it: and the ability to copy US turbines and generators from their power plants. And we KNOW they have been doing that.

The Ukraine would have had to put it in drydock to gut the engine room and taking the shafts means sealing some sizable holes. Like you said the rudders and screws are simple enough. The U.S. Navy usually removes and reworks them on a carriers every 5 year overhaul. The boilers could be pulled out but WHY would be the question.

Anything that goes in the engine room after the main deck is installed {hanger deck on the U.S. Carriers} means cutting them open and accessing by cutting down several decks. Even the galley ovens etc have to go in that way. Most stuff like that can be done in the three month yard period. The major stuff would be replaced in the overhaul if it could hold out.

I spent my last year while we were in a year long overhaul including 9 months drydock time. It was a great learning experience. You'll see places on the ship you'll never otherwise ever get to see like underneath the bottom of the ship LOL. I was T.A.D to the Fire Department and had to do fire safety inspections. During that time I made it a point to see every space I could possibly find especially the ones that were usually otherwise off limits. In one yard period some of us went through a boiler, out the exhaust, and up to the base of the stack.

[Jeff Head]

Here's a link to SinoDefense Forum and a thread I posted looking for those pics. They are all posted there now...the pics of the 1:100 scale model of the finished PLAN Varyag.

http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/showthread.php?t=2997

The airwing is largely outdated and not realistic. It will be SU-33s, and maybe some day a navalized J-10.

I'm pretty sure this is what you were talking about.

[Sundog]

Those are exactly the pictures and by implication, their intentions are perfectly clear. Thanks for pointing out the Sino Defense Forum. I have registered there.

[Jeff Head]

Glad to have been able to locate them for you...but the guy that really found them was a poster named swimmerXC over there whi is simply phenominal when it comes to finding pics of the Chinese Navy. You have a FRemail.

[Jeff Head]

Now that folks have been going over there to take a look at the pics...I thought I would post them here as well:

[Robert A Cook PE]

See!

It IS a museum ship! The Chinese had to buy the original just so they could make a realistic copy for the museum model!

No problem here....The Chinese make copies of foreign-bought equipment all the time....... What are we worried about?

[Ronin]

I like the idea of STOAL. It's a Russian invention, but so were a lot of things.

I wouldn't venture to guess about the numbers, but you'd probably be able to build two or three such carriers for the price of one new CVN -- and having that many flight decks available would be a heck of a force-multiplier and also allow us to reduce our CVN exposure.

[Jeff Head]

STOAL is great for the doctrine the old Soviets (and now Russians) used...and that is pure fleet air defense, ASW warfare, and very, very limited strike capability.

Our doctrine is different and it is one that inlcues those roles the Russians use, but adds the role of strike at sea, or on ground with our air wing, and the reason that our carriers are so much greater force multipliers is precisely because we use cats. That allows an air wing that can carry a lot of surface pounding ordinance, and it allows large AEW and EW aircraft to be embarked as well.

The Russian doctrine was basically one of using such carriers to help defend their submarine bastions at sea and so they have the airwing to mainly provide air coverage.

If we build smaller carriers (and we can) we should build them with cats...or if we go the STOL route, it will be along the lines of the Soviets, and that is to provide air coverage over carriers and to do ASW work, freeing the large decks for the strike role...which role, IMHO, is indespensable for sea control and for strategic power projections.

In a head up conforntation between one of our carrier groups and one of theirs, because of the huge advantage given by the larger, long range AEW aircraft, and the long distance, heavy ordinance strike capability of the air wing, the US carrier strike group will win virtually every time.

[Ronin]

Back in my Navy days they used to run C-1A's, old piston-driven, AV-gas drinking, cargo birds off the Connie without using the cats at all.

It can be done.

The Russians have a navalized version of the Frogfoot, and that's a good attack bird, if somewhat slow.

Maybe a combination -- Stoal ramp forward and a single waist-cat off the angle deck... I guess what I am saying is that I like the idea of having more flight decks available than we have with just the CVNs.

It goes back to what I said earlier on the other thread. CVNBGs are obviously the ultimate big stick, but we only have a limited number of them, they can't be everywhere, they are not that difficult to find if you have access to real-time ROSAT data and quite frankly are not needed in every case.

The JSF, with vectored thrust, would be a natural for a STOAL carrier.

Now I wouldn't want to send a single STBG up against a CVBG, but what about two or three of them? For the price of one CVN we could make them that way. Even more fun, buy them from Ukraine with hard dollars.

China is getting into carrier ops in a big way. They have to. The reason it is taking the Varyag so long to actually become operational is that they are spending as much time taking her apart bolt by bolt and studying how she was put together -- reverse engineering -- as they are putting her back together. And drawing their own conclusions from what they find.

You can bet your bottom Yuan that they already have several competing plans for the next series of ships and are arguing about them as we speak. And you can also bet money that the next series of ships will be built and launched a heck of a lot faster.

[Jeff Head]

I guess what I am saying is that I like the idea of having more flight decks available than we have with just the CVNs.

You can bet your bottom Yuan that they already have several competing plans for the next series of ships and are arguing about them as we speak. And you can also bet money that the next series of ships will be built and launched a heck of a lot faster.

Agreed on all counts.

The major disadvantage of STOAL is that those attack aircraft just cannot carry much ordinance or fuel...they are very limited in the strike role. And the AEW aircraft on every STOAL carrier in the world are helos, also very limited when compared to an E-2C type bird.

Now, get an AEW V-22 out there (and we really, really should) and this helps the AEW picture immeasurably for the STOAL.

Until that is done, I believe one large deck super carrier would in fact take on and take out two or three of these STOAL carriers. It could keep its distance, out of range of the STOAL strike groups, and it would know where they were much better with the AEW assets they have.

I still think we should have more of them because in terms of escorting PHIBRONS and large convoys in a major conflict, and in terms of giving aircover to, and major suppoprt to, ASW operations they would be invaluable and allow the large decks to do the strike packages.

They would also be invaulable in being combo'ed with a large deck carrier, providing the local CAP and major ASW thereby freeing up more birds on the large deck for strike and strike escort.

I believe we should have 14-16 big decks and 12-14 Sea Control STOAL decks.

[Ronin]

Trying to get into the head of the PLAN planners (heh) is tough, but let me try.

Can't take off with a full load of ordnance and fuel? OK, we configure one type of bird as a tanker, launch those first, then launch the strike birds with just enough gas to get into the air, hook them up with the tankers for a full bag, and off they go.

Obiously that is not as flexible as a USN CVBG, plus you don't have as many aircraft available, but it could be done.

Especially, I am thinking, if you configure the flight deck in a way that allows you to use the entire lenght of the ship AND the STOAL ramp.

Right now, unless I am mistaken, the USN is flying ONE combination strike/fighter bird off of all our carriers, the Hornet. No more A-6s, A-7s, or even S-3s. Yet, they obviously do the job. If we can figure that out, I am sure the ChiComs have figured a workaround.

I dunno. Given the political atmosphere in the Navy today, I think the brass would fight tooth and nail against anything except MORE full-sized CVNs, and would probably win the fight. Foolish in my book. If the ChiComs thought full deck CVNs were the way to go, they would be building them. They aren't -- and THAT worries me.

[Jeff Head]

Problem is for any heavy or long distance strike operations...the fuel weighs too, so getting a bird off the deck with enough fuel to fully fuel even one other strike aircraft is a problem. So, you end up with most of your air wing acting as fuelers for a very, very few strike aircraft...who themselves were limited in their ordinance to just get off the deck with enough fuel to be get tanked up.

The Chinese are going to launch the Varyag, and I believe it will be an operational carrier and used in the STOAL mode for ASW, for escort fleet air defense, and for very limited, relatively short ranged strike capabilities. They will learn with her. I fully expect that they will launch at least two full sized carriers in the teens.

Their designs are already out there. Project 81 in particular. I believe that the keel for at least one of them may already have been, or soon will be laid.

Now, these earlier pics lacked the angle deck, which was a problem. Newer pics from the PRC and their coneptual artists fix that.

[Stonewall Jackson]

I believe we should have 14-16 big decks and 12-14 Sea Control STOAL decks.

What numbers do you think we should have on cruisers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes (LCS), submarines, and amphibs in both active duty and reserve?

[Jeff Head]

I believe we should build and trhen maintain a naval force structure consisting of the following:

14-16 Large Nuclear Carriers
12-14 STOLA/Sea Control Carriers
14-16 LHA large deck Amphibs
14-16 LPD Amphibs (Like the San Antonio Class)
36 CGs (AAW)
48 DDGs (AAW-ASW)
18 DDGs (ASuW-ASW)
48 FFGs (Multi Purpose-ASW)
60 LCS (Littoral Multi purpose)
60 SSNs
30 SSKs (Modern AIP Diesel Electrics)
20 SSBNs
10 SSGNs

And then all of the air wings, patrol aircraft, smaller amphibs, replenishment ships, oilers, ammo ships, and other logistical ships to support it all.

A modern, 500 ship Navy that is maintained and keeps a good 100 ships (over and above the active 500) in the reserve fleet, ready for emergency commissioning in a crisis, and are rotated through as new technology and classes of vessels are implemented and the older ones retired.

Then, beefing up, modernizing and then maintaining the Coast Guard with the following force structure:

20 High Endurance cutters (National Security Cutters)
30 Medium Endurance Cutters (Offshore Patrol Cutters)
100 Coastal/Marine Patrol Boats (Fast Response Cutters)

And all of the helos, patrol aircraft, logistical vessels, and smaller vessels necessary to cover critical shore and waterways.

Although it may simply be a dream, I believe his level of effort effort is vital and necessary to allow us to maintian our pre-eminance on the high seas, protect our vital interests and the sea lanes between them, and maintain our technology and production base so that we can sustain those things for the long term.

[B4Ranch]

What percentage of the national budget would this defense program cost? What percentage of the national budget should we spend on defense?